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Food basket in Sikasso Médine

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,729–4,427

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,638–4,623

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,180 XOF in July 2026. No complete basket cost has been published for this market since July 2026: November 2026 is 4 months after it, so the range is wider than usual. November 2026: most likely between 2,729 and 4,427 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,638 and 4,623 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Sikasso Médine: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,180 XOF in July 2026. No complete basket cost has been published for this market since July 2026: November 2026 is 4 months after it, so the range is wider than usual. November 2026: most likely between 2,729 and 4,427 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,638 and 4,623 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,933–3,860 3,196 2,779–4,382
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,820–4,088 3,195 2,540–4,533
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,729–4,427 3,206 2,479–5,233
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,626–4,545 3,165 2,420–5,388
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,638–4,623 3,132 2,596–5,758
Cost history (226 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Jul 20263,180
Jun 20263,120
May 20263,156
Apr 20263,288
Mar 20263,528
Feb 20263,528
Jan 20263,555
Dec 20253,540
Oct 20253,756
Sept 20253,756
Aug 20253,816
Jul 20254,035
Jun 20254,260
May 20254,236
Apr 20254,272
Mar 20254,116
Feb 20254,332
Jan 20254,116
Dec 20244,512
Nov 20245,292
Oct 20245,292
Sept 20244,848
Aug 20244,848
Jul 20244,680
Jun 20243,720
May 20243,600
Apr 20243,600
Mar 20243,588
Jan 20243,060
Nov 20233,504
Oct 20233,600
Sept 20233,600
Aug 20233,600
Jul 20233,684
Jun 20233,696
May 20233,840
Apr 20234,164
Mar 20234,200
Dec 20224,260
Nov 20225,232
Oct 20225,400
Sept 20225,436
Aug 20225,244
Jul 20224,812
Jun 20224,800
May 20224,824
Apr 20224,692
Mar 20224,008
Feb 20223,792
Jan 20223,252
Dec 20213,060
Nov 20213,072
Oct 20212,700
Sept 20212,436
Aug 20212,460
Jul 20212,400
Jun 20212,400
May 20212,400
Apr 20212,370
Mar 20212,400
Feb 20212,388
Jan 20212,412
Dec 20202,688
Nov 20202,736
Oct 20202,736
Sept 20202,832
Aug 20202,664
Jul 20202,436
Jun 20202,412
May 20202,376
Apr 20202,400
Mar 20202,388
Feb 20202,376
Jan 20202,376
Dec 20192,352
Nov 20192,385
Oct 20192,400
Sept 20192,376
Aug 20192,376
Jul 20192,376
Jun 20192,400
May 20192,400
Apr 20192,364
Mar 20192,400
Feb 20192,460
Jan 20192,892
Dec 20182,832
Nov 20182,895
Oct 20183,000
Sept 20183,012
Aug 20183,024
Jul 20183,096
Jun 20183,048
May 20183,084
Apr 20183,036
Mar 20183,000
Feb 20183,000
Jan 20182,940
Dec 20173,300
Nov 20173,456
Oct 20173,612
Sept 20173,540
Aug 20172,976
Jul 20172,784
Jun 20172,748
May 20172,676
Apr 20172,496
Mar 20172,460
Feb 20172,448
Jan 20172,412
Dec 20162,460
Nov 20162,640
Oct 20162,400
Sept 20162,400
Aug 20162,400
Jul 20162,400
Jun 20162,436
May 20162,412
Apr 20162,400
Mar 20162,400
Feb 20162,400
Jan 20162,376
Dec 20152,400
Nov 20152,400
Oct 20152,400
Aug 20152,448
Jul 20152,580
Jun 20152,412
May 20152,400
Apr 20152,400
Mar 20152,376
Feb 20152,328
Jan 20152,412
Dec 20142,484
Nov 20142,532
Oct 20142,616
Sept 20142,640
Aug 20142,664
Jul 20142,640
Jun 20142,628
May 20142,540
Apr 20142,556
Mar 20142,640
Feb 20142,652
Jan 20142,580
Dec 20132,700
Nov 20132,712
Oct 20132,676
Sept 20132,700
Aug 20132,700
Jul 20132,700
Jun 20132,700
May 20132,700
Apr 20132,700
Mar 20132,700
Feb 20132,745
Jan 20132,610
Nov 20123,756
Oct 20123,708
Sept 20123,804
Aug 20123,876
Jul 20123,660
Jun 20123,600
May 20123,600
Apr 20123,504
Mar 20123,000
Feb 20122,994
Jan 20122,880
Oct 20112,117
Sept 20112,160
Aug 20112,265
Jul 20112,148
Jun 20112,160
May 20112,146
Apr 20112,115
Mar 20112,100
Feb 20112,100
Jan 20112,100
Dec 20102,100
Nov 20102,100
Oct 20102,100
Sept 20102,184
Aug 20102,282
Jul 20102,313
Jun 20102,343
May 20102,100
Apr 20102,100
Mar 20102,100
Feb 20102,100
Jan 20102,090
Dec 20092,244
Nov 20092,546
Oct 20092,657
Sept 20092,660
Aug 20092,455
Jul 20092,199
Jun 20092,187
May 20092,064
Apr 20092,031
Mar 20091,891
Feb 20091,818
Jan 20091,800
Dec 20081,950
Nov 20082,225
Oct 20082,265
Sept 20082,232
Aug 20082,098
Jul 20082,152
Jun 20081,855
May 20081,635
Apr 20081,560
Mar 20081,502
Feb 20081,506
Jan 20081,500
Dec 20071,680
Nov 20071,620
Oct 20071,602
Sept 20071,608
Aug 20071,551
Jul 20071,550
Jun 20071,500
May 20071,485
Apr 20071,506
Mar 20071,500
Feb 20071,500
Jan 20071,500

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189