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Food basket in Macina

Segou, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,244–4,732

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,076–5,521

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,048 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,244 and 4,732 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,076 and 5,521 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Macina: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,048 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,244 and 4,732 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,076 and 5,521 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 11,317); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,693–3,921 3,065 2,347–4,941
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,520–4,417 3,059 2,086–7,415
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,244–4,732 3,020 1,555–7,239
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,160–5,314 2,972 1,655–10,992
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,076–5,521 2,866 1,560–11,317
Cost history (159 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,048
Jul 20263,600
Jun 20263,600
May 20263,600
Apr 20263,600
Mar 20263,600
Feb 20263,600
Jan 20263,120
Dec 20254,188
Oct 20253,000
Sept 20252,856
Aug 20253,480
May 20255,400
Apr 20253,900
Mar 20255,820
Feb 20253,900
Jan 20253,900
Dec 20243,900
Oct 20244,128
Sept 20244,080
Aug 20243,852
Jul 20243,828
Jun 20243,384
May 20243,000
Apr 20242,772
Mar 20242,700
Jan 20242,328
Nov 20232,400
Oct 20232,400
Sept 20232,520
Aug 20232,472
Jul 20232,040
Jun 20232,028
May 20231,872
Apr 20232,400
Mar 20233,000
Feb 20233,000
Dec 20223,000
Nov 20222,700
Oct 20223,720
Sept 20224,356
Aug 20224,356
Jul 20224,200
Jun 20224,200
May 20224,200
Apr 20223,660
Mar 20223,156
Feb 20222,700
Jan 20222,700
Dec 20212,820
Nov 20212,856
Oct 20212,100
Sept 20211,800
Aug 20211,800
Jul 20211,800
Jun 20211,800
May 20211,800
Apr 20211,800
Mar 20211,800
Feb 20211,572
Jan 20211,740
Dec 20201,800
Nov 20202,400
Oct 20202,400
Sept 20202,400
Aug 20202,280
Jul 20201,800
Jun 20201,800
May 20201,800
Apr 20201,800
Mar 20201,716
Feb 20201,500
Jan 20201,500
Dec 20191,500
Nov 20191,500
Oct 20191,800
Sept 20191,872
Aug 20192,100
Jul 20192,100
Jun 20192,100
May 20192,016
Apr 20191,800
Mar 20191,800
Feb 20191,800
Jan 20192,400
Dec 20181,860
Nov 20182,400
Oct 20182,700
Sept 20182,580
Aug 20182,400
Jul 20182,400
Jun 20182,460
May 20182,400
Apr 20182,136
Mar 20181,896
Feb 20181,884
Jan 20182,004
Dec 20172,292
Nov 20172,400
Oct 20172,400
Sept 20172,472
Aug 20172,220
Jul 20172,114
Jun 20172,100
May 20172,100
Apr 20171,980
Mar 20171,800
Feb 20171,572
Jan 20171,500
Dec 20161,572
Nov 20162,028
Oct 20161,932
Sept 20161,824
Aug 20161,800
Jul 20161,716
Jun 20161,632
May 20161,596
Apr 20161,500
Mar 20161,500
Feb 20161,500
Jan 20161,500
Dec 20151,728
Nov 20151,800
Oct 20151,800
Aug 20152,028
Jul 20151,800
Jun 20151,800
May 20151,800
Apr 20151,800
Mar 20151,740
Feb 20151,560
Jan 20151,524
Dec 20141,800
Nov 20141,704
Oct 20141,800
Sept 20141,740
Aug 20141,730
Jul 20141,752
Jun 20141,800
May 20141,640
Apr 20141,524
Mar 20141,560
Feb 20141,584
Jan 20141,572
Dec 20131,800
Nov 20131,800
Oct 20131,800
Sept 20131,800
Aug 20131,800
Jul 20131,800
Sept 20123,000
Aug 20123,180
Jul 20123,156
Jun 20123,132
Oct 20111,860
Sept 20111,410
Aug 20111,500
Jul 20111,440
Nov 20101,200

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189