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Food basket in Sirakorola

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,764–4,073

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,688–4,444

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,300 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,764 and 4,073 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,688 and 4,444 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Sirakorola: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,300 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,764 and 4,073 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,688 and 4,444 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 9,645); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,477–3,759 3,134 2,361–3,955
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,308–3,959 3,069 2,136–5,293
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,764–4,073 2,372 1,690–6,386
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,516–4,536 2,186 1,076–9,645
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,688–4,444 2,228 1,260–6,848
Cost history (211 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,300
Jul 20262,652
Jun 20262,364
May 20262,160
Apr 20262,400
Mar 20262,265
Feb 20262,265
Jan 20262,292
Dec 20252,175
Oct 20252,280
Sept 20252,256
Aug 20252,508
Jul 20252,700
Jun 20252,700
May 20252,880
Apr 20253,000
Mar 20252,640
Feb 20252,856
Jan 20252,640
Dec 20242,352
Nov 20242,772
Oct 20243,840
Sept 20243,756
Aug 20243,852
Jul 20243,792
Jun 20243,300
May 20242,820
Apr 20242,700
Mar 20242,700
Jan 20242,592
Nov 20232,496
Oct 20233,000
Sept 20233,072
Aug 20233,228
Jul 20233,060
Jun 20232,712
May 20232,700
Apr 20232,688
Mar 20233,000
Dec 20222,280
Nov 20222,496
Oct 20223,696
Sept 20224,488
Aug 20224,476
Jul 20224,476
Jun 20224,260
May 20223,900
Apr 20223,960
Mar 20223,192
Feb 20222,820
Jan 20222,496
Dec 20212,412
Nov 20212,328
Oct 20212,376
Sept 20212,112
Aug 20212,100
Jul 20212,100
Jun 20212,100
May 20211,887
Apr 20211,824
Mar 20211,896
Feb 20211,800
Jan 20211,812
Dec 20201,572
Nov 20202,148
Oct 20202,244
Sept 20202,256
Aug 20202,076
Jul 20201,920
Jun 20201,716
May 20201,764
Apr 20201,680
Mar 20201,644
Feb 20201,620
Jan 20201,380
Dec 20191,332
Nov 20191,440
Sept 20191,560
Aug 20191,800
Jul 20192,700
Jun 20191,680
May 20191,800
Mar 20191,800
Feb 20191,500
Jan 20191,800
Nov 20181,800
Oct 20182,160
Sept 20182,400
Aug 20182,580
Jul 20182,556
Jun 20182,496
May 20182,316
Apr 20182,172
Mar 20182,172
Feb 20182,076
Jan 20181,908
Dec 20171,716
Nov 20171,800
Oct 20172,460
Sept 20172,616
Aug 20172,304
Jul 20172,070
Jun 20172,016
May 20171,836
Apr 20171,692
Mar 20171,632
Feb 20171,608
Jan 20171,500
Dec 20161,440
Nov 20161,620
Oct 20161,824
Sept 20161,788
Aug 20161,884
Jul 20161,872
Jun 20161,728
May 20161,656
Apr 20161,620
Mar 20161,620
Feb 20161,596
Jan 20161,500
Dec 20151,440
Nov 20151,536
Oct 20152,088
Aug 20152,160
Jul 20152,136
Jun 20151,992
May 20151,740
Apr 20151,680
Mar 20151,656
Feb 20151,800
Jan 20151,692
Dec 20141,560
Nov 20141,596
Oct 20141,944
Sept 20142,016
Aug 20142,100
Jul 20142,100
Jun 20141,980
May 20141,860
Apr 20141,800
Mar 20141,800
Feb 20141,812
Jan 20141,800
Dec 20131,560
Nov 20131,824
Oct 20132,136
Sept 20132,160
Aug 20132,196
Jul 20132,190
Sept 20123,120
Aug 20123,132
Jul 20123,120
Jun 20123,036
Oct 20111,500
Sept 20111,380
Aug 20111,530
Jul 20111,680
Jun 20111,476
May 20111,440
Apr 20111,380
Mar 20111,416
Feb 20111,500
Jan 20111,360
Dec 20101,200
Nov 20101,200
Oct 20101,740
Sept 20101,845
Aug 20102,010
Jul 20102,076
Jun 20101,812
May 20101,744
Apr 20101,740
Mar 20101,760
Feb 20101,800
Jan 20101,608
Dec 20091,356
Nov 20091,400
Oct 20092,016
Sept 20092,360
Aug 20092,175
Jul 20092,112
Jun 20091,740
May 20091,590
Apr 20091,502
Mar 20091,530
Feb 20091,590
Jan 20091,260
Dec 20081,041
Nov 20081,032
Oct 20081,476
Sept 20081,950
Aug 20081,671
Jul 20081,805
Jun 20081,641
May 20081,272
Apr 20081,200
Mar 20081,305
Feb 20081,365
Jan 20081,236
Dec 20071,020
Nov 20071,032
Oct 20071,560
Sept 20071,545
Aug 20071,512
Jul 20071,557
Jun 20071,284
May 20071,106
Apr 20071,080
Mar 20071,080
Feb 20071,200
Jan 20071,065

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189