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Rice (local) in Macina

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 21% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

294–417

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

287–404

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 294 and 417 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 287 and 404 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Macina: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 294 and 417 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 287 and 404 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 333–406 349 308–428 456 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 319–415 349 298–552 432 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 294–417 342 245–565 402 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 297–443 345 263–639 413 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 287–404 338 250–426 395 –
Price history (155 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026348
Jul 2026361
Jun 2026347
May 2026352
Apr 2026357
Mar 2026359
Feb 2026359
Jan 2026355
Dec 2025435
Oct 2025375
Sept 2025374
Aug 2025410
May 2025497
Apr 2025423
Mar 2025447
Feb 2025422
Jan 2025423
Dec 2024427
Oct 2024475
Sept 2024521
Aug 2024456
Jul 2024422
Jun 2024414
May 2024423
Apr 2024415
Mar 2024399
Jan 2024357
Nov 2023345
Oct 2023384
Sept 2023415
Aug 2023428
Jul 2023407
Jun 2023413
May 2023423
Apr 2023418
Mar 2023425
Feb 2023425
Dec 2022413
Nov 2022390
Oct 2022410
Sept 2022465
Aug 2022456
Jul 2022380
Jun 2022363
May 2022371
Apr 2022373
Mar 2022355
Feb 2022341
Jan 2022328
Dec 2021333
Nov 2021333
Oct 2021361
Sept 2021339
Aug 2021334
Jul 2021317
Jun 2021321
May 2021330
Apr 2021328
Mar 2021322
Feb 2021317
Jan 2021293
Dec 2020298
Nov 2020290
Oct 2020304
Sept 2020320
Aug 2020297
Jul 2020275
Jun 2020281
May 2020313
Apr 2020308
Mar 2020288
Feb 2020273
Jan 2020263
Dec 2019262
Nov 2019262
Oct 2019262
Sept 2019300
Aug 2019307
Jul 2019307
Jun 2019307
May 2019307
Apr 2019292
Mar 2019292
Feb 2019285
Jan 2019302
Dec 2018283
Nov 2018302
Oct 2018332
Sept 2018365
Aug 2018362
Jul 2018362
Jun 2018362
May 2018361
Apr 2018350
Mar 2018317
Feb 2018308
Jan 2018295
Dec 2017299
Nov 2017312
Oct 2017333
Sept 2017337
Aug 2017327
Jul 2017296
Jun 2017289
May 2017306
Apr 2017299
Mar 2017290
Feb 2017286
Jan 2017275
Dec 2016279
Nov 2016286
Oct 2016309
Sept 2016313
Aug 2016338
Jul 2016300
Jun 2016322
May 2016325
Apr 2016293
Mar 2016288
Feb 2016288
Jan 2016276
Dec 2015280
Nov 2015275
Oct 2015331
May 2015325
Apr 2015305
Mar 2015300
Feb 2015283
Jan 2015275
Dec 2014275
Nov 2014265
Oct 2014308
Sept 2014300
Aug 2014275
Jul 2014256
Jun 2014253
May 2014275
Apr 2014272
Mar 2014262
Feb 2014270
Jan 2014274
Dec 2013275
Nov 2013272
Oct 2013275
Sept 2013288
Aug 2013292
Jul 2013256
Sept 2012303
Aug 2012298
Jul 2012299
Jun 2012312
Oct 2011335
Sept 2011338
Aug 2011325
Jul 2011300

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-911-71-retail-kg.