Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Food basket in Shiango

Segou, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,874–3,774

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,672–4,640

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,070 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,874 and 3,774 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,672 and 4,640 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Shiango: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,070 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,874 and 3,774 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,672 and 4,640 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 11,137); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,983–3,411 2,252 1,936–4,427
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,906–3,891 2,229 1,896–4,629
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,874–3,774 2,212 1,863–4,045
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,730–4,027 2,142 1,631–6,804
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,672–4,640 2,088 1,528–11,137
Cost history (199 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20262,070
Jul 20263,120
Jun 20263,120
May 20263,120
Apr 20263,120
Mar 20263,120
Feb 20263,120
Jan 20263,180
Dec 20253,480
Oct 20253,600
Sept 20253,696
Aug 20253,900
Jul 20253,900
Jun 20253,900
May 20254,080
Apr 20254,200
Mar 20254,020
Feb 20254,200
Jan 20254,020
Dec 20244,128
Nov 20244,356
Oct 20244,680
Sept 20244,716
Aug 20244,800
Jul 20244,572
Jun 20244,200
May 20243,600
Apr 20243,600
Mar 20243,600
Jan 20243,600
Nov 20233,600
Oct 20233,600
Sept 20233,720
Aug 20233,672
Jul 20233,792
Jun 20233,300
May 20233,600
Apr 20233,600
Mar 20233,600
Dec 20223,840
Nov 20224,200
Oct 20225,256
Sept 20225,400
Aug 20225,400
Jul 20224,800
Jun 20224,500
May 20224,548
Apr 20224,332
Mar 20223,684
Feb 20223,348
Jan 20222,976
Dec 20213,048
Nov 20212,892
Oct 20212,436
Sept 20212,280
Aug 20212,196
Jul 20212,076
Jun 20212,040
May 20212,010
Apr 20211,980
Mar 20212,028
Feb 20211,908
Jan 20211,740
Dec 20201,848
Nov 20202,136
Oct 20202,280
Sept 20202,112
Aug 20202,232
Jul 20201,992
Jun 20201,860
May 20201,860
Apr 20201,704
Mar 20201,560
Feb 20201,524
Jan 20201,584
Dec 20191,644
Aug 20182,760
Jul 20182,760
Jun 20182,760
May 20182,724
Apr 20182,640
Mar 20182,592
Feb 20182,544
Jan 20182,400
Dec 20172,412
Nov 20172,628
Oct 20172,580
Sept 20172,784
Aug 20172,760
Jul 20172,460
Jun 20172,376
May 20172,280
Apr 20172,148
Mar 20172,016
Feb 20171,860
Jan 20171,800
Dec 20161,920
Nov 20162,040
Oct 20161,980
Sept 20161,980
Aug 20161,980
Jul 20161,884
Jun 20161,896
May 20161,836
Apr 20161,800
Mar 20161,680
Feb 20161,680
Jan 20161,680
Dec 20151,800
Nov 20152,004
Oct 20152,232
Aug 20152,280
Jul 20152,280
Jun 20152,196
May 20152,100
Apr 20151,980
Mar 20151,980
Feb 20151,920
Jan 20151,860
Dec 20142,100
Nov 20142,136
Oct 20142,184
Sept 20142,400
Aug 20142,340
Jul 20142,292
Jun 20142,256
May 20142,160
Apr 20141,980
Mar 20141,980
Feb 20142,004
Jan 20142,088
Dec 20132,160
Nov 20132,184
Oct 20132,184
Sept 20132,220
Aug 20132,232
Jul 20132,130
Sept 20123,420
Aug 20123,420
Jul 20123,432
Jun 20123,456
Oct 20112,010
Sept 20111,800
Aug 20111,770
Jul 20111,770
Jun 20111,620
May 20111,530
Apr 20111,545
Mar 20111,548
Feb 20111,500
Jan 20111,541
Dec 20101,548
Nov 20101,431
Oct 20101,500
Sept 20101,620
Aug 20101,710
Jul 20101,932
Jun 20101,749
May 20101,650
Apr 20101,644
Mar 20101,620
Feb 20101,680
Jan 20101,780
Dec 20091,848
Nov 20091,767
Oct 20092,092
Sept 20092,440
Aug 20092,355
Jul 20092,184
Jun 20092,010
May 20091,935
Apr 20091,932
Mar 20091,894
Feb 20091,929
Jan 20091,896
Dec 20081,794
Nov 20081,836
Oct 20082,148
Sept 20082,230
Aug 20082,184
Jul 20082,182
Jun 20082,021
May 20081,759
Apr 20081,695
Mar 20081,656
Feb 20081,596
Jan 20081,482
Dec 20071,438
Nov 20071,433
Oct 20071,164
Sept 20071,234
Aug 20071,402
Jul 20071,295
Jun 20071,268
May 20071,230
Apr 20071,232
Mar 20071,231
Feb 20071,254
Jan 20071,245

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189