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Rice (local) in Ségou Centre

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

376–468

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

364–486

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 376 and 468 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 364 and 486 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Ségou Centre: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 376 and 468 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 364 and 486 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 404–471 422 395–510 527 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 393–484 422 388–572 501 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 376–468 420 342–519 490 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 372–495 418 338–604 492 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 364–486 417 316–547 490 –
Price history (222 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026422
Jul 2026425
Jun 2026425
May 2026425
Apr 2026425
Mar 2026425
Feb 2026425
Jan 2026425
Dec 2025450
Oct 2025443
Sept 2025479
Aug 2025500
Jun 2025490
May 2025500
Apr 2025500
Mar 2025500
Feb 2025500
Jan 2025500
Dec 2024500
Nov 2024475
Sept 2024582
Aug 2024550
Jul 2024510
Jun 2024500
May 2024500
Apr 2024500
Mar 2024450
Jan 2024456
Nov 2023450
Oct 2023460
Sept 2023494
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023462
Jun 2023470
May 2023500
Apr 2023490
Mar 2023475
Dec 2022475
Nov 2022454
Oct 2022472
Sept 2022475
Aug 2022488
Jul 2022431
Jun 2022419
May 2022400
Apr 2022400
Mar 2022390
Feb 2022395
Jan 2022400
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021385
Oct 2021400
Sept 2021400
Aug 2021392
Jul 2021375
Jun 2021375
May 2021375
Apr 2021375
Mar 2021375
Feb 2021368
Dec 2020350
Nov 2020350
Oct 2020369
Sept 2020375
Aug 2020361
Jul 2020350
Jun 2020350
May 2020350
Apr 2020350
Mar 2020350
Feb 2020345
Jan 2020340
Dec 2019325
Nov 2019325
Oct 2019350
Sept 2019350
Aug 2019350
Jul 2019350
Jun 2019350
May 2019350
Apr 2019350
Mar 2019350
Feb 2019350
Jan 2019350
Dec 2018350
Nov 2018350
Oct 2018375
Sept 2018400
Aug 2018400
Jul 2018400
Jun 2018381
May 2018375
Apr 2018355
Mar 2018350
Feb 2018350
Jan 2018350
Dec 2017350
Nov 2017356
Oct 2017360
Sept 2017375
Aug 2017350
Jul 2017350
Jun 2017350
May 2017350
Apr 2017350
Mar 2017350
Feb 2017331
Jan 2017335
Dec 2016350
Nov 2016350
Oct 2016350
Sept 2016350
Aug 2016350
Jul 2016350
Jun 2016350
May 2016350
Apr 2016325
Mar 2016325
Feb 2016325
Jan 2016325
Dec 2015325
Nov 2015338
Oct 2015369
May 2015350
Apr 2015325
Mar 2015325
Feb 2015300
Jan 2015300
Dec 2014300
Nov 2014319
Oct 2014342
Sept 2014325
Aug 2014300
Jul 2014300
Jun 2014300
May 2014275
Apr 2014275
Mar 2014275
Feb 2014275
Jan 2014275
Dec 2013281
Nov 2013325
Oct 2013330
Sept 2013325
Aug 2013325
Jul 2013325
Jun 2013325
May 2013325
Apr 2013325
Mar 2013325
Feb 2013325
Jan 2013325
Nov 2012325
Oct 2012335
Sept 2012350
Aug 2012375
Jul 2012390
Jun 2012400
May 2012419
Apr 2012412
Mar 2012390
Feb 2012356
Jan 2012350
Dec 2011350
Oct 2011380
Sept 2011375
Aug 2011360
Jul 2011350
Jun 2011350
May 2011330
Apr 2011312
Mar 2011300
Feb 2011275
Jan 2011300
Dec 2010312
Nov 2010325
Oct 2010325
Sept 2010325
Aug 2010325
Jul 2010325
Jun 2010325
May 2010325
Apr 2010325
Mar 2010325
Feb 2010325
Jan 2010325
Dec 2009303
Nov 2009305
Oct 2009328
Sept 2009362
Aug 2009358
Jul 2009350
Jun 2009349
May 2009329
Apr 2009312
Mar 2009306
Feb 2009325
Jan 2009325
Dec 2008325
Nov 2008306
Oct 2008358
Sept 2008381
Aug 2008375
Jul 2008373
Jun 2008352
May 2008325
Apr 2008325
Mar 2008294
Feb 2008275
Jan 2008258
Dec 2007239
Nov 2007244
Oct 2007258
Sept 2007275
Aug 2007275
Jul 2007270
Jun 2007256
May 2007259
Apr 2007248
Mar 2007236
Feb 2007235
Jan 2007221

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-901-71-retail-kg.