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Sorghum in Tonka

Tombouctou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 21% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

189–335

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

168–370

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 189 and 335 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 168 and 370 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Tonka: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 189 and 335 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 168 and 370 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 676); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 210–311 259 190–374 320 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 195–321 251 166–423 306 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 189–335 246 156–445 307 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 173–374 229 142–676 279 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 168–370 231 124–488 276 –
Price history (203 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026267
Jul 2026266
Jun 2026300
May 2026258
Apr 2026225
Mar 2026218
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026200
Dec 2025259
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025250
Aug 2025300
Jun 2025300
May 2025300
Apr 2025300
Mar 2025300
Feb 2025210
Jan 2025300
Dec 2024300
Oct 2024300
Sept 2024450
Aug 2024450
Jul 2024375
Jun 2024315
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Feb 2024275
Jan 2024300
Dec 2023250
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023271
Jun 2023300
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Feb 2023225
Jan 2023163
Dec 2022250
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022410
Sept 2022350
Aug 2022445
Jul 2022486
Jun 2022350
May 2022400
Apr 2022340
Mar 2022339
Feb 2022315
Jan 2022288
Dec 2021268
Nov 2021260
Oct 2021220
Sept 2021220
Aug 2021260
Jul 2021313
Jun 2021328
May 2021320
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021239
Jan 2021266
Dec 2020200
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020255
Sept 2020260
Aug 2020240
Jul 2020255
Jun 2020260
May 2020225
Apr 2020250
Mar 2020204
Feb 2020225
Jan 2020225
Dec 2019220
Nov 2019242
Oct 2019275
Sept 2019250
Aug 2019300
Jul 2019300
Jun 2019300
May 2019300
Apr 2019300
Mar 2019250
Feb 2019187
Jan 2019220
Dec 2018225
Nov 2018220
Oct 2018217
Sept 2018300
Aug 2018263
Jul 2018262
Jun 2018243
May 2018225
Apr 2018225
Mar 2018225
Feb 2018220
Jan 2018212
Dec 2017225
Nov 2017205
Oct 2017226
Sept 2017245
Aug 2017230
Jul 2017226
Jun 2017238
May 2017245
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017247
Feb 2017239
Jan 2017223
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016210
Oct 2016213
Sept 2016186
Aug 2016207
Jul 2016205
Jun 2016208
May 2016200
Apr 2016235
Mar 2016243
Feb 2016205
Jan 2016213
Dec 2015181
Nov 2015213
Oct 2015238
Aug 2015250
Jul 2015244
Jun 2015225
May 2015238
Apr 2015240
Mar 2015267
Feb 2015260
Jan 2015267
Dec 2014200
Nov 2014200
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014160
Aug 2014230
Jul 2014200
Jun 2014180
May 2014200
Apr 2014200
Mar 2014213
Feb 2014200
Oct 2011190
Sept 2011192
Aug 2011200
Jul 2011200
Jun 2011200
May 2011200
Apr 2011200
Mar 2011200
Feb 2011200
Jan 2011190
Dec 2010150
Oct 2010150
Sept 2010150
Aug 2010224
Jul 2010186
Jun 2010158
May 2010177
Apr 2010203
Mar 2010163
Feb 2010156
Jan 2010173
Dec 2009166
Nov 2009174
Oct 2009177
Sept 2009185
Aug 2009283
Jul 2009288
Jun 2009188
May 2009188
Apr 2009188
Mar 2009188
Feb 2009185
Jan 2009177
Dec 2008177
Nov 2008166
Oct 2008167
Sept 2008170
Aug 2008171
Jul 2008171
Jun 2008172
May 2008171
Apr 2008151
Mar 2008153
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008144
Dec 2007144
Nov 2007138
Oct 2007137
Sept 2007177
Aug 2007177
Jul 2007175
Jun 2007184
May 2007188
Apr 2007177
Mar 2007172
Feb 2007142
Jan 2007137

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-908-65-retail-kg.