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Rice (local) in San

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

396–488

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

376–492

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 396 and 488 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 376 and 492 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), San: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 396 and 488 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 376 and 492 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 734); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 410–469 424 409–488 509 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 404–479 425 400–538 506 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 396–488 424 368–586 503 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 390–524 422 358–734 501 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 376–492 415 335–578 481 –
Price history (208 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026425
Jul 2026425
Jun 2026425
May 2026425
Apr 2026425
Mar 2026425
Feb 2026425
Jan 2026444
Dec 2025475
Oct 2025475
Sept 2025490
Aug 2025500
Jun 2025500
May 2025500
Apr 2025500
Mar 2025525
Feb 2025528
Jan 2025525
Dec 2024525
Nov 2024525
Oct 2024550
Sept 2024540
Aug 2024525
Jul 2024498
Jun 2024463
May 2024463
Apr 2024453
Mar 2024450
Jan 2024450
Nov 2023450
Oct 2023450
Sept 2023463
Aug 2023453
Jul 2023450
Jun 2023450
May 2023448
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023450
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022450
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022430
Jul 2022409
Jun 2022406
May 2022388
Apr 2022388
Mar 2022388
Feb 2022388
Jan 2022388
Dec 2021388
Nov 2021388
Oct 2021384
Sept 2021375
Aug 2021363
Jul 2021363
Jun 2021363
May 2021362
Apr 2021362
Mar 2021355
Feb 2021341
Jan 2021284
Dec 2020359
Nov 2020363
Oct 2020369
Sept 2020372
Aug 2020353
Jul 2020338
Jun 2020345
May 2020347
Apr 2020338
Mar 2020337
Feb 2020337
Jan 2020337
Dec 2019347
Nov 2019350
Oct 2019350
Sept 2019350
Aug 2019350
Jul 2019350
Jun 2019350
May 2019350
Apr 2019350
Mar 2019350
Feb 2019362
Jan 2019375
Dec 2018375
Nov 2018375
Oct 2018385
Sept 2018400
Aug 2018400
Jul 2018400
Jun 2018400
May 2018400
Apr 2018370
Mar 2018350
Feb 2018346
Jan 2018342
Dec 2017350
Nov 2017350
Oct 2017350
Sept 2017350
Aug 2017350
Jul 2017350
Jun 2017350
May 2017350
Apr 2017350
Mar 2017350
Feb 2017350
Jan 2017350
Dec 2016338
Nov 2016338
Oct 2016338
Sept 2016338
Aug 2016338
Jul 2016338
Jun 2016338
May 2016338
Apr 2016338
Mar 2016338
Feb 2016350
Jan 2016350
Dec 2015350
Nov 2015350
Oct 2015350
May 2015325
Apr 2015325
Mar 2015325
Feb 2015325
Jan 2015325
Dec 2014325
Nov 2014325
Oct 2014325
Sept 2014325
Aug 2014325
Jul 2014325
Jun 2014325
May 2014325
Apr 2014325
Mar 2014325
Feb 2014325
Jan 2014325
Dec 2013325
Nov 2013275
Oct 2013275
Sept 2013338
Aug 2013338
Jul 2013338
Sept 2012375
Aug 2012375
Jul 2012375
Jun 2012375
Oct 2011375
Sept 2011375
Aug 2011310
Jul 2011300
Jun 2011300
May 2011306
Apr 2011300
Mar 2011300
Feb 2011300
Jan 2011300
Nov 2010300
Oct 2010312
Sept 2010325
Aug 2010325
Jun 2010325
May 2010350
Apr 2010350
Mar 2010350
Feb 2010350
Jan 2010350
Dec 2009333
Nov 2009348
Oct 2009350
Sept 2009350
Aug 2009350
Jul 2009350
Jun 2009347
May 2009339
Apr 2009335
Mar 2009336
Feb 2009350
Jan 2009350
Dec 2008350
Nov 2008349
Oct 2008399
Sept 2008396
Aug 2008375
Jul 2008359
Jun 2008341
May 2008325
Apr 2008314
Mar 2008288
Feb 2008275
Jan 2008274
Dec 2007280
Nov 2007291
Oct 2007300
Sept 2007283
Aug 2007275
Jul 2007275
Jun 2007275
May 2007275
Apr 2007262
Mar 2007253
Feb 2007263
Jan 2007275

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-900-71-retail-kg.