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Maize in Touna

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 36% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

96.6–180

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

94.6–223

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 96.6 and 180 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 94.6 and 223 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Touna: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 96.6 and 180 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 94.6 and 223 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 454); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 127–162 140 103–185 241 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 107–167 135 82.7–231 202 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 96.6–180 121 78.7–284 177 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 98–203 125 79.4–414 189 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 94.6–223 125 68.7–454 183 –
Price history (163 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026140
Jun 2026150
May 2026140
Apr 2026140
Mar 2026140
Feb 2026140
Jan 2026141
Dec 2025146
Oct 2025135
Sept 2025150
Aug 2025166
Jul 2025216
Jun 2025210
May 2025210
Apr 2025219
Mar 2025212
Feb 2025215
Jan 2025212
Dec 2024198
Nov 2024175
Oct 2024233
Sept 2024260
Aug 2024277
Jul 2024260
Jun 2024225
May 2024184
Apr 2024179
Mar 2024175
Jan 2024173
Nov 2023154
Oct 2023173
Sept 2023204
Aug 2023210
Jul 2023210
Jun 2023205
May 2023190
Apr 2023210
Mar 2023225
Dec 2022210
Nov 2022196
Oct 2022199
Sept 2022294
Aug 2022325
Jul 2022308
Jun 2022282
May 2022279
Apr 2022275
Mar 2022244
Feb 2022225
Jan 2022214
Dec 2021198
Nov 2021185
Oct 2021173
Sept 2021196
Aug 2021181
Jul 2021165
Jun 2021163
May 2021160
Apr 2021160
Mar 2021152
Feb 2021140
Jan 2021125
Nov 2020121
Oct 2020140
Sept 2020130
Aug 2020129
Jul 2020117
Jun 2020115
May 2020110
Apr 2020110
Mar 2020105
Feb 2020102
Jan 202095
Dec 201995
Nov 201975
Sept 2019100
Aug 2019125
Jun 2019125
May 2019125
Apr 2019120
Mar 2019125
Jan 2019100
Dec 2018110
Nov 2018100
Sept 2018400
Aug 2018175
Jul 2018175
Jun 2018175
May 2018175
Apr 2018162
Mar 2018150
Feb 2018146
Jan 2018144
Dec 2017135
Nov 2017126
Oct 2017126
Sept 2017157
Aug 2017352Data error
Jul 2017143
Jun 2017143
May 2017137
Apr 2017125
Mar 2017125
Feb 2017120
Jan 2017115
Dec 2016115
Nov 2016125
Oct 2016130
Sept 2016135
Aug 2016135
Jul 2016135
Jun 2016129
May 2016130
Apr 2016125
Mar 2016125
Feb 2016125
Jan 2016125
Dec 2015118
Nov 2015107
Oct 2015144
Aug 2015133
Jul 2015130
Jun 2015126
May 2015125
Apr 2015100
Mar 2015100
Feb 2015100
Jan 2015100
Dec 2014100
Nov 2014105
Oct 2014117
Sept 2014118
Aug 2014112
Jul 2014120
Jun 2014122
May 2014122
Apr 2014120
Mar 2014119
Feb 2014120
Jan 2014120
Dec 2013120
Nov 2013120
Oct 2013125
Sept 2013150
Aug 2013149
Jul 2013137
Sept 2012210
Aug 2012210
Jul 2012210
Jun 2012210
Oct 2011142
Sept 2011138
Aug 2011138
Jul 2011139
Jun 2011125
Oct 2009104
Sept 2009125
Aug 2009150
Jul 2009150
Jun 2009142
May 2009132
Apr 2009133
Mar 2009140

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-909-51-retail-kg.