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Food basket in Tonka

Tombouctou, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,901–5,283

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,746–5,785

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,880 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,901 and 5,283 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,746 and 5,785 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Tonka: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,880 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,901 and 5,283 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,746 and 5,785 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 8,654); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,191–4,499 3,797 3,108–4,950
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,949–4,857 3,668 2,871–6,365
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,901–5,283 3,700 2,458–7,675
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,817–5,464 3,636 2,367–7,679
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,746–5,785 3,535 2,316–8,654
Cost history (203 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,880
Jul 20264,032
Jun 20263,600
May 20263,375
Apr 20263,600
Mar 20263,885
Feb 20263,600
Jan 20264,200
Dec 20254,485
Oct 20253,000
Sept 20253,000
Aug 20253,960
Jun 20253,600
May 20253,900
Apr 20254,200
Mar 20253,900
Feb 20254,200
Jan 20253,900
Dec 20244,800
Oct 20243,600
Sept 20245,400
Aug 20245,400
Jul 20244,800
Jun 20243,840
May 20243,600
Apr 20243,600
Mar 20244,056
Feb 20243,660
Jan 20244,200
Dec 20234,200
Nov 20234,200
Oct 20234,200
Sept 20234,800
Aug 20234,200
Jul 20234,038
Jun 20234,200
May 20234,200
Apr 20234,200
Feb 20233,000
Jan 20233,000
Nov 20225,280
Oct 20225,136
Sept 20225,040
Aug 20226,180
Jul 20226,144
Jun 20225,040
May 20225,280
Apr 20224,080
Mar 20224,212
Feb 20223,960
Jan 20223,600
Dec 20213,480
Nov 20213,120
Oct 20212,880
Sept 20212,880
Aug 20212,688
Jul 20213,300
Jun 20213,300
May 20213,240
Apr 20212,724
Mar 20212,592
Feb 20212,556
Jan 20212,628
Dec 20202,400
Nov 20202,400
Oct 20202,760
Sept 20202,760
Aug 20202,616
Jul 20202,820
Jun 20202,400
May 20203,000
Apr 20202,400
Mar 20202,400
Feb 20202,400
Jan 20202,580
Dec 20192,640
Nov 20193,600
Oct 20193,600
Sept 20193,000
Aug 20193,600
Jul 20193,600
Jun 20193,600
May 20193,600
Apr 20193,600
Mar 20193,300
Feb 20192,760
Jan 20193,120
Dec 20183,204
Nov 20183,120
Oct 20183,300
Sept 20183,492
Aug 20183,624
Jul 20183,600
Jun 20183,420
May 20183,432
Apr 20183,456
Mar 20183,360
Feb 20183,120
Jan 20183,420
Dec 20173,444
Nov 20173,180
Oct 20173,000
Sept 20173,000
Aug 20173,000
Jul 20172,880
Jun 20173,000
May 20172,976
Apr 20172,976
Mar 20173,000
Feb 20172,916
Jan 20172,640
Dec 20162,460
Nov 20162,460
Oct 20162,520
Sept 20162,316
Aug 20162,556
Jul 20162,820
Jun 20162,880
May 20162,640
Apr 20162,856
Mar 20162,976
Feb 20162,556
Jan 20162,520
Dec 20152,520
Nov 20152,640
Oct 20152,556
Aug 20152,880
Jul 20152,880
Jun 20152,880
May 20152,760
Apr 20153,000
Mar 20152,916
Feb 20153,036
Jan 20152,880
Dec 20143,000
Nov 20142,616
Oct 20142,724
Sept 20142,796
Aug 20142,880
Jul 20142,880
Jun 20142,880
May 20142,880
Apr 20142,964
Mar 20142,964
Feb 20142,820
Oct 20112,568
Sept 20112,400
Aug 20112,400
Jul 20112,400
Jun 20112,400
May 20112,400
Apr 20112,400
Mar 20112,400
Feb 20112,400
Jan 20112,520
Dec 20102,535
Nov 20102,580
Oct 20102,652
Sept 20102,700
Aug 20102,496
Jul 20102,580
Jun 20102,664
May 20102,664
Apr 20103,324
Mar 20102,829
Feb 20102,832
Jan 20102,822
Dec 20092,424
Nov 20092,598
Oct 20092,400
Sept 20092,488
Aug 20092,664
Jul 20092,664
Jun 20092,556
May 20092,520
Apr 20092,520
Mar 20092,520
Feb 20092,490
Jan 20092,400
Dec 20082,400
Nov 20082,256
Oct 20082,292
Sept 20082,400
Aug 20082,400
Jul 20082,400
Jun 20082,345
May 20082,190
Apr 20082,106
Mar 20082,026
Feb 20082,058
Jan 20081,992
Dec 20071,992
Nov 20071,929
Oct 20071,816
Sept 20072,400
Aug 20072,520
Jul 20072,664
Jun 20072,604
May 20072,664
Apr 20072,400
Mar 20072,328
Feb 20071,904
Jan 20072,098

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189