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Maize in Macina

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 22% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

159–342

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

149–402

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

9%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 17% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 159 and 342 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 149 and 402 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Macina: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 17% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 159 and 342 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 149 and 402 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 790); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 192–288 242 159–320 296 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 174–303 234 139–401 289 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 159–342 224 116–572 280 9%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 155–366 224 116–682 288 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 149–402 214 97.4–790 268 –
Price history (130 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026250
Jun 2026300
May 2026300
Apr 2026300
Mar 2026300
Feb 2026300
Jan 2026260
Dec 2025347
Oct 2025225
Sept 2025244
Aug 2025265
May 2025500
Apr 2025220
Feb 2025220
Jan 2025220
Dec 2024273
Oct 2024300
Sept 2024300
Aug 2024375
May 2024250
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023263
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jun 2023300
May 2023281
Apr 2023260
Mar 2023275
Feb 2023275
Dec 2022275
Nov 2022275
Oct 2022315
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022400
May 2022300
Apr 2022300
Mar 2022288
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022250
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021250
Oct 2021220
Sept 2021150
Aug 2021150
Jun 2021150
May 2021150
Apr 2021150
Mar 2021150
Feb 2021150
Jan 2021150
Dec 2020150
Nov 2020150
Oct 2020150
Sept 2020150
Aug 2020190
Jul 2020250
May 2020217
Apr 2020180
Mar 2020180
Feb 2020180
Jan 2020180
Dec 2019180
Nov 2019180
Oct 2019215
Sept 2019250
Aug 2019250
Jun 2019250
May 2019250
Apr 2019250
Mar 2019250
Feb 2019250
Jan 2019250
Dec 2018250
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018250
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018212
Mar 2018175
Feb 2018175
Jan 2018175
Dec 2017175
Nov 2017178
Oct 2017180
Sept 2017213
Aug 2017327
Jul 2017250
May 2017219
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015200
Nov 2015200
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
May 2015233
Apr 2015250
Mar 2015250
Feb 2015242
Jan 2015250
Dec 2014225
Nov 2014225
Oct 2014225
Sept 2014217
Aug 2014200
Jul 2014200
Jun 2014200
May 2014200
Apr 2014200
Sept 2012220
Aug 2012220
Jul 2012223
Jun 2012230

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-911-51-retail-kg.