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Sorghum in Sikasso Médine

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

196–278

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

180–301

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 196 and 278 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 180 and 301 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Sikasso Médine: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 196 and 278 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 180 and 301 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 220–256 229 192–280 322 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 209–268 230 180–345 319 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 196–278 228 156–345 322 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 185–290 228 145–378 303 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 180–301 226 142–374 291 –
Price history (227 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026227
Jul 2026235
Jun 2026240
May 2026245
Apr 2026245
Mar 2026250
Feb 2026250
Jan 2026242
Dec 2025250
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025273
Aug 2025272
Jul 2025281
Jun 2025285
May 2025299
Apr 2025298
Mar 2025293
Feb 2025294
Jan 2025293
Dec 2024301
Nov 2024346
Oct 2024346
Sept 2024341
Aug 2024345
Jul 2024333
Jun 2024283
May 2024268
Apr 2024262
Mar 2024255
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023260
Oct 2023262
Sept 2023278
Aug 2023288
Jul 2023299
Jun 2023299
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Mar 2023300
Dec 2022338
Nov 2022384
Oct 2022400
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022393
Jul 2022356
Jun 2022350
May 2022346
Apr 2022325
Mar 2022298
Feb 2022268
Jan 2022229
Dec 2021220
Nov 2021203
Oct 2021202
Sept 2021200
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021194
Mar 2021199
Feb 2021199
Jan 2021191
Dec 2020200
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020196
Jun 2020198
May 2020199
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020195
Feb 2020196
Jan 2020193
Dec 2019196
Nov 2019191
Oct 2019198
Sept 2019200
Aug 2019199
Jul 2019200
Jun 2019200
May 2019198
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019198
Feb 2019196
Jan 2019247
Dec 2018218
Nov 2018248
Oct 2018247
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018239
Jun 2018239
May 2018238
Apr 2018226
Mar 2018222
Feb 2018223
Jan 2018207
Dec 2017216
Nov 2017225
Oct 2017225
Sept 2017218
Aug 2017196
Jul 2017189
Jun 2017184
May 2017183
Apr 2017178
Mar 2017175
Feb 2017164
Jan 2017153
Dec 2016156
Nov 2016168
Oct 2016174
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016175
Jul 2016174
Jun 2016175
May 2016172
Apr 2016163
Mar 2016170
Feb 2016168
Jan 2016169
Dec 2015175
Nov 2015175
Oct 2015180
Aug 2015174
Jul 2015178
Jun 2015175
May 2015156
Apr 2015150
Mar 2015153
Feb 2015151
Jan 2015153
Dec 2014160
Nov 2014175
Oct 2014175
Sept 2014170
Aug 2014175
Jul 2014174
Jun 2014169
May 2014168
Apr 2014162
Mar 2014167
Feb 2014164
Jan 2014155
Dec 2013150
Nov 2013151
Oct 2013155
Sept 2013157
Aug 2013164
Jul 2013171
Jun 2013174
May 2013178
Apr 2013180
Mar 2013176
Feb 2013178
Jan 2013160
Nov 2012233
Oct 2012241
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012249
Jul 2012250
Jun 2012250
May 2012250
Apr 2012229
Mar 2012225
Feb 2012206
Jan 2012200
Oct 2011176
Sept 2011166
Aug 2011160
Jul 2011153
Jun 2011152
May 2011145
Apr 2011142
Mar 2011143
Feb 2011136
Jan 2011131
Dec 2010126
Nov 2010141
Oct 2010142
Sept 2010145
Aug 2010148
Jul 2010147
Jun 2010142
May 2010142
Apr 2010141
Mar 2010144
Feb 2010140
Jan 2010140
Dec 2009138
Nov 2009149
Oct 2009168
Sept 2009175
Aug 2009178
Jul 2009165
Jun 2009157
May 2009149
Apr 2009146
Mar 2009147
Feb 2009145
Jan 2009131
Dec 2008125
Nov 2008125
Oct 2008145
Sept 2008161
Aug 2008155
Jul 2008166
Jun 2008140
May 2008125
Apr 2008119
Mar 2008117
Feb 2008114
Jan 2008104
Dec 2007111
Nov 2007114
Oct 2007116
Sept 2007116
Aug 2007116
Jul 2007112
Jun 2007100
May 2007100
Apr 2007102
Mar 2007101
Feb 2007100
Jan 200799

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-904-65-retail-kg.