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Maize in Ségou Château

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 33% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

136–209

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

134–251

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 33% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 136 and 209 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 134 and 251 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Ségou Château: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 33% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 136 and 209 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 134 and 251 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 425); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 159–197 175 147–217 283 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 147–198 173 147–242 256 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 136–209 166 121–274 239 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 132–236 163 119–425 233 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 134–251 163 120–425 232 –
Price history (225 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026175
Jun 2026175
May 2026175
Apr 2026175
Mar 2026175
Feb 2026175
Jan 2026175
Dec 2025212
Oct 2025200
Sept 2025215
Aug 2025225
Jul 2025244
Jun 2025250
May 2025250
Apr 2025250
Mar 2025231
Feb 2025250
Jan 2025231
Dec 2024225
Nov 2024231
Sept 2024310
Aug 2024300
Jul 2024285
Jun 2024250
May 2024225
Apr 2024225
Mar 2024206
Jan 2024213
Nov 2023206
Oct 2023220
Sept 2023250
Aug 2023250
Jul 2023250
Jun 2023250
May 2023250
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023250
Dec 2022250
Nov 2022250
Oct 2022285
Sept 2022325
Aug 2022325
Jul 2022325
Jun 2022325
May 2022325
Apr 2022319
Mar 2022281
Feb 2022275
Jan 2022255
Dec 2021225
Nov 2021215
Oct 2021219
Sept 2021231
Aug 2021215
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021190
Feb 2021175
Jan 2021169
Dec 2020150
Nov 2020160
Oct 2020175
Sept 2020169
Aug 2020160
Jul 2020144
Jun 2020125
May 2020125
Apr 2020125
Mar 2020125
Feb 2020125
Jan 2020125
Dec 2019125
Nov 2019138
Oct 2019150
Sept 2019150
Aug 2019150
Jul 2019150
Jun 2019150
May 2019150
Apr 2019150
Mar 2019150
Feb 2019150
Jan 2019150
Dec 2018150
Nov 2018150
Oct 2018180
Sept 2018218
Aug 2018200
Jul 2018200
Jun 2018200
May 2018193
Apr 2018180
Mar 2018175
Feb 2018175
Jan 2018165
Dec 2017150
Nov 2017156
Oct 2017180
Sept 2017200
Aug 2017356Data error
Jul 2017175
Jun 2017175
May 2017175
Apr 2017169
Mar 2017150
Feb 2017150
Jan 2017150
Dec 2016150
Nov 2016150
Oct 2016163
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016175
Jul 2016175
Jun 2016175
May 2016175
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016150
Feb 2016150
Jan 2016150
Dec 2015150
Nov 2015163
Oct 2015175
Aug 2015175
Jul 2015175
Jun 2015150
May 2015150
Apr 2015150
Mar 2015150
Feb 2015150
Jan 2015150
Dec 2014150
Nov 2014156
Oct 2014175
Sept 2014175
Aug 2014175
Jul 2014175
Jun 2014175
May 2014175
Apr 2014175
Mar 2014175
Feb 2014175
Jan 2014156
Dec 2013150
Nov 2013150
Oct 2013163
Sept 2013175
Aug 2013169
Jul 2013156
Jun 2013150
May 2013175
Apr 2013175
Mar 2013175
Feb 2013175
Jan 2013150
Nov 2012159
Oct 2012190
Sept 2012245
Aug 2012225
Jul 2012225
Jun 2012236
May 2012246
Apr 2012226
Mar 2012212
Feb 2012225
Jan 2012200
Oct 2011175
Sept 2011150
Aug 2011150
Jul 2011150
Jun 2011150
May 2011147
Apr 2011131
Mar 2011135
Feb 2011128
Jan 2011130
Dec 2010125
Nov 2010121
Oct 2010125
Sept 2010138
Aug 2010158
Jul 2010158
Jun 2010150
May 2010150
Apr 2010150
Mar 2010150
Feb 2010150
Jan 2010150
Dec 2009131
Nov 2009135
Oct 2009152
Sept 2009175
Aug 2009175
Jul 2009175
Jun 2009174
May 2009156
Apr 2009150
Mar 2009162
Feb 2009150
Jan 2009129
Dec 2008110
Nov 2008118
Oct 2008138
Sept 2008160
Aug 2008162
Jul 2008168
Jun 2008148
May 2008126
Apr 2008125
Mar 2008125
Feb 2008124
Jan 2008111
Dec 2007109
Nov 2007110
Oct 2007101
Sept 2007110
Aug 2007110
Jul 2007108
Jun 2007100
May 2007100
Apr 2007100
Mar 2007100
Feb 2007100
Jan 200778

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-902-51-retail-kg.