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Food basket in Sogoniko

Bamako, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,131–5,040

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,862–5,237

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,750 XOF in July 2026. No complete basket cost has been published for this market since July 2026: November 2026 is 4 months after it, so the range is wider than usual. November 2026: most likely between 3,131 and 5,040 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,862 and 5,237 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Sogoniko: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,750 XOF in July 2026. No complete basket cost has been published for this market since July 2026: November 2026 is 4 months after it, so the range is wider than usual. November 2026: most likely between 3,131 and 5,040 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,862 and 5,237 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,329–4,412 3,734 3,304–4,829
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,255–4,743 3,724 3,198–5,260
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,131–5,040 3,743 2,791–5,169
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,940–5,157 3,628 2,665–6,565
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,862–5,237 3,555 2,459–6,743
Cost history (212 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Jul 20263,750
Jun 20263,900
May 20263,900
Apr 20264,056
Mar 20263,600
Feb 20263,600
Jan 20263,600
Dec 20253,600
Oct 20254,200
Sept 20253,840
Aug 20254,200
Jul 20254,200
Jun 20254,200
May 20254,200
Apr 20254,200
Mar 20254,128
Feb 20254,200
Jan 20254,128
Dec 20244,800
Nov 20245,400
Oct 20245,160
Sept 20244,800
Aug 20244,800
Jul 20244,440
Jun 20243,600
May 20243,600
Apr 20243,600
Mar 20243,600
Jan 20243,600
Nov 20234,200
Oct 20234,200
Sept 20234,200
Aug 20234,200
Jul 20234,200
Jun 20234,200
May 20234,200
Apr 20234,200
Mar 20234,200
Dec 20224,656
Nov 20224,980
Oct 20225,328
Sept 20225,208
Aug 20224,800
Jul 20224,800
Jun 20224,800
May 20224,800
Apr 20224,500
Mar 20223,840
Feb 20223,600
Jan 20223,600
Dec 20213,528
Nov 20212,880
Oct 20212,700
Sept 20212,700
Aug 20212,640
Jul 20212,400
Jun 20212,400
May 20212,400
Apr 20212,475
Mar 20212,520
Feb 20212,400
Jan 20212,400
Dec 20202,400
Nov 20203,000
Oct 20202,928
Sept 20202,700
Aug 20202,472
Jul 20202,400
Jun 20202,400
May 20202,400
Apr 20202,400
Mar 20202,400
Feb 20202,400
Jan 20202,172
Dec 20192,100
Aug 20183,000
Jul 20183,000
Jun 20183,000
May 20183,060
Apr 20183,000
Mar 20183,000
Feb 20183,000
Jan 20183,000
Dec 20173,000
Nov 20173,216
Oct 20173,480
Sept 20173,600
Aug 20173,120
Jul 20173,000
Jun 20172,700
May 20172,700
Apr 20172,700
Mar 20172,700
Feb 20172,472
Jan 20172,400
Dec 20162,400
Nov 20162,580
Oct 20162,400
Sept 20162,400
Aug 20162,400
Jul 20162,700
Jun 20162,700
May 20162,520
Apr 20162,400
Mar 20162,400
Feb 20162,400
Jan 20162,400
Dec 20152,400
Nov 20152,400
Oct 20152,400
Aug 20152,700
Jul 20152,700
Jun 20152,700
May 20152,700
Apr 20152,400
Mar 20152,496
Feb 20152,472
Jan 20152,604
Dec 20142,628
Nov 20142,700
Oct 20142,700
Sept 20142,700
Aug 20142,700
Jul 20142,700
Jun 20142,700
May 20142,700
Apr 20142,700
Mar 20142,604
Feb 20142,700
Jan 20142,700
Dec 20132,700
Nov 20132,700
Oct 20132,760
Sept 20133,000
Aug 20133,000
Jul 20133,000
Jun 20133,000
May 20133,000
Apr 20133,000
Mar 20133,000
Feb 20133,000
Jan 20132,940
Nov 20123,600
Oct 20123,840
Sept 20123,900
Aug 20123,900
Jul 20123,660
Jun 20123,600
May 20123,600
Apr 20123,525
Mar 20123,075
Feb 20123,150
Jan 20123,000
Nov 20112,400
Oct 20112,400
Sept 20112,175
Aug 20112,220
Jul 20112,175
Jun 20112,100
May 20112,100
Apr 20112,100
Mar 20112,100
Feb 20112,100
Jan 20111,800
Dec 20102,025
Nov 20102,040
Oct 20102,175
Sept 20102,175
Aug 20102,400
Jul 20102,400
Jun 20102,340
May 20102,175
Apr 20102,250
Mar 20102,340
Feb 20102,220
Jan 20102,325
Dec 20092,280
Nov 20092,475
Oct 20092,460
Sept 20092,700
Aug 20092,475
Jul 20092,400
Jun 20092,316
May 20092,100
Apr 20092,100
Mar 20092,100
Feb 20092,100
Jan 20092,100
Dec 20082,100
Nov 20082,100
Oct 20082,370
Sept 20082,400
Aug 20082,370
Jul 20082,316
Jun 20082,100
May 20081,800
Apr 20081,800
Mar 20081,800
Feb 20081,800
Jan 20081,800
Dec 20071,800
Nov 20071,800
Oct 20071,800
Sept 20071,800
Aug 20071,800
Jul 20071,800
Jun 20071,650
May 20071,800
Apr 20071,800
Mar 20071,800
Feb 20071,800
Jan 20071,800

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189