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Food basket in Sokolo

Segou, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,093–4,128

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,980–4,175

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,300 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,093 and 4,128 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,980 and 4,175 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Sokolo: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,300 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,093 and 4,128 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,980 and 4,175 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 6,398); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,676–3,803 3,171 2,602–4,441
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,472–4,028 3,072 2,441–5,708
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,093–4,128 2,718 1,479–5,628
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,002–4,357 2,655 1,479–6,398
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,980–4,175 2,510 1,415–5,007
Cost history (212 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,300
Jul 20262,700
Jun 20262,700
May 20262,700
Apr 20262,700
Mar 20262,700
Feb 20262,700
Jan 20262,700
Dec 20252,700
Oct 20252,700
Sept 20252,700
Aug 20252,928
Jul 20253,000
Jun 20253,000
May 20253,000
Apr 20253,000
Mar 20253,000
Feb 20253,156
Jan 20253,000
Dec 20243,600
Nov 20243,900
Oct 20244,728
Sept 20244,620
Aug 20244,800
Jul 20244,500
Jun 20243,900
May 20243,600
Apr 20243,000
Mar 20243,000
Jan 20243,000
Nov 20233,000
Oct 20233,180
Sept 20233,300
Aug 20233,600
Jul 20233,600
Jun 20233,300
May 20233,540
Apr 20233,300
Mar 20233,000
Dec 20223,600
Nov 20223,972
Oct 20224,920
Sept 20225,328
Aug 20225,040
Jul 20224,800
Jun 20224,800
May 20224,800
Apr 20224,656
Mar 20223,972
Feb 20223,600
Jan 20223,240
Dec 20213,600
Nov 20213,120
Oct 20212,700
Sept 20212,700
Aug 20212,580
Jul 20212,328
Jun 20212,100
May 20212,340
Apr 20212,325
Mar 20212,100
Feb 20211,956
Jan 20211,800
Dec 20201,800
Nov 20201,980
Oct 20202,628
Sept 20203,000
Aug 20202,760
Jul 20202,100
Jun 20202,100
May 20202,100
Apr 20202,100
Mar 20201,980
Feb 20201,800
Jan 20201,800
Dec 20191,800
Nov 20191,800
Sept 20192,100
Aug 20192,100
Jul 20192,100
Jun 20192,100
May 20192,100
Mar 20191,800
Feb 20191,800
Jan 20191,800
Dec 20181,680
Nov 20181,800
Oct 20182,400
Sept 20182,700
Aug 20183,000
Jul 20183,000
Jun 20183,000
May 20183,000
Apr 20183,000
Mar 20182,796
Feb 20182,544
Jan 20182,376
Dec 20172,100
Nov 20172,316
Oct 20172,520
Sept 20173,000
Aug 20173,000
Jul 20172,760
Jun 20172,700
May 20172,628
Apr 20172,328
Mar 20172,172
Feb 20172,256
Jan 20172,100
Dec 20162,100
Nov 20162,100
Oct 20162,100
Sept 20162,100
Aug 20162,100
Jul 20162,100
Jun 20162,100
May 20162,028
Apr 20161,800
Mar 20161,800
Feb 20161,800
Jan 20161,800
Dec 20151,800
Nov 20151,848
Oct 20152,400
Aug 20152,400
Jul 20152,400
Jun 20152,400
May 20152,328
Apr 20151,956
Mar 20151,908
Feb 20151,800
Jan 20151,800
Dec 20142,100
Nov 20142,100
Oct 20142,400
Sept 20142,400
Aug 20142,400
Jul 20142,436
Jun 20142,376
May 20142,280
Apr 20142,100
Mar 20142,160
Feb 20142,160
Jan 20142,160
Dec 20132,220
Nov 20132,220
Oct 20132,196
Sept 20132,370
Aug 20132,220
Jul 20132,124
Sept 20123,480
Aug 20123,576
Jul 20123,528
Jun 20123,588
Oct 20112,196
Sept 20111,800
Aug 20111,830
Jul 20111,740
Jun 20111,642
May 20111,584
Apr 20111,590
Mar 20111,500
Feb 20111,425
Jan 20111,500
Dec 20101,493
Nov 20101,368
Oct 20101,554
Sept 20101,659
Aug 20101,958
Jul 20101,847
Jun 20101,750
May 20101,650
Apr 20101,643
Mar 20101,704
Feb 20101,698
Jan 20101,755
Dec 20091,913
Nov 20091,560
Oct 20092,237
Sept 20092,348
Aug 20092,308
Jul 20092,183
Jun 20092,146
May 20091,950
Apr 20091,935
Mar 20091,860
Feb 20091,848
Jan 20091,804
Dec 20081,838
Nov 20081,770
Oct 20081,845
Sept 20082,258
Aug 20082,126
Jul 20082,130
Jun 20081,952
May 20081,782
Apr 20081,800
Mar 20081,506
Feb 20081,500
Jan 20081,509
Dec 20071,374
Nov 20071,350
Oct 20071,302
Sept 20071,323
Aug 20071,450
Jul 20071,456
Jun 20071,293
May 20071,259
Apr 20071,252
Mar 20071,200
Feb 20071,277
Jan 20071,364

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189