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Rice (local) in Zangasso

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 12% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

397–501

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

329–532

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 397 and 501 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 329 and 532 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Zangasso: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 397 and 501 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 329 and 532 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 757); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 412–474 436 404–525 509 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 408–489 437 405–567 518 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 397–501 434 380–615 505 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 392–537 435 362–757 493 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 329–532 398 291–757 427 –
Price history (187 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026438
Jul 2026428
Jun 2026463
May 2026462
Apr 2026466
Mar 2026475
Feb 2026475
Jan 2026475
Dec 2025475
Oct 2025475
Sept 2025475
Aug 2025455
Jun 2025475
May 2025475
Apr 2025494
Mar 2025475
Feb 2025469
Dec 2024469
Nov 2024485
Oct 2024519
Sept 2024500
Aug 2024519
Jul 2024538
Jun 2024556
May 2024490
Apr 2024463
Mar 2024450
Jan 2024438
Nov 2023462
Oct 2023460
Sept 2023456
Aug 2023450
Jul 2023453
Jun 2023468
May 2023475
Apr 2023475
Mar 2023500
Dec 2022475
Nov 2022469
Oct 2022475
Sept 2022468
Aug 2022438
Jul 2022413
Jun 2022413
May 2022413
Apr 2022408
Mar 2022378
Feb 2022375
Dec 2021363
Nov 2021372
Oct 2021388
Sept 2021365
Aug 2021365
Jul 2021350
Jun 2021344
May 2021350
Apr 2021338
Mar 2021350
Feb 2021350
Jan 2021225
Dec 2020338
Nov 2020331
Oct 2020358
Sept 2020351
Aug 2020341
Jul 2020338
Jun 2020338
May 2020340
Apr 2020334
Mar 2020337
Feb 2020325
Jan 2020336
Dec 2019335
Aug 2018395
Jul 2018392
Jun 2018392
May 2018393
Apr 2018375
Mar 2018343
Feb 2018351
Dec 2017354
Nov 2017355
Oct 2017350
Sept 2017350
Aug 2017361
Jul 2017375
Jun 2017372
May 2017344
Apr 2017338
Mar 2017313
Feb 2017337
Dec 2016325
Nov 2016325
Oct 2016338
Sept 2016338
Aug 2016338
Jul 2016325
Jun 2016325
May 2016325
Apr 2016325
Mar 2016331
Feb 2016325
Jan 2016325
Dec 2015325
Nov 2015329
Oct 2015369
May 2015328
Apr 2015325
Mar 2015325
Feb 2015325
Jan 2015325
Dec 2014325
Nov 2014325
Oct 2014344
Sept 2014333
Aug 2014338
Jul 2014313
Jun 2014313
May 2014312
Apr 2014313
Mar 2014300
Feb 2014303
Jan 2014310
Dec 2013300
Nov 2013309
Oct 2013313
Sept 2013312
Aug 2013312
Jul 2013312
Sept 2012363
Aug 2012370
Jul 2012388
Jun 2012390
Oct 2011366
Sept 2011369
Aug 2011355
Jul 2011338
Jun 2011328
May 2011325
Apr 2011315
Mar 2011312
Feb 2011312
Dec 2010325
Nov 2010325
Oct 2010301
Sept 2010312
Aug 2010312
Jul 2010325
Jun 2010312
May 2010312
Apr 2010325
Mar 2010325
Feb 2010325
Dec 2009319
Nov 2009275
Oct 2009340
Sept 2009358
Aug 2009350
Jul 2009350
Jun 2009350
May 2009350
Apr 2009350
Mar 2009350
Jan 2009348
Dec 2008351
Nov 2008344
Oct 2008390
Sept 2008350
Aug 2008361
Jul 2008379
Jun 2008362
May 2008340
Apr 2008293
Mar 2008278
Jan 2008238
Dec 2007262
Nov 2007262
Oct 2007269
Sept 2007272
Aug 2007254
Jul 2007248
Jun 2007275
May 2007275
Apr 2007275
Mar 2007275
Feb 2007275
Jan 2007275

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-910-71-retail-kg.