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Millet in Sokolo

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

174–344

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

165–348

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 22% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 174 and 344 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 165 and 348 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Sokolo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 22% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 174 and 344 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 165 and 348 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 533); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 223–317 264 217–370 325 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 206–336 256 203–476 317 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 174–344 226 123–469 281 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 167–363 221 123–533 266 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 165–348 209 118–417 256 –
Price history (212 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026275
Jul 2026225
Jun 2026225
May 2026225
Apr 2026225
Mar 2026225
Feb 2026225
Jan 2026225
Dec 2025225
Oct 2025225
Sept 2025225
Aug 2025244
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025250
May 2025250
Apr 2025250
Mar 2025250
Feb 2025263
Jan 2025250
Dec 2024300
Nov 2024325
Oct 2024394
Sept 2024385
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024375
Jun 2024325
May 2024300
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023250
Oct 2023265
Sept 2023275
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023275
May 2023295
Apr 2023275
Mar 2023250
Dec 2022300
Nov 2022331
Oct 2022410
Sept 2022444
Aug 2022420
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022400
May 2022400
Apr 2022388
Mar 2022331
Feb 2022300
Jan 2022270
Dec 2021300
Nov 2021260
Oct 2021225
Sept 2021225
Aug 2021215
Jul 2021194
Jun 2021175
May 2021195
Apr 2021194
Mar 2021175
Feb 2021163
Jan 2021150
Dec 2020150
Nov 2020165
Oct 2020219
Sept 2020250
Aug 2020230
Jul 2020175
Jun 2020175
May 2020175
Apr 2020175
Mar 2020165
Feb 2020150
Jan 2020150
Dec 2019150
Nov 2019150
Sept 2019175
Aug 2019175
Jul 2019175
Jun 2019175
May 2019175
Mar 2019150
Feb 2019150
Jan 2019150
Dec 2018140
Nov 2018150
Oct 2018200
Sept 2018225
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018233
Feb 2018212
Jan 2018198
Dec 2017175
Nov 2017193
Oct 2017210
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017250
Jul 2017230
Jun 2017225
May 2017219
Apr 2017194
Mar 2017181
Feb 2017188
Jan 2017175
Dec 2016175
Nov 2016175
Oct 2016175
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016175
Jul 2016175
Jun 2016175
May 2016169
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016150
Feb 2016150
Jan 2016150
Dec 2015150
Nov 2015154
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015194
Apr 2015163
Mar 2015159
Feb 2015150
Jan 2015150
Dec 2014175
Nov 2014175
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014200
Aug 2014200
Jul 2014203
Jun 2014198
May 2014190
Apr 2014175
Mar 2014180
Feb 2014180
Jan 2014180
Dec 2013185
Nov 2013185
Oct 2013183
Sept 2013198
Aug 2013185
Jul 2013177
Sept 2012290
Aug 2012298
Jul 2012294
Jun 2012299
Oct 2011183
Sept 2011150
Aug 2011152
Jul 2011145
Jun 2011137
May 2011132
Apr 2011132
Mar 2011125
Feb 2011119
Jan 2011125
Dec 2010124
Nov 2010114
Oct 2010130
Sept 2010138
Aug 2010163
Jul 2010154
Jun 2010146
May 2010138
Apr 2010137
Mar 2010142
Feb 2010142
Jan 2010146
Dec 2009159
Nov 2009130
Oct 2009186
Sept 2009196
Aug 2009192
Jul 2009182
Jun 2009179
May 2009162
Apr 2009161
Mar 2009155
Feb 2009154
Jan 2009150
Dec 2008153
Nov 2008148
Oct 2008154
Sept 2008188
Aug 2008177
Jul 2008178
Jun 2008163
May 2008148
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008126
Feb 2008125
Jan 2008126
Dec 2007114
Nov 2007112
Oct 2007108
Sept 2007110
Aug 2007121
Jul 2007121
Jun 2007108
May 2007105
Apr 2007104
Mar 2007100
Feb 2007106
Jan 2007114

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-907-73-retail-kg.