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Rice (local) in Shiango

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 22% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

297–421

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

269–403

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 297 and 421 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 269 and 403 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Shiango: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 297 and 421 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 269 and 403 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 676); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 324–396 345 314–480 447 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 304–399 340 287–543 417 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 297–421 337 267–615 412 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 290–436 333 257–676 400 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 269–403 325 209–421 387 –
Price history (192 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026345
Jul 2026336
Jun 2026313
May 2026319
Apr 2026338
Mar 2026338
Feb 2026338
Jan 2026328
Dec 2025338
Oct 2025360
Sept 2025381
Aug 2025408
Jun 2025376
May 2025395
Apr 2025438
Mar 2025438
Feb 2025438
Jan 2025438
Dec 2024438
Nov 2024431
Oct 2024459
Sept 2024525
Aug 2024500
Jul 2024463
Jun 2024419
May 2024438
Apr 2024450
Mar 2024433
Jan 2024372
Nov 2023363
Oct 2023375
Sept 2023400
Aug 2023453
Jul 2023436
Jun 2023382
May 2023444
Apr 2023463
Mar 2023450
Dec 2022438
Nov 2022422
Oct 2022428
Sept 2022488
Aug 2022459
Jul 2022416
Jun 2022390
May 2022388
Apr 2022384
Mar 2022375
Feb 2022368
Jan 2022363
Dec 2021363
Nov 2021356
Oct 2021363
Sept 2021364
Aug 2021368
Jul 2021350
Jun 2021350
May 2021350
Apr 2021350
Mar 2021350
Feb 2021344
Jan 2021304
Dec 2020325
Nov 2020325
Oct 2020325
Sept 2020325
Aug 2020325
Jul 2020296
Jun 2020295
May 2020325
Apr 2020325
Mar 2020300
Feb 2020300
Jan 2020292
Dec 2019285
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018375
Jun 2018350
May 2018375
Apr 2018356
Mar 2018331
Feb 2018312
Jan 2018300
Dec 2017300
Nov 2017300
Oct 2017325
Sept 2017350
Aug 2017350
Jul 2017326
Jun 2017300
May 2017325
Apr 2017325
Mar 2017319
Feb 2017300
Jan 2017300
Dec 2016300
Nov 2016300
Oct 2016300
Sept 2016325
Aug 2016325
Jul 2016300
Jun 2016300
May 2016313
Apr 2016325
Mar 2016306
Feb 2016300
Jan 2016280
Dec 2015275
Nov 2015275
Oct 2015294
May 2015350
Apr 2015325
Mar 2015300
Feb 2015275
Jan 2015275
Dec 2014275
Nov 2014275
Oct 2014317
Sept 2014300
Aug 2014300
Jul 2014275
Jun 2014275
May 2014275
Apr 2014275
Mar 2014275
Feb 2014275
Jan 2014302
Dec 2013275
Nov 2013273
Oct 2013275
Sept 2013275
Aug 2013275
Jul 2013271
Sept 2012300
Aug 2012305
Jul 2012306
Jun 2012325
Oct 2011332
Sept 2011338
Aug 2011341
Jul 2011338
Jun 2011299
May 2011315
Apr 2011304
Mar 2011276
Feb 2011261
Jan 2011250
Dec 2010246
Nov 2010252
Oct 2010266
Sept 2010268
Aug 2010275
Jul 2010260
Jun 2010259
May 2010265
Apr 2010272
Mar 2010264
Feb 2010269
Jan 2010264
Dec 2009263
Nov 2009260
Oct 2009292
Sept 2009311
Aug 2009338
Jul 2009320
Jun 2009319
May 2009338
Apr 2009330
Mar 2009310
Feb 2009304
Jan 2009300
Dec 2008306
Nov 2008308
Oct 2008290
Sept 2008359
Aug 2008338
Jul 2008347
Jun 2008335
May 2008322
Apr 2008328
Mar 2008275
Feb 2008263
Jan 2008248
Dec 2007225
Nov 2007225
Sept 2007250
Aug 2007236
Jun 2007225
May 2007250
Mar 2007225
Feb 2007225
Jan 2007225

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-903-71-retail-kg.