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Rice (imported) in Sirakorola

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 3% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

443–527

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

424–552

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 443 and 527 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 424 and 552 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Sirakorola: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 443 and 527 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 424 and 552 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 464–517 494 445–540 519 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 454–525 494 419–562 517 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 443–527 493 367–550 519 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 431–538 487 362–586 508 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 424–552 482 359–629 510 –
Price history (207 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026450
Mar 2026450
Feb 2026450
Jan 2026450
Dec 2025450
Oct 2025450
Sept 2025465
Aug 2025480
Jul 2025490
Jun 2025450
May 2025480
Apr 2025500
Mar 2025500
Feb 2025500
Jan 2025500
Dec 2024500
Nov 2024500
Oct 2024500
Sept 2024500
Aug 2024550
Jul 2024550
Jun 2024550
May 2024550
Apr 2024525
Mar 2024493
Jan 2024480
Nov 2023480
Oct 2023480
Sept 2023490
Aug 2023496
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022488
Aug 2022471
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022450
May 2022420
Apr 2022420
Mar 2022412
Feb 2022410
Jan 2022410
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021400
Oct 2021395
Sept 2021390
Aug 2021390
Jul 2021390
Jun 2021386
May 2021385
Apr 2021394
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021381
Jan 2021375
Dec 2020375
Nov 2020375
Oct 2020375
Sept 2020375
Aug 2020375
Jul 2020375
Jun 2020375
May 2020369
Apr 2020365
Mar 2020350
Feb 2020350
Jan 2020400
Dec 2019368
Nov 2019400
Aug 2019375
Jul 2019375
Jun 2019400
May 2019400
Mar 2019375
Feb 2019375
Jan 2019375
Nov 2018375
Oct 2018400
Sept 2018400
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018375
Jun 2018375
May 2018375
Apr 2018375
Mar 2018375
Feb 2018375
Jan 2018375
Dec 2017375
Nov 2017362
Oct 2017370
Sept 2017375
Aug 2017383
Jul 2017400
Jun 2017400
May 2017400
Apr 2017371
Mar 2017360
Feb 2017357
Jan 2017350
Dec 2016350
Nov 2016350
Oct 2016350
Sept 2016350
Aug 2016350
Jul 2016350
Jun 2016350
May 2016350
Apr 2016350
Mar 2016350
Feb 2016350
Jan 2016350
Dec 2015352
Nov 2015350
Oct 2015350
May 2015375
Apr 2015375
Mar 2015375
Feb 2015350
Jan 2015361
Dec 2014350
Nov 2014371
Oct 2014375
Sept 2014375
Aug 2014356
Jul 2014357
Jun 2014350
May 2014350
Apr 2014350
Mar 2014350
Feb 2014350
Jan 2014350
Dec 2013375
Nov 2013375
Oct 2013375
Sept 2013375
Aug 2013370
Jul 2013375
Sept 2012350
Aug 2012346
Jul 2012348
Jun 2012369
Oct 2011375
Sept 2011375
Aug 2011375
Jul 2011375
Jun 2011375
May 2011375
Apr 2011375
Mar 2011355
Feb 2011350
Jan 2011342
Dec 2010325
Nov 2010325
Oct 2010325
Sept 2010324
Aug 2010324
Jul 2010325
Jun 2010325
May 2010325
Apr 2010325
Mar 2010325
Feb 2010325
Jan 2010325
Dec 2009320
Nov 2009325
Oct 2009338
Sept 2009325
Aug 2009312
Jul 2009350
Jun 2009350
May 2009350
Apr 2009350
Mar 2009375
Feb 2009381
Jan 2009395
Dec 2008375
Nov 2008375
Oct 2008398
Sept 2008394
Aug 2008388
Jul 2008400
Jun 2008400
May 2008355
Apr 2008350
Mar 2008348
Feb 2008329
Jan 2008313
Dec 2007275
Nov 2007284
Oct 2007287
Sept 2007282
Aug 2007275
Jul 2007276
Jun 2007275
May 2007275
Apr 2007275
Mar 2007275
Feb 2007275
Jan 2007275

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-905-64-retail-kg.