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Food basket in San

Segou, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,041–3,636

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,882–3,636

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,400 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,041 and 3,636 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,882 and 3,636 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in San: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,400 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,041 and 3,636 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,882 and 3,636 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 7,442); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,269–2,993 2,427 2,228–3,692
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,084–3,286 2,401 1,860–5,311
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,041–3,636 2,387 1,853–5,810
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,006–3,861 2,355 2,002–7,442
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,882–3,636 2,288 1,630–5,126
Cost history (212 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20262,400
Jul 20262,625
Jun 20262,556
May 20262,400
Apr 20262,400
Mar 20262,640
Feb 20262,640
Jan 20262,400
Dec 20252,580
Oct 20253,000
Sept 20252,940
Aug 20253,072
Jul 20253,600
Jun 20253,300
May 20253,528
Apr 20253,600
Mar 20253,756
Feb 20254,056
Jan 20253,756
Dec 20243,600
Nov 20244,500
Oct 20244,800
Sept 20244,680
Aug 20244,800
Jul 20244,680
Jun 20243,672
May 20243,300
Apr 20243,000
Mar 20243,000
Jan 20243,000
Nov 20233,000
Oct 20233,000
Sept 20233,000
Aug 20233,000
Jul 20233,000
Jun 20233,000
May 20233,120
Apr 20233,600
Mar 20233,600
Dec 20223,600
Nov 20223,828
Oct 20224,680
Sept 20224,800
Aug 20224,560
Jul 20224,500
Jun 20224,428
May 20224,440
Apr 20224,440
Mar 20223,672
Feb 20223,300
Jan 20223,120
Dec 20213,000
Nov 20212,880
Oct 20212,400
Sept 20212,400
Aug 20212,400
Jul 20212,400
Jun 20212,400
May 20212,400
Apr 20212,400
Mar 20212,220
Feb 20212,100
Jan 20212,100
Dec 20202,256
Nov 20202,400
Oct 20202,400
Sept 20202,400
Aug 20202,340
Jul 20202,100
Jun 20202,100
May 20202,028
Apr 20201,800
Mar 20201,800
Feb 20201,800
Jan 20201,800
Dec 20191,800
Nov 20191,650
Oct 20191,500
Sept 20192,100
Aug 20192,016
Jul 20191,800
Jun 20191,800
May 20191,800
Apr 20191,920
Mar 20192,100
Feb 20192,100
Jan 20192,100
Dec 20182,100
Nov 20182,100
Oct 20182,340
Sept 20182,700
Aug 20182,700
Jul 20182,700
Jun 20182,700
May 20182,700
Apr 20182,580
Mar 20182,700
Feb 20182,616
Jan 20182,520
Dec 20172,700
Nov 20172,772
Oct 20173,000
Sept 20173,000
Aug 20172,820
Jul 20172,472
Jun 20172,400
May 20172,400
Apr 20172,100
Mar 20172,100
Feb 20171,956
Jan 20171,800
Dec 20162,100
Nov 20162,100
Oct 20162,100
Sept 20162,100
Aug 20162,100
Jul 20162,100
Jun 20162,100
May 20162,100
Apr 20162,100
Mar 20162,100
Feb 20161,800
Jan 20161,800
Dec 20152,028
Nov 20152,100
Oct 20152,100
Aug 20152,172
Jul 20152,100
Jun 20152,100
May 20152,100
Apr 20152,100
Mar 20152,100
Feb 20152,100
Jan 20152,100
Dec 20142,100
Nov 20142,256
Oct 20142,400
Sept 20142,400
Aug 20142,400
Jul 20142,400
Jun 20142,400
May 20142,400
Apr 20142,400
Mar 20142,400
Feb 20142,400
Jan 20142,400
Dec 20132,400
Nov 20132,400
Oct 20132,400
Sept 20132,400
Aug 20132,400
Jul 20132,400
Sept 20122,856
Aug 20123,228
Jul 20123,300
Jun 20123,300
Oct 20111,920
Sept 20111,800
Aug 20111,800
Jul 20111,800
Jun 20111,800
May 20111,800
Apr 20111,800
Mar 20111,800
Feb 20111,800
Jan 20111,800
Nov 20101,800
Oct 20101,950
Sept 20102,100
Aug 20102,100
Jun 20102,100
May 20102,100
Apr 20102,100
Mar 20102,100
Feb 20102,100
Jan 20102,100
Dec 20091,800
Nov 20092,100
Oct 20091,875
Sept 20092,400
Aug 20092,400
Jul 20092,175
Jun 20092,100
May 20092,100
Apr 20092,100
Mar 20092,040
Feb 20091,800
Jan 20091,800
Dec 20081,800
Nov 20081,980
Oct 20082,100
Sept 20082,100
Aug 20082,100
Jul 20082,100
Jun 20081,860
May 20081,650
Apr 20081,500
Mar 20081,500
Feb 20081,500
Jan 20081,500
Dec 20071,500
Nov 20071,500
Oct 20071,500
Sept 20071,500
Aug 20071,500
Jul 20071,500
Jun 20071,500
May 20071,500
Apr 20071,500
Mar 20071,500
Feb 20071,485
Jan 20071,392

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189