Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Millet in Tonka

Tombouctou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

242–440

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

229–482

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

10%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 15% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 242 and 440 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 229 and 482 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Tonka: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 15% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 242 and 440 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 229 and 482 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 721); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 266–375 316 259–412 360 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 246–405 306 239–530 349 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 242–440 308 205–640 362 10%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 235–455 303 197–640 354 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 229–482 295 193–721 343 –
Price history (203 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026323
Jul 2026336
Jun 2026300
May 2026281
Apr 2026300
Mar 2026324
Feb 2026300
Jan 2026350
Dec 2025374
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025250
Aug 2025330
Jun 2025300
May 2025325
Apr 2025350
Mar 2025325
Feb 2025350
Jan 2025325
Dec 2024400
Oct 2024300
Sept 2024450
Aug 2024450
Jul 2024400
Jun 2024320
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024338
Feb 2024305
Jan 2024350
Dec 2023350
Nov 2023350
Oct 2023350
Sept 2023400
Aug 2023350
Jul 2023336
Jun 2023350
May 2023350
Apr 2023350
Feb 2023250
Jan 2023250
Nov 2022440
Oct 2022428
Sept 2022420
Aug 2022515
Jul 2022512
Jun 2022420
May 2022440
Apr 2022340
Mar 2022351
Feb 2022330
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021290
Nov 2021260
Oct 2021240
Sept 2021240
Aug 2021224
Jul 2021275
Jun 2021275
May 2021270
Apr 2021227
Mar 2021216
Feb 2021213
Jan 2021219
Dec 2020200
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020230
Sept 2020230
Aug 2020218
Jul 2020235
Jun 2020200
May 2020250
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020215
Dec 2019220
Nov 2019300
Oct 2019300
Sept 2019250
Aug 2019300
Jul 2019300
Jun 2019300
May 2019300
Apr 2019300
Mar 2019275
Feb 2019230
Jan 2019260
Dec 2018267
Nov 2018260
Oct 2018275
Sept 2018291
Aug 2018302
Jul 2018300
Jun 2018285
May 2018286
Apr 2018288
Mar 2018280
Feb 2018260
Jan 2018285
Dec 2017287
Nov 2017265
Oct 2017250
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017250
Jul 2017240
Jun 2017250
May 2017248
Apr 2017248
Mar 2017250
Feb 2017243
Jan 2017220
Dec 2016205
Nov 2016205
Oct 2016210
Sept 2016193
Aug 2016213
Jul 2016235
Jun 2016240
May 2016220
Apr 2016238
Mar 2016248
Feb 2016213
Jan 2016210
Dec 2015210
Nov 2015220
Oct 2015213
Aug 2015240
Jul 2015240
Jun 2015240
May 2015230
Apr 2015250
Mar 2015243
Feb 2015253
Jan 2015240
Dec 2014250
Nov 2014218
Oct 2014227
Sept 2014233
Aug 2014240
Jul 2014240
Jun 2014240
May 2014240
Apr 2014247
Mar 2014247
Feb 2014235
Oct 2011214
Sept 2011200
Aug 2011200
Jul 2011200
Jun 2011200
May 2011200
Apr 2011200
Mar 2011200
Feb 2011200
Jan 2011210
Dec 2010211
Nov 2010215
Oct 2010221
Sept 2010225
Aug 2010208
Jul 2010215
Jun 2010222
May 2010222
Apr 2010277
Mar 2010236
Feb 2010236
Jan 2010235
Dec 2009202
Nov 2009216
Oct 2009200
Sept 2009207
Aug 2009222
Jul 2009222
Jun 2009213
May 2009210
Apr 2009210
Mar 2009210
Feb 2009208
Jan 2009200
Dec 2008200
Nov 2008188
Oct 2008191
Sept 2008200
Aug 2008200
Jul 2008200
Jun 2008195
May 2008182
Apr 2008176
Mar 2008169
Feb 2008172
Jan 2008166
Dec 2007166
Nov 2007161
Oct 2007151
Sept 2007200
Aug 2007210
Jul 2007222
Jun 2007217
May 2007222
Apr 2007200
Mar 2007194
Feb 2007159
Jan 2007175

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-908-73-retail-kg.