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Rice (local) in Sikasso Médine

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

426–509

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

404–545

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 426 and 509 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 404 and 545 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Sikasso Médine: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 426 and 509 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 404 and 545 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 450–511 463 436–537 561 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 444–517 465 396–558 560 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 426–509 463 370–540 535 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 417–531 464 355–602 529 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 404–545 461 326–658 525 –
Price history (222 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026462
Jul 2026470
Jun 2026475
May 2026484
Apr 2026481
Mar 2026497
Feb 2026497
Jan 2026492
Dec 2025491
Oct 2025496
Sept 2025499
Aug 2025499
Jun 2025500
May 2025500
Apr 2025508
Mar 2025528
Feb 2025517
Jan 2025528
Dec 2024530
Nov 2024534
Oct 2024598
Sept 2024591
Aug 2024576
Jul 2024528
Jun 2024506
May 2024510
Apr 2024503
Mar 2024498
Jan 2024450
Nov 2023475
Oct 2023494
Sept 2023500
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023487
Jun 2023498
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022473
Oct 2022525
Sept 2022520
Aug 2022509
Jul 2022436
Jun 2022425
May 2022425
Apr 2022425
Mar 2022414
Feb 2022408
Jan 2022405
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021418
Oct 2021423
Sept 2021423
Aug 2021401
Jul 2021400
Jun 2021399
May 2021395
Apr 2021389
Mar 2021376
Feb 2021375
Dec 2020375
Nov 2020376
Oct 2020394
Sept 2020378
Aug 2020374
Jul 2020374
Jun 2020375
May 2020374
Apr 2020353
Mar 2020350
Feb 2020352
Jan 2020353
Dec 2019360
Nov 2019370
Oct 2019371
Sept 2019375
Aug 2019375
Jul 2019375
Jun 2019373
May 2019373
Apr 2019372
Mar 2019375
Feb 2019372
Jan 2019376
Dec 2018373
Nov 2018376
Oct 2018400
Sept 2018415
Aug 2018405
Jul 2018400
Jun 2018400
May 2018401
Apr 2018391
Mar 2018375
Feb 2018375
Jan 2018375
Dec 2017375
Nov 2017375
Oct 2017394
Sept 2017397
Aug 2017375
Jul 2017375
Jun 2017375
May 2017365
Apr 2017351
Mar 2017350
Feb 2017350
Jan 2017350
Dec 2016345
Nov 2016350
Oct 2016375
Sept 2016375
Aug 2016377
Jul 2016375
Jun 2016365
May 2016373
Apr 2016343
Mar 2016338
Feb 2016336
Jan 2016350
Dec 2015349
Nov 2015370
Oct 2015390
May 2015357
Apr 2015345
Mar 2015340
Feb 2015328
Jan 2015330
Dec 2014330
Nov 2014350
Oct 2014350
Sept 2014346
Aug 2014329
Jul 2014325
Jun 2014327
May 2014325
Apr 2014325
Mar 2014327
Feb 2014325
Jan 2014325
Dec 2013325
Nov 2013331
Oct 2013341
Sept 2013343
Aug 2013343
Jul 2013343
Jun 2013350
May 2013347
Apr 2013349
Mar 2013348
Feb 2013349
Jan 2013344
Nov 2012340
Oct 2012381
Sept 2012401
Aug 2012408
Jul 2012423
Jun 2012425
May 2012425
Apr 2012422
Mar 2012391
Feb 2012376
Jan 2012375
Oct 2011393
Sept 2011388
Aug 2011377
Jul 2011374
Jun 2011366
May 2011351
Apr 2011331
Mar 2011325
Feb 2011325
Jan 2011325
Dec 2010325
Nov 2010325
Oct 2010325
Sept 2010325
Aug 2010325
Jul 2010325
Jun 2010310
May 2010325
Apr 2010325
Mar 2010325
Feb 2010325
Jan 2010324
Dec 2009315
Nov 2009319
Oct 2009349
Sept 2009375
Aug 2009375
Jul 2009374
Jun 2009370
May 2009350
Apr 2009349
Mar 2009349
Feb 2009350
Jan 2009349
Dec 2008350
Nov 2008346
Oct 2008399
Sept 2008410
Aug 2008400
Jul 2008395
Jun 2008358
May 2008337
Apr 2008321
Mar 2008297
Feb 2008277
Jan 2008275
Dec 2007275
Nov 2007276
Oct 2007282
Sept 2007287
Aug 2007282
Jul 2007281
Jun 2007278
May 2007280
Apr 2007266
Mar 2007256
Feb 2007255
Jan 2007251

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-904-71-retail-kg.