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Sorghum in San

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

159–259

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

149–266

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 159 and 259 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 149 and 266 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, San: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 159 and 259 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 149 and 266 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 414); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 188–222 201 177–276 287 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 169–238 200 155–314 269 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 159–259 197 128–404 259 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 151–266 193 121–414 252 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 149–266 191 113–345 245 –
Price history (210 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026200
Jul 2026200
Jun 2026213
May 2026200
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026200
Dec 2025200
Oct 2025200
Sept 2025215
Aug 2025231
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025250
May 2025250
Apr 2025250
Mar 2025250
Feb 2025250
Jan 2025250
Dec 2024250
Nov 2024281
Oct 2024325
Sept 2024325
Aug 2024350
Jul 2024340
Jun 2024281
May 2024250
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023250
Oct 2023250
Sept 2023250
Aug 2023250
Jul 2023250
Jun 2023250
May 2023250
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023250
Dec 2022250
Nov 2022288
Oct 2022330
Sept 2022375
Aug 2022375
Jul 2022369
Jun 2022356
May 2022350
Apr 2022325
Mar 2022300
Feb 2022275
Jan 2022240
Dec 2021225
Nov 2021215
Oct 2021200
Sept 2021200
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021175
Jun 2021175
May 2021175
Apr 2021175
Feb 2021150
Jan 2021150
Dec 2020145
Nov 2020130
Oct 2020153
Sept 2020175
Aug 2020150
Jul 2020150
Jun 2020150
May 2020150
Apr 2020150
Mar 2020150
Feb 2020143
Jan 2020131
Dec 2019150
Nov 2019125
Oct 2019125
Sept 2019150
Aug 2019143
Jul 2019125
Jun 2019131
May 2019150
Apr 2019160
Mar 2019175
Feb 2019175
Jan 2019175
Dec 2018175
Nov 2018175
Oct 2018195
Sept 2018225
Aug 2018225
Jul 2018225
Jun 2018225
May 2018225
Apr 2018215
Mar 2018225
Feb 2018218
Jan 2018200
Dec 2017200
Nov 2017206
Oct 2017225
Sept 2017225
Aug 2017207
Jul 2017178
Jun 2017175
May 2017175
Mar 2017150
Feb 2017150
Jan 2017150
Dec 2016175
Nov 2016175
Oct 2016175
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016175
Jul 2016175
Jun 2016169
May 2016150
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016150
Feb 2016150
Jan 2016150
Dec 2015169
Nov 2015175
Oct 2015175
Aug 2015181
Jul 2015175
Jun 2015175
May 2015156
Apr 2015150
Mar 2015150
Feb 2015150
Jan 2015150
Dec 2014150
Nov 2014163
Oct 2014175
Sept 2014175
Aug 2014175
Jul 2014175
Jun 2014175
May 2014175
Apr 2014175
Mar 2014175
Feb 2014175
Jan 2014175
Dec 2013175
Nov 2013175
Oct 2013175
Sept 2013175
Aug 2013175
Jul 2013175
Sept 2012238
Aug 2012250
Jul 2012255
Jun 2012275
Oct 2011175
Sept 2011162
Aug 2011150
Jul 2011150
Jun 2011150
May 2011150
Apr 2011150
Mar 2011150
Feb 2011150
Jan 2011150
Nov 2010144
Oct 2010150
Sept 2010150
Aug 2010150
Jun 2010150
May 2010169
Apr 2010175
Mar 2010175
Feb 2010161
Jan 2010162
Dec 2009150
Nov 2009155
Oct 2009156
Sept 2009200
Aug 2009200
Jul 2009175
Jun 2009172
May 2009156
Apr 2009156
Mar 2009150
Feb 2009150
Jan 2009144
Dec 2008125
Nov 2008136
Oct 2008146
Sept 2008175
Aug 2008175
Jul 2008175
Jun 2008155
May 2008138
Apr 2008125
Mar 2008125
Feb 2008125
Jan 2008125
Dec 2007125
Nov 2007125
Oct 2007125
Sept 2007125
Aug 2007125
Jul 2007125
Jun 2007125
May 2007125
Apr 2007125
Mar 2007125
Feb 2007125
Jan 2007102

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-900-65-retail-kg.