Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Sorghum in Sokolo

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 31% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

170–289

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

155–314

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 31% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 170 and 289 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 155 and 314 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Sokolo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 31% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 170 and 289 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 155 and 314 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 215–255 227 195–314 332 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 195–273 225 174–382 322 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 170–289 214 123–449 283 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 159–303 206 117–486 269 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 155–314 202 104–465 261 –
Price history (210 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026225
Jul 2026225
Jun 2026225
May 2026225
Apr 2026225
Mar 2026225
Feb 2026225
Jan 2026225
Dec 2025225
Oct 2025225
Sept 2025225
Aug 2025244
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025250
May 2025250
Apr 2025250
Mar 2025250
Feb 2025263
Jan 2025250
Dec 2024300
Nov 2024325
Oct 2024394
Sept 2024385
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024375
Jun 2024325
May 2024300
Apr 2024275
Mar 2024269
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023263
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023275
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Mar 2023300
Dec 2022325
Nov 2022331
Oct 2022410
Sept 2022444
Aug 2022425
Jul 2022425
Jun 2022425
May 2022425
Apr 2022394
Mar 2022338
Feb 2022325
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021300
Nov 2021260
Oct 2021225
Sept 2021225
Aug 2021225
Jul 2021219
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021194
Feb 2021163
Jan 2021150
Dec 2020150
Nov 2020170
Oct 2020219
Sept 2020250
Aug 2020230
Jul 2020175
Jun 2020175
May 2020175
Apr 2020175
Mar 2020165
Feb 2020150
Jan 2020150
Dec 2019150
Nov 2019150
Sept 2019175
Aug 2019175
Jul 2019175
Jun 2019175
May 2019175
Mar 2019125
Feb 2019125
Jan 2019150
Dec 2018140
Nov 2018150
Oct 2018200
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018210
Dec 2017181
Nov 2017193
Oct 2017210
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017250
Jul 2017230
Jun 2017225
May 2017219
Mar 2017181
Feb 2017188
Jan 2017175
Dec 2016175
Nov 2016175
Oct 2016175
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016175
Jul 2016175
Jun 2016175
May 2016169
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016150
Feb 2016150
Jan 2016150
Dec 2015150
Nov 2015176
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015194
Apr 2015175
Mar 2015175
Feb 2015175
Jan 2015150
Dec 2014150
Nov 2014163
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014200
Aug 2014200
Jul 2014200
Jun 2014200
May 2014184
Apr 2014175
Mar 2014173
Feb 2014159
Jan 2014150
Dec 2013150
Nov 2013171
Oct 2013173
Sept 2013182
Aug 2013164
Jul 2013159
Sept 2012300
Aug 2012298
Jul 2012294
Jun 2012299
Oct 2011165
Sept 2011125
Aug 2011125
Jul 2011125
Jun 2011126
May 2011125
Apr 2011125
Mar 2011100
Feb 2011100
Jan 201190
Dec 2010100
Nov 201085
Oct 2010129
Sept 2010146
Aug 2010150
Jul 2010150
Jun 2010125
May 2010125
Apr 2010119
Mar 2010120
Feb 2010152
Jan 2010131
Dec 2009150
Nov 2009131
Oct 2009181
Sept 2009198
Aug 2009194
Jul 2009180
Jun 2009177
May 2009159
Apr 2009156
Mar 2009152
Feb 2009151
Jan 2009148
Dec 2008119
Nov 2008138
Oct 2008161
Sept 2008185
Aug 2008178
Jul 2008175
Jun 2008160
May 2008147
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008125
Feb 2008125
Jan 2008122
Dec 2007116
Nov 2007106
Oct 2007100
Sept 2007111
Aug 2007121
Jul 2007114
Jun 2007100
May 2007100
Apr 200787.5
Mar 200787.5
Feb 200784.4
Jan 200797.5

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-907-65-retail-kg.