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Food basket in Ouolofobougou

Bamako, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,801–4,471

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,518–4,818

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,450 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,801 and 4,471 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,518 and 4,818 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Ouolofobougou: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,450 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,801 and 4,471 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,518 and 4,818 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,058–4,013 3,397 2,895–4,175
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,900–4,193 3,392 2,776–4,625
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,801–4,471 3,310 2,772–5,978
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,608–4,612 3,241 2,342–5,694
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,518–4,818 3,071 2,103–6,419
Cost history (228 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,450
Jul 20263,000
Jun 20263,000
May 20263,000
Apr 20263,000
Mar 20263,000
Feb 20263,000
Jan 20263,000
Dec 20253,240
Oct 20253,600
Sept 20253,600
Aug 20253,600
Jul 20254,200
Jun 20254,200
May 20254,356
Apr 20254,320
Mar 20254,200
Feb 20254,200
Jan 20254,200
Dec 20244,560
Nov 20245,100
Oct 20245,280
Sept 20244,800
Aug 20244,800
Jul 20244,680
Jun 20243,672
May 20243,600
Apr 20243,600
Mar 20243,600
Jan 20243,456
Nov 20233,600
Oct 20233,720
Sept 20234,200
Aug 20234,200
Jul 20234,056
Jun 20233,600
May 20233,960
Apr 20234,200
Mar 20234,200
Dec 20224,500
Nov 20225,040
Oct 20225,400
Sept 20225,400
Aug 20225,160
Jul 20225,028
Jun 20224,956
May 20224,920
Apr 20224,728
Mar 20224,140
Feb 20223,600
Jan 20223,300
Dec 20213,228
Nov 20213,060
Oct 20213,000
Sept 20212,700
Aug 20212,760
Jul 20212,628
Jun 20212,460
May 20212,625
Apr 20212,625
Mar 20212,400
Feb 20212,400
Jan 20212,400
Dec 20202,520
Nov 20202,856
Oct 20202,928
Sept 20202,700
Aug 20202,700
Jul 20202,400
Jun 20202,400
May 20202,400
Apr 20202,400
Mar 20202,400
Feb 20202,400
Jan 20202,400
Dec 20192,220
Nov 20192,100
Oct 20192,160
Sept 20192,400
Aug 20192,616
Jul 20192,400
Jun 20192,400
May 20192,400
Apr 20192,400
Mar 20192,544
Feb 20192,916
Jan 20192,772
Dec 20182,616
Nov 20182,775
Oct 20183,000
Sept 20183,000
Aug 20183,000
Jul 20183,000
Jun 20183,000
May 20183,000
Apr 20183,000
Mar 20183,000
Feb 20182,844
Jan 20183,000
Dec 20173,072
Nov 20173,144
Oct 20173,300
Sept 20173,300
Aug 20173,060
Jul 20173,000
Jun 20173,000
May 20172,760
Apr 20172,700
Mar 20172,556
Feb 20172,400
Jan 20172,400
Dec 20162,400
Nov 20162,520
Oct 20162,400
Sept 20162,400
Aug 20162,400
Jul 20162,400
Jun 20162,400
May 20162,400
Apr 20162,400
Mar 20162,400
Feb 20162,400
Jan 20162,400
Dec 20152,520
Nov 20152,700
Oct 20152,700
Aug 20152,700
Jul 20152,700
Jun 20152,700
May 20152,700
Apr 20152,400
Mar 20152,400
Feb 20152,400
Jan 20152,496
Dec 20142,556
Nov 20142,700
Oct 20142,700
Sept 20142,700
Aug 20142,700
Jul 20142,700
Jun 20142,700
May 20142,700
Apr 20142,700
Mar 20142,700
Feb 20142,700
Jan 20142,700
Dec 20132,700
Nov 20132,700
Oct 20132,700
Sept 20132,700
Aug 20132,772
Jul 20132,700
Jun 20132,700
May 20132,700
Apr 20132,700
Mar 20132,775
Feb 20132,700
Jan 20132,820
Nov 20123,600
Oct 20123,840
Sept 20123,900
Aug 20123,900
Jul 20123,660
Jun 20123,600
May 20123,600
Apr 20123,600
Mar 20123,225
Feb 20123,075
Jan 20123,000
Nov 20112,400
Oct 20112,400
Sept 20112,100
Aug 20112,100
Jul 20112,100
Jun 20112,100
May 20112,076
Apr 20112,070
Mar 20112,028
Feb 20112,025
Jan 20111,950
Dec 20101,950
Nov 20101,920
Oct 20102,025
Sept 20102,175
Aug 20102,400
Jul 20102,400
Jun 20102,280
May 20102,175
Apr 20102,250
Mar 20102,280
Feb 20102,340
Jan 20102,250
Dec 20092,400
Nov 20092,400
Oct 20092,580
Sept 20092,760
Aug 20092,550
Jul 20092,400
Jun 20092,292
May 20092,100
Apr 20092,100
Mar 20092,100
Feb 20092,100
Jan 20092,100
Dec 20082,100
Nov 20082,175
Oct 20082,325
Sept 20082,400
Aug 20082,400
Jul 20082,340
Jun 20082,100
May 20081,800
Apr 20081,800
Mar 20081,800
Feb 20081,800
Jan 20081,800
Dec 20071,800
Nov 20071,800
Oct 20071,800
Sept 20071,800
Aug 20071,800
Jul 20071,800
Jun 20071,725
May 20071,776
Apr 20071,800
Mar 20071,800
Feb 20071,770
Jan 20071,800

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189