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Maize in Sikasso Médine

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 32% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

137–189

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

129–207

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 137 and 189 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 129 and 207 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Sikasso Médine: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 137 and 189 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 129 and 207 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 161–190 170 154–195 267 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 152–193 169 150–202 256 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 137–189 164 124–201 229 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 134–206 161 123–270 222 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 129–207 161 106–247 218 –
Price history (227 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026170
Jul 2026170
Jun 2026173
May 2026179
Apr 2026176
Mar 2026180
Feb 2026180
Jan 2026181
Dec 2025180
Oct 2025190
Sept 2025206
Aug 2025212
Jul 2025223
Jun 2025230
May 2025233
Apr 2025236
Mar 2025201
Feb 2025219
Jan 2025201
Dec 2024200
Nov 2024209
Oct 2024283
Sept 2024289
Aug 2024278
Jul 2024271
Jun 2024224
May 2024204
Apr 2024200
Mar 2024198
Jan 2024175
Nov 2023200
Oct 2023213
Sept 2023225
Aug 2023216
Jul 2023200
Jun 2023214
May 2023226
Apr 2023226
Mar 2023225
Dec 2022225
Nov 2022229
Oct 2022275
Sept 2022300
Aug 2022300
Jul 2022300
Jun 2022300
May 2022310
Apr 2022298
Mar 2022250
Feb 2022238
Jan 2022226
Dec 2021219
Nov 2021201
Oct 2021221
Sept 2021225
Aug 2021216
Jul 2021188
Jun 2021176
May 2021176
Apr 2021176
Mar 2021176
Feb 2021167
Jan 2021135
Dec 2020125
Nov 2020136
Oct 2020150
Sept 2020148
Aug 2020138
Jul 2020125
Jun 2020125
May 2020125
Apr 2020125
Mar 2020125
Feb 2020124
Jan 2020124
Dec 2019125
Nov 2019125
Oct 2019125
Sept 2019125
Aug 2019125
Jul 2019125
Jun 2019125
May 2019125
Apr 2019125
Mar 2019125
Feb 2019125
Jan 2019128
Dec 2018125
Nov 2018128
Oct 2018167
Sept 2018200
Aug 2018191
Jul 2018176
Jun 2018175
May 2018175
Apr 2018174
Mar 2018160
Feb 2018152
Jan 2018149
Dec 2017141
Nov 2017142
Oct 2017162
Sept 2017157
Aug 2017375Data error
Jul 2017140
Jun 2017140
May 2017139
Apr 2017128
Mar 2017126
Feb 2017126
Jan 2017126
Dec 2016132
Nov 2016127
Oct 2016143
Sept 2016148
Aug 2016146
Jul 2016148
Jun 2016149
May 2016146
Apr 2016128
Mar 2016125
Feb 2016125
Jan 2016125
Dec 2015125
Nov 2015138
Oct 2015166
Aug 2015146
Jul 2015145
Jun 2015144
May 2015129
Apr 2015124
Mar 2015116
Feb 2015109
Jan 2015114
Dec 2014113
Nov 2014118
Oct 2014129
Sept 2014127
Aug 2014125
Jul 2014125
Jun 2014125
May 2014124
Apr 2014125
Mar 2014125
Feb 2014125
Jan 2014125
Dec 2013125
Nov 2013125
Oct 2013129
Sept 2013133
Aug 2013137
Jul 2013136
Jun 2013138
May 2013141
Apr 2013140
Mar 2013141
Feb 2013134
Jan 2013125
Nov 2012146
Oct 2012164
Sept 2012213
Aug 2012202
Jul 2012213
Jun 2012215
May 2012217
Apr 2012192
Mar 2012182
Feb 2012175
Jan 2012176
Oct 2011173
Sept 2011167
Aug 2011160
Jul 2011154
Jun 2011142
May 2011136
Apr 2011128
Mar 2011125
Feb 2011126
Jan 2011125
Dec 2010122
Nov 2010120
Oct 2010124
Sept 2010128
Aug 2010137
Jul 2010138
Jun 2010123
May 2010132
Apr 2010132
Mar 2010134
Feb 2010132
Jan 2010129
Dec 2009126
Nov 2009121
Oct 2009148
Sept 2009163
Aug 2009167
Jul 2009163
Jun 2009159
May 2009150
Apr 2009150
Mar 2009149
Feb 2009150
Jan 2009140
Dec 2008125
Nov 2008125
Oct 2008145
Sept 2008172
Aug 2008160
Jul 2008170
Jun 2008152
May 2008133
Apr 2008122
Mar 2008115
Feb 2008112
Jan 2008108
Dec 2007109
Nov 2007109
Oct 2007114
Sept 2007112
Aug 2007110
Jul 2007100
Jun 200791
May 200790
Apr 200785.8
Mar 200785.5
Feb 200782.8
Jan 200779.8

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-904-51-retail-kg.