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Millet in Macina

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

187–394

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

173–460

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

9%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 15% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 187 and 394 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 173 and 460 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Macina: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 15% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 187 and 394 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 173 and 460 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 943); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 224–327 255 196–412 326 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 210–368 255 174–618 327 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 187–394 252 130–603 316 9%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 180–443 248 138–916 310 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 173–460 239 130–943 289 –
Price history (159 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026254
Jul 2026300
Jun 2026300
May 2026300
Apr 2026300
Mar 2026300
Feb 2026300
Jan 2026260
Dec 2025349
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025238
Aug 2025290
May 2025450
Apr 2025325
Mar 2025485
Feb 2025325
Jan 2025325
Dec 2024325
Oct 2024344
Sept 2024340
Aug 2024321
Jul 2024319
Jun 2024282
May 2024250
Apr 2024231
Mar 2024225
Jan 2024194
Nov 2023200
Oct 2023200
Sept 2023210
Aug 2023206
Jul 2023170
Jun 2023169
May 2023156
Apr 2023200
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023250
Dec 2022250
Nov 2022225
Oct 2022310
Sept 2022363
Aug 2022363
Jul 2022350
Jun 2022350
May 2022350
Apr 2022305
Mar 2022263
Feb 2022225
Jan 2022225
Dec 2021235
Nov 2021238
Oct 2021175
Sept 2021150
Aug 2021150
Jul 2021150
Jun 2021150
May 2021150
Apr 2021150
Mar 2021150
Feb 2021131
Jan 2021145
Dec 2020150
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020190
Jul 2020150
Jun 2020150
May 2020150
Apr 2020150
Mar 2020143
Feb 2020125
Jan 2020125
Dec 2019125
Nov 2019125
Oct 2019150
Sept 2019156
Aug 2019175
Jul 2019175
Jun 2019175
May 2019168
Apr 2019150
Mar 2019150
Feb 2019150
Jan 2019200
Dec 2018155
Nov 2018200
Oct 2018225
Sept 2018215
Aug 2018200
Jul 2018200
Jun 2018205
May 2018200
Apr 2018178
Mar 2018158
Feb 2018157
Jan 2018167
Dec 2017191
Nov 2017200
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017206
Aug 2017185
Jul 2017176
Jun 2017175
May 2017175
Apr 2017165
Mar 2017150
Feb 2017131
Jan 2017125
Dec 2016131
Nov 2016169
Oct 2016161
Sept 2016152
Aug 2016150
Jul 2016143
Jun 2016136
May 2016133
Apr 2016125
Mar 2016125
Feb 2016125
Jan 2016125
Dec 2015144
Nov 2015150
Oct 2015150
Aug 2015169
Jul 2015150
Jun 2015150
May 2015150
Apr 2015150
Mar 2015145
Feb 2015130
Jan 2015127
Dec 2014150
Nov 2014142
Oct 2014150
Sept 2014145
Aug 2014144
Jul 2014146
Jun 2014150
May 2014137
Apr 2014127
Mar 2014130
Feb 2014132
Jan 2014131
Dec 2013150
Nov 2013150
Oct 2013150
Sept 2013150
Aug 2013150
Jul 2013150
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012265
Jul 2012263
Jun 2012261
Oct 2011155
Sept 2011118
Aug 2011125
Jul 2011120
Nov 2010100

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-911-73-retail-kg.