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Rice (imported) in Sikasso Médine

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

438–523

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

427–565

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 438 and 523 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 427 and 565 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Sikasso Médine: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 438 and 523 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 427 and 565 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 448–507 483 440–537 541 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 445–513 484 435–541 544 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 438–523 483 402–576 544 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 432–547 480 407–674 536 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 427–565 472 395–726 529 –
Price history (213 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026487
Jul 2026488
Jun 2026500
May 2026490
Apr 2026448
Mar 2026450
Feb 2026450
Jan 2026448
Dec 2025450
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025518
Jul 2025550
Jun 2025550
Apr 2025548
Mar 2025575
Feb 2025553
Jan 2025575
Dec 2024600
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024600
Aug 2024584
Jul 2024569
Jun 2024557
Apr 2024594
Mar 2024550
Jan 2024488
Nov 2023476
Oct 2023476
Sept 2023474
Aug 2023475
Jul 2023477
Jun 2023475
Apr 2023475
Mar 2023475
Dec 2022475
Nov 2022474
Oct 2022482
Sept 2022469
Aug 2022453
Jul 2022422
Jun 2022418
Apr 2022402
Mar 2022394
Feb 2022404
Jan 2022390
Dec 2021378
Nov 2021380
Oct 2021380
Sept 2021376
Aug 2021375
Jul 2021375
Jun 2021376
May 2021375
Apr 2021375
Mar 2021373
Feb 2021373
Jan 2021373
Dec 2020373
Nov 2020370
Oct 2020375
Sept 2020374
Aug 2020374
Jul 2020372
May 2020369
Apr 2020369
Mar 2020366
Feb 2020371
Jan 2020353
Dec 2019375
Nov 2019371
Oct 2019375
Sept 2019375
Aug 2019375
Jul 2019375
Jun 2019375
May 2019375
Apr 2019373
Mar 2019375
Feb 2019375
Jan 2019375
Dec 2018375
Nov 2018375
Oct 2018375
Sept 2018375
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018375
May 2018375
Apr 2018375
Mar 2018376
Feb 2018375
Jan 2018373
Dec 2017377
Nov 2017380
Oct 2017378
Sept 2017377
Aug 2017377
Jul 2017374
Jun 2017376
Apr 2017375
Mar 2017375
Feb 2017375
Jan 2017375
Dec 2016375
Nov 2016375
Oct 2016375
Sept 2016375
Aug 2016375
Jul 2016375
Apr 2016371
Mar 2016371
Feb 2016375
Jan 2016371
Dec 2015350
Nov 2015376
Oct 2015351
May 2015375
Apr 2015375
Mar 2015375
Feb 2015375
Jan 2015372
Dec 2014375
Nov 2014375
Oct 2014375
Sept 2014375
Aug 2014375
Jul 2014375
Jun 2014375
May 2014375
Apr 2014350
Mar 2014350
Feb 2014350
Jan 2014350
Dec 2013350
Nov 2013350
Oct 2013350
Sept 2013350
Aug 2013350
Jul 2013350
Jun 2013350
May 2013350
Apr 2013351
Mar 2013350
Feb 2013356
Jan 2013364
Dec 2012358
Nov 2012361
Oct 2012371
Sept 2012368
Aug 2012368
Jul 2012373
Apr 2012375
Mar 2012375
Feb 2012375
Jan 2012375
Oct 2011375
Sept 2011375
Aug 2011375
Jul 2011375
Jun 2011367
May 2011352
Apr 2011350
Mar 2011350
Feb 2011338
Jan 2011327
Dec 2010325
Nov 2010325
Oct 2010325
Sept 2010325
Aug 2010325
Jul 2010325
Jun 2010316
May 2010325
Apr 2010325
Mar 2010325
Feb 2010325
Jan 2010324
Dec 2009320
Nov 2009322
Oct 2009325
Sept 2009325
Aug 2009324
Jul 2009325
May 2009324
Apr 2009340
Mar 2009375
Feb 2009375
Jan 2009375
Dec 2008375
Nov 2008374
Oct 2008375
Sept 2008375
Aug 2008379
Jul 2008392
Jun 2008380
May 2008338
Apr 2008325
Mar 2008311
Feb 2008283
Jan 2008275
Dec 2007275
Nov 2007275
Oct 2007275
Sept 2007279
Aug 2007275
Jul 2007275
Jun 2007275
May 2007275
Apr 2007275
Mar 2007275
Feb 2007275
Jan 2007275

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-904-64-retail-kg.