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Rice (local) in Tonka

Tombouctou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

297–419

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

287–482

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 297 and 419 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 287 and 482 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Tonka: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 297 and 419 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 287 and 482 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 683); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 320–405 356 316–482 458 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 309–426 357 299–449 449 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 297–419 348 274–434 422 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 284–441 328 269–520 389 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 287–482 329 276–683 399 –
Price history (201 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026360
Jul 2026358
Jun 2026350
May 2026320
Apr 2026300
Mar 2026308
Feb 2026300
Jan 2026350
Dec 2025395
Oct 2025363
Sept 2025400
Aug 2025400
Jun 2025400
May 2025400
Apr 2025400
Mar 2025406
Feb 2025390
Jan 2025406
Dec 2024420
Oct 2024500
Sept 2024450
Aug 2024450
Jul 2024400
Jun 2024360
May 2024350
Apr 2024350
Mar 2024406
Feb 2024350
Jan 2024425
Dec 2023375
Nov 2023425
Oct 2023485
Sept 2023500
Aug 2023431
Jul 2023428
Jun 2023425
May 2023425
Apr 2023425
Feb 2023412
Jan 2023375
Dec 2022350
Nov 2022450
Oct 2022415
Sept 2022419
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022425
Jun 2022375
May 2022375
Apr 2022375
Mar 2022363
Feb 2022319
Jan 2022310
Dec 2021325
Nov 2021344
Oct 2021375
Sept 2021375
Aug 2021347
Jul 2021338
Jun 2021310
May 2021330
Apr 2021313
Mar 2021295
Feb 2021281
Jan 2021275
Dec 2020263
Nov 2020263
Oct 2020300
Sept 2020300
Aug 2020260
Jul 2020250
Jun 2020250
May 2020250
Apr 2020250
Mar 2020245
Feb 2020225
Jan 2020231
Dec 2019240
Nov 2019300
Oct 2019310
Sept 2019300
Aug 2019350
Jul 2019350
Jun 2019350
May 2019355
Apr 2019140Data error
Mar 2019300
Feb 2019300
Jan 2019337
Dec 2018275
Nov 2018338
Oct 2018350
Sept 2018357
Aug 2018348
Jul 2018340
Jun 2018325
May 2018318
Apr 2018300
Mar 2018300
Feb 2018287
Jan 2018275
Dec 2017275
Nov 2017260
Oct 2017280
Sept 2017300
Aug 2017270
Jul 2017290
Jun 2017313
May 2017300
Apr 2017275
Mar 2017283
Feb 2017275
Jan 2017280
Dec 2016269
Nov 2016281
Oct 2016306
Sept 2016338
Aug 2016325
Jul 2016325
Jun 2016325
May 2016305
Apr 2016338
Mar 2016338
Feb 2016281
Jan 2016275
Dec 2015269
Nov 2015300
Oct 2015331
May 2015306
Apr 2015325
Mar 2015283
Feb 2015263
Jan 2015250
Dec 2014275
Nov 2014281
Oct 2014300
Sept 2014283
Aug 2014275
Jul 2014269
Jun 2014250
May 2014250
Apr 2014250
Mar 2014267
Feb 2014250
Oct 2011340
Sept 2011308
Aug 2011359
Jul 2011325
Jun 2011325
May 2011303
Apr 2011252
Mar 2011235
Feb 2011230
Jan 2011230
Dec 2010230
Nov 2010235
Oct 2010250
Sept 2010265
Aug 2010250
Jul 2010250
Jun 2010267
May 2010275
Apr 2010250
Mar 2010250
Feb 2010250
Jan 2010250
Dec 2009250
Nov 2009265
Oct 2009298
Sept 2009350
Aug 2009350
Jul 2009300
Jun 2009281
May 2009275
Apr 2009275
Mar 2009273
Feb 2009275
Jan 2009272
Dec 2008250
Nov 2008256
Oct 2008319
Sept 2008355
Aug 2008380
Jul 2008335
Jun 2008293
May 2008280
Apr 2008275
Mar 2008272
Feb 2008252
Jan 2008231
Dec 2007240
Nov 2007231
Oct 2007227
Sept 2007250
Aug 2007250
Jul 2007250
Jun 2007250
May 2007250
Apr 2007250
Mar 2007231
Feb 2007250
Jan 2007228

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-908-71-retail-kg.