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Maize in Tonka

Tombouctou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 21% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

177–323

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

160–343

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 177 and 323 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 160 and 343 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Tonka: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 177 and 323 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 160 and 343 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 543); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 200–286 245 190–335 300 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 186–301 236 154–439 293 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 177–323 229 133–473 289 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 163–330 218 118–543 268 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 160–343 227 103–460 288 –
Price history (180 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026255
Jul 2026268
Jun 2026250
May 2026250
Apr 2026225
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026200
Dec 2025252
Oct 2025200
Sept 2025200
Aug 2025300
Jun 2025325
May 2025338
Apr 2025350
Mar 2025263
Feb 2025250
Jan 2025263
Dec 2024300
Oct 2024300
Sept 2024350
Aug 2024350
Jul 2024375
Jun 2024315
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Feb 2024275
Jan 2024300
Dec 2023200
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023200
Jun 2023300
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Nov 2022300
Oct 2022372
Sept 2022420
Aug 2022350
Jul 2022362
Jun 2022320
May 2022350
Apr 2022320
Mar 2022300
Feb 2022280
Jan 2022268
Dec 2021243
Nov 2021220
Oct 2021200
Sept 2021200
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021250
Jun 2021250
May 2021250
Apr 2021225
Mar 2021213
Feb 2021217
Jan 2021222
Dec 2020180
Nov 2020180
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020186
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020194
Feb 2020187
Jan 2020200
Dec 2019180
Nov 2019250
Oct 2019250
Sept 2019250
Aug 2019250
Jul 2019250
Jun 2019250
May 2019250
Apr 2019225
Feb 2019187
Jan 2019225
Dec 2018216
Nov 2018225
Oct 2018220
Sept 2018229
Aug 2018246
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018200
May 2018212
Apr 2018232
Mar 2018225
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018200
Dec 2017200
Nov 2017187
Oct 2017225
Sept 2017200
Aug 2017300
Jul 2017180
Jun 2017150
May 2017210
Apr 2017208
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016169
Nov 2016156
Oct 2016150
Sept 2016156
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016213
Feb 2016195
Jan 2016193
Dec 2015195
Nov 2015223
Oct 2015195
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015210
Mar 2015270
Feb 2015218
Jan 2015217
Dec 2014210
Nov 2014157
Oct 2014160
Sept 2014160
Aug 2014156
Jul 2014153
Jun 2014147
May 2014175
Apr 2014152
Mar 2014155
Oct 2011120
Sept 2011148
Aug 2011150
Oct 2010135
Sept 2010135
Aug 2010119
Jul 2010120
Jun 2010125
May 2010130
Apr 2010133
Mar 2010133
Feb 2010133
Jan 2010133
Dec 2009133
Nov 2009133
Oct 2009138
Sept 2009138
Aug 2009125
Jul 2009125
Jun 2009125
Oct 2008150
Sept 2008153
Aug 2008156
Jul 2008150
Jun 2008154
May 2008155
Apr 2008138
Mar 2008133
Feb 2008125
Nov 2007124
Oct 200797.7
Sept 2007125
Aug 2007145
Jul 2007145
Jun 2007159
May 2007166
Apr 2007156
Mar 2007150
Feb 2007135
Jan 2007120

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-908-51-retail-kg.