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Sorghum in Ségou Centre

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 28% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

141–245

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

129–281

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 14% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 141 and 245 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 129 and 281 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Ségou Centre: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 14% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 141 and 245 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 129 and 281 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 180–223 199 163–255 282 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 158–239 192 130–315 259 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 141–245 181 103–330 253 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 127–269 172 85.4–430 230 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 129–281 172 89–414 229 –
Price history (272 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026200
Jul 2026194
Jun 2026175
May 2026175
Apr 2026175
Mar 2026175
Feb 2026175
Jan 2026175
Dec 2025175
Oct 2025200
Sept 2025215
Aug 2025244
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025250
May 2025250
Apr 2025250
Mar 2025255
Feb 2025275
Jan 2025255
Dec 2024250
Nov 2024275
Sept 2024355
Aug 2024350
Jul 2024345
Jun 2024300
May 2024256
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024231
Nov 2023250
Oct 2023250
Sept 2023250
Aug 2023250
Jul 2023250
Jun 2023250
May 2023250
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023250
Dec 2022250
Nov 2022263
Oct 2022330
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022381
Jun 2022356
May 2022350
Apr 2022350
Mar 2022306
Feb 2022288
Jan 2022245
Dec 2021225
Nov 2021210
Oct 2021200
Sept 2021200
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021194
Jun 2021175
May 2021175
Apr 2021175
Feb 2021156
Jan 2021150
Dec 2020150
Nov 2020175
Oct 2020181
Sept 2020181
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020175
Jun 2020150
May 2020153
Apr 2020150
Mar 2020150
Feb 2020143
Jan 2020125
Dec 2019150
Nov 2019138
Oct 2019150
Sept 2019150
Aug 2019150
Jul 2019150
Jun 2019150
May 2019150
Apr 2019150
Mar 2019150
Feb 2019150
Jan 2019193
Dec 2018155
Nov 2018194
Oct 2018230
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018240
Jun 2018225
May 2018225
Apr 2018225
Mar 2018221
Feb 2018202
Jan 2018185
Dec 2017175
Nov 2017181
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017225
Aug 2017200
Jul 2017200
Jun 2017200
May 2017190
Mar 2017175
Feb 2017156
Jan 2017150
Dec 2016169
Nov 2016175
Oct 2016175
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016175
Jul 2016175
Jun 2016175
May 2016175
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016150
Feb 2016150
Jan 2016151
Dec 2015158
Nov 2015175
Oct 2015175
Aug 2015175
Jul 2015175
Jun 2015165
May 2015150
Apr 2015150
Mar 2015150
Feb 2015150
Jan 2015150
Dec 2014173
Nov 2014169
Oct 2014185
Sept 2014175
Aug 2014175
Jul 2014175
Jun 2014175
May 2014175
Apr 2014175
Mar 2014175
Feb 2014175
Jan 2014175
Dec 2013175
Nov 2013175
Oct 2013175
Sept 2013175
Aug 2013175
Jul 2013175
Jun 2013175
May 2013175
Apr 2013175
Mar 2013175
Feb 2013175
Jan 2013175
Nov 2012150
Oct 2012245
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012250
Jul 2012269
Jun 2012275
May 2012275
Apr 2012265
Mar 2012242
Feb 2012225
Jan 2012215
Dec 2011225
Oct 2011148
Sept 2011150
Aug 2011150
Jul 2011150
Jun 2011150
May 2011150
Apr 2011150
Mar 2011145
Feb 2011129
Jan 2011125
Dec 2010125
Nov 2010125
Oct 2010134
Sept 2010150
Aug 2010162
Jul 2010150
Jun 2010150
May 2010150
Apr 2010150
Mar 2010150
Feb 2010150
Jan 2010150
Dec 2009125
Nov 2009135
Oct 2009162
Sept 2009197
Aug 2009195
Jul 2009175
Jun 2009175
May 2009150
Apr 2009150
Mar 2009148
Feb 2009150
Jan 2009131
Dec 2008112
Nov 2008118
Oct 2008146
Sept 2008171
Aug 2008160
Jul 2008175
Jun 2008151
May 2008128
Apr 2008125
Mar 2008126
Feb 2008127
Jan 2008119
Dec 2007106
Nov 2007110
Oct 2007106
Sept 2007110
Aug 2007120
Jul 2007114
Jun 2007100
May 2007100
Apr 2007100
Mar 2007100
Feb 2007100
Jan 200785
Dec 200675
Nov 200684.5
Oct 2006112
Sept 2006125
Aug 2006129
Jul 2006125
Jun 2006128
May 2006125
Apr 2006125
Mar 2006125
Feb 2006130
Jan 2006105
Dec 2005114
Nov 2005119
Oct 2005149
Sept 2005225
Aug 2005212
Jul 2005216
Jun 2005181
May 2005169
Apr 2005150
Mar 2005145
Feb 2005135
Jan 2005106
Dec 200493
Nov 200487
Oct 200495
Sept 200480
Aug 200485.6
Jul 200475
Jun 200475
May 200475
Apr 200475
Feb 200475
Jan 200465
Dec 200364
Nov 200377.5
Oct 2003118
Sept 2003150
Aug 2003152
Jul 2003161
Jun 2003162
May 2003162
Apr 2003160
Mar 2003158
Feb 2003151
Jan 2003150

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-901-65-retail-kg.