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Rice (local) in Ségou Château

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

377–478

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

360–506

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 377 and 478 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 360 and 506 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Ségou Château: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 377 and 478 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 360 and 506 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 407–479 425 386–514 535 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 396–496 427 373–583 511 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 377–478 424 325–522 499 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 372–513 422 328–676 498 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 360–506 419 294–602 494 –
Price history (221 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026425
Jul 2026425
Jun 2026425
May 2026425
Apr 2026425
Mar 2026425
Feb 2026425
Jan 2026425
Dec 2025472
Oct 2025450
Sept 2025479
Aug 2025500
Jun 2025495
May 2025496
Apr 2025500
Mar 2025500
Feb 2025500
Jan 2025500
Dec 2024500
Nov 2024525
Sept 2024587
Aug 2024550
Jul 2024510
Jun 2024500
May 2024500
Apr 2024500
Mar 2024450
Jan 2024456
Nov 2023450
Oct 2023460
Sept 2023500
Aug 2023450
Jul 2023452
Jun 2023480
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023475
Dec 2022475
Nov 2022454
Oct 2022477
Sept 2022475
Aug 2022495
Jul 2022425
Jun 2022419
May 2022400
Apr 2022400
Mar 2022400
Feb 2022400
Jan 2022400
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021390
Oct 2021400
Sept 2021400
Aug 2021392
Jul 2021375
Jun 2021375
May 2021375
Apr 2021375
Mar 2021360
Feb 2021350
Dec 2020350
Nov 2020350
Oct 2020369
Sept 2020375
Aug 2020361
Jul 2020350
Jun 2020350
May 2020350
Apr 2020350
Mar 2020350
Feb 2020342
Jan 2020335
Dec 2019325
Nov 2019325
Oct 2019343
Sept 2019350
Aug 2019350
Jul 2019350
Jun 2019350
May 2019350
Apr 2019350
Mar 2019350
Feb 2019350
Jan 2019350
Dec 2018350
Nov 2018350
Oct 2018375
Sept 2018400
Aug 2018400
Jul 2018395
Jun 2018387
May 2018375
Apr 2018355
Mar 2018350
Feb 2018350
Jan 2018350
Dec 2017350
Nov 2017350
Oct 2017375
Sept 2017375
Aug 2017356
Jul 2017350
Jun 2017350
May 2017340
Apr 2017325
Mar 2017325
Feb 2017325
Jan 2017325
Dec 2016325
Nov 2016331
Oct 2016350
Sept 2016350
Aug 2016350
Jul 2016350
Jun 2016350
May 2016350
Apr 2016325
Mar 2016325
Feb 2016325
Jan 2016325
Dec 2015325
Nov 2015350
Oct 2015369
May 2015350
Apr 2015300
Mar 2015325
Feb 2015300
Jan 2015300
Dec 2014300
Nov 2014313
Oct 2014350
Sept 2014331
Aug 2014300
Jul 2014300
Jun 2014300
May 2014300
Apr 2014300
Mar 2014300
Feb 2014300
Jan 2014300
Dec 2013300
Nov 2013300
Oct 2013325
Sept 2013325
Aug 2013325
Jul 2013325
Jun 2013325
May 2013325
Apr 2013325
Mar 2013325
Feb 2013325
Jan 2013325
Nov 2012306
Oct 2012327
Sept 2012347
Aug 2012338
Jul 2012358
Jun 2012396
May 2012398
Apr 2012393
Mar 2012366
Feb 2012350
Jan 2012350
Oct 2011372
Sept 2011356
Aug 2011345
Jul 2011325
Jun 2011325
May 2011310
Apr 2011294
Mar 2011275
Feb 2011256
Jan 2011290
Dec 2010300
Nov 2010297
Oct 2010300
Sept 2010300
Aug 2010300
Jul 2010306
Jun 2010300
May 2010305
Apr 2010300
Mar 2010300
Feb 2010296
Jan 2010297
Dec 2009294
Nov 2009272
Oct 2009308
Sept 2009341
Aug 2009350
Jul 2009345
Jun 2009329
May 2009321
Apr 2009320
Mar 2009321
Feb 2009312
Jan 2009322
Dec 2008325
Nov 2008309
Oct 2008356
Sept 2008381
Aug 2008375
Jul 2008362
Jun 2008348
May 2008325
Apr 2008316
Mar 2008276
Feb 2008262
Jan 2008252
Dec 2007250
Nov 2007262
Oct 2007268
Sept 2007275
Aug 2007275
Jul 2007275
Jun 2007274
May 2007275
Apr 2007262
Mar 2007250
Feb 2007250
Jan 2007236

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-902-71-retail-kg.