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Millet in Sogoniko

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal July 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

261–420

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

239–436

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In July 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 261 and 420 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 239 and 436 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Sogoniko: XOF per KGIn July 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 261 and 420 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 239 and 436 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 277–368 311 275–402 398 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 271–395 310 267–438 409 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 261–420 312 233–431 419 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 245–430 302 222–547 366 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 239–436 296 205–562 347 –
Price history (212 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Jul 2026312
Jun 2026325
May 2026325
Apr 2026338
Mar 2026300
Feb 2026300
Jan 2026300
Dec 2025300
Oct 2025350
Sept 2025320
Aug 2025350
Jul 2025350
Jun 2025350
May 2025350
Apr 2025350
Mar 2025344
Feb 2025350
Jan 2025344
Dec 2024400
Nov 2024450
Oct 2024430
Sept 2024400
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024370
Jun 2024300
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Jan 2024300
Nov 2023350
Oct 2023350
Sept 2023350
Aug 2023350
Jul 2023350
Jun 2023350
May 2023350
Apr 2023350
Mar 2023350
Dec 2022388
Nov 2022415
Oct 2022444
Sept 2022434
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022400
May 2022400
Apr 2022375
Mar 2022320
Feb 2022300
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021294
Nov 2021240
Oct 2021225
Sept 2021225
Aug 2021220
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021206
Mar 2021210
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020200
Nov 2020250
Oct 2020244
Sept 2020225
Aug 2020206
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020181
Dec 2019175
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018255
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017250
Nov 2017268
Oct 2017290
Sept 2017300
Aug 2017260
Jul 2017250
Jun 2017225
May 2017225
Apr 2017225
Mar 2017225
Feb 2017206
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016215
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016225
Jun 2016225
May 2016210
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015200
Nov 2015200
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015225
Jul 2015225
Jun 2015225
May 2015225
Apr 2015200
Mar 2015208
Feb 2015206
Jan 2015217
Dec 2014219
Nov 2014225
Oct 2014225
Sept 2014225
Aug 2014225
Jul 2014225
Jun 2014225
May 2014225
Apr 2014225
Mar 2014217
Feb 2014225
Jan 2014225
Dec 2013225
Nov 2013225
Oct 2013230
Sept 2013250
Aug 2013250
Jul 2013250
Jun 2013250
May 2013250
Apr 2013250
Mar 2013250
Feb 2013250
Jan 2013245
Nov 2012300
Oct 2012320
Sept 2012325
Aug 2012325
Jul 2012305
Jun 2012300
May 2012300
Apr 2012294
Mar 2012256
Feb 2012262
Jan 2012250
Nov 2011200
Oct 2011200
Sept 2011181
Aug 2011185
Jul 2011181
Jun 2011175
May 2011175
Apr 2011175
Mar 2011175
Feb 2011175
Jan 2011150
Dec 2010169
Nov 2010170
Oct 2010181
Sept 2010181
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010195
May 2010181
Apr 2010188
Mar 2010195
Feb 2010185
Jan 2010194
Dec 2009190
Nov 2009206
Oct 2009205
Sept 2009225
Aug 2009206
Jul 2009200
Jun 2009193
May 2009175
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009175
Jan 2009175
Dec 2008175
Nov 2008175
Oct 2008198
Sept 2008200
Aug 2008198
Jul 2008193
Jun 2008175
May 2008150
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007150
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007150
Jul 2007150
Jun 2007138
May 2007150
Apr 2007150
Mar 2007150
Feb 2007150
Jan 2007150

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: July 2026. Series id: mali-906-73-retail-kg.