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Rice (local) in Touna

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

383–475

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

363–496

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 383 and 475 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 363 and 496 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Touna: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 383 and 475 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 363 and 496 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 728); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 399–443 412 387–453 495 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 394–451 413 374–464 503 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 383–475 413 338–604 473 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 372–501 410 332–728 460 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 363–496 405 314–676 464 –
Price history (196 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026412
Jul 2026412
Jun 2026413
May 2026412
Apr 2026413
Mar 2026412
Feb 2026412
Jan 2026434
Oct 2025440
Sept 2025450
Aug 2025459
Jun 2025450
May 2025450
Apr 2025463
Mar 2025463
Feb 2025463
Jan 2025463
Nov 2024472
Oct 2024535
Sept 2024550
Aug 2024483
Jul 2024463
Jun 2024463
May 2024473
Apr 2024450
Mar 2024425
Jan 2024433
Nov 2023453
Oct 2023463
Sept 2023469
Aug 2023450
Jul 2023450
Jun 2023463
May 2023463
Apr 2023472
Mar 2023525
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022448
Oct 2022478
Sept 2022469
Aug 2022453
Jul 2022419
Jun 2022413
May 2022406
Apr 2022386
Mar 2022378
Feb 2022375
Jan 2022369
Nov 2021366
Oct 2021375
Sept 2021375
Aug 2021353
Jul 2021350
Jun 2021350
May 2021350
Apr 2021350
Mar 2021348
Feb 2021338
Nov 2020338
Oct 2020338
Sept 2020338
Aug 2020338
Jul 2020330
Jun 2020325
May 2020325
Apr 2020325
Mar 2020318
Feb 2020312
Jan 2020312
Dec 2019312
Nov 2019325
Sept 2019350
Aug 2019350
Jun 2019350
May 2019350
Apr 2019325
Mar 2019350
Oct 2018400
Sept 2018180Data error
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018375
Jun 2018375
May 2018375
Apr 2018368
Mar 2018362
Feb 2018362
Jan 2018350
Nov 2017355
Oct 2017378
Sept 2017378
Aug 2017352
Jul 2017342
Jun 2017343
May 2017338
Apr 2017336
Mar 2017338
Feb 2017338
Jan 2017331
Nov 2016329
Oct 2016343
Sept 2016342
Aug 2016329
Jul 2016325
Jun 2016327
May 2016329
Apr 2016325
Mar 2016323
Feb 2016313
Jan 2016321
Dec 2015320
Nov 2015333
Oct 2015354
May 2015346
Apr 2015315
Mar 2015313
Feb 2015313
Jan 2015313
Dec 2014318
Nov 2014333
Oct 2014338
Sept 2014338
Aug 2014311
Jul 2014298
Jun 2014309
May 2014312
Apr 2014290
Mar 2014296
Feb 2014291
Jan 2014265
Dec 2013308
Nov 2013309
Oct 2013313
Sept 2013316
Aug 2013313
Jul 2013310
Sept 2012350
Aug 2012338
Jul 2012354
Jun 2012390
Oct 2011369
Sept 2011364
Aug 2011333
Jul 2011323
Jun 2011320
May 2011324
Apr 2011303
Mar 2011279
Feb 2011296
Jan 2011298
Dec 2010296
Nov 2010302
Oct 2010305
Sept 2010314
Aug 2010309
Jul 2010301
Jun 2010296
May 2010299
Apr 2010305
Mar 2010296
Feb 2010311
Jan 2010315
Dec 2009314
Nov 2009311
Oct 2009304
Sept 2009317
Aug 2009313
Jul 2009322
Jun 2009319
May 2009325
Apr 2009339
Mar 2009355
Feb 2009350
Dec 2008350
Nov 2008325
Oct 2008375
Sept 2008394
Aug 2008375
Jul 2008375
Jun 2008350
May 2008342
Apr 2008325
Mar 2008300
Feb 2008285
Jan 2008275
Dec 2007275
Nov 2007275
Oct 2007291
Sept 2007275
Aug 2007275
Jul 2007275
Jun 2007275
May 2007275
Apr 2007275
Mar 2007275
Feb 2007275
Jan 2007275

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-909-71-retail-kg.