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Sorghum in Touna

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 35% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

94.4–199

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

92.2–230

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 35% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 12% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 94.4 and 199 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 92.2 and 230 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Touna: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 35% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 12% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 94.4 and 199 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 92.2 and 230 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 406); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 126–169 141 115–217 220 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 109–187 140 75.9–303 212 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 94.4–199 131 64.6–339 189 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 89.4–210 129 59.5–382 187 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 92.2–230 126 72.7–406 182 –
Price history (157 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026140
Jul 2026150
Jun 2026150
May 2026125
Apr 2026125
Mar 2026125
Feb 2026125
Jan 2026136
Dec 2025144
Oct 2025135
Sept 2025150
Aug 2025166
Jul 2025214
Jun 2025200
May 2025200
Apr 2025210
Mar 2025217
Feb 2025225
Jan 2025217
Dec 2024200
Nov 2024219
Oct 2024305
Sept 2024306
Aug 2024298
Jul 2024309
Jun 2024275
May 2024223
Apr 2024218
Mar 2024210
Jan 2024191
Nov 2023202
Oct 2023213
Sept 2023219
Aug 2023220
Jul 2023223
Jun 2023198
May 2023190
Apr 2023210
Mar 2023225
Dec 2022200
Nov 2022235
Oct 2022281
Sept 2022350
Aug 2022346
Jul 2022326
Jun 2022306
May 2022300
Apr 2022300
Mar 2022264
Feb 2022248
Jan 2022218
Dec 2021195
Nov 2021180
Oct 2021170
Sept 2021171
Aug 2021160
Jul 2021145
Jun 2021148
May 2021140
Apr 2021140
Feb 2021133
Jan 2021125
Nov 2020130
Oct 2020145
Sept 2020136
Aug 2020138
Jul 2020129
Jun 2020125
May 2020130
Apr 2020130
Mar 2020115
Feb 2020112
Jan 2020102
Dec 2019125
Nov 201975
Sept 2019120
Aug 2019125
Jul 2019110
Jun 2019150
May 2019130
Apr 2019325Data error
Mar 2019135
Jan 2019125
Dec 2018125
Nov 2018125
Oct 2018130
Sept 2018200
Aug 2018210
Jul 2018210
Jun 2018212
May 2018213
Apr 2018197
Mar 2018190
Feb 2018190
Jan 2018185
Dec 2017168
Nov 2017178
Oct 2017183
Sept 2017191
Aug 2017179
Jul 2017172
Jun 2017172
May 2017161
Apr 2017153
Mar 2017150
Feb 2017136
Jan 2017129
Dec 2016125
Nov 2016148
Oct 2016140
Sept 2016135
Aug 2016135
Jul 2016135
Jun 2016133
May 2016136
Apr 2016130
Mar 2016130
Feb 2016125
Jan 2016126
Dec 2015132
Nov 2015137
Oct 2015163
Aug 2015153
Jul 2015150
Jun 2015148
May 2015140
Apr 2015125
Mar 2015125
Feb 2015125
Jan 2015125
Dec 2014125
Nov 2014138
Oct 2014150
Sept 2014145
Aug 2014144
Jul 2014146
Jun 2014146
May 2014144
Apr 2014140
Mar 2014140
Feb 2014140
Jan 2014138
Dec 2013142
Nov 2013144
Oct 2013146
Sept 2013150
Aug 2013149
Jul 2013140
Sept 2012240
Aug 2012240
Jul 2012240
Jun 2012240
Oct 2011144
Sept 2011136
Aug 2011137
Jul 2011138
Jun 2011125

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-909-65-retail-kg.