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Food basket in Abala

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,146–3,770

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,346–4,083

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,756 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,146 and 3,770 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,346 and 4,083 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Abala: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,756 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,146 and 3,770 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,346 and 4,083 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,953–4,069 3,576 2,711–4,288
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,503–3,810 3,034 2,217–3,882
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,146–3,770 2,842 1,901–3,892
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,326–3,862 2,985 1,984–4,322
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,346–4,083 3,076 1,898–4,447
Cost history (169 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,276
Aug 20263,756
Jul 20264,272
Jun 20263,924
May 20263,480
Apr 20263,504
Mar 20263,396
Feb 20263,036
Jan 20263,240
Dec 20253,300
Nov 20253,360
Oct 20253,360
Sept 20253,540
Aug 20253,960
Jul 20254,320
Jun 20254,284
May 20254,080
Apr 20254,308
Mar 20254,080
Feb 20253,960
Jan 20253,660
Dec 20243,252
Nov 20243,360
Oct 20243,420
Sept 20244,704
Aug 20244,812
Jul 20245,616
Jun 20244,536
May 20244,404
Apr 20243,852
Mar 20243,720
Feb 20243,720
Jan 20243,468
Dec 20233,480
Nov 20233,600
Oct 20233,600
Sept 20234,800
Feb 20233,684
Jan 20233,252
Dec 20223,492
Nov 20223,876
Oct 20224,224
Sept 20224,956
Aug 20225,268
Jul 20225,460
Jun 20225,580
Apr 20224,584
Mar 20225,196
Feb 20225,292
Jan 20224,188
Dec 20213,804
Nov 20213,000
Oct 20213,348
Sept 20213,720
Aug 20213,600
Jul 20213,600
Jun 20213,600
May 20213,600
Apr 20213,180
Mar 20212,400
Feb 20212,712
Jan 20212,736
Dec 20202,820
Nov 20202,136
Oct 20202,316
Sept 20203,156
Aug 20203,372
Jul 20203,168
Jun 20202,988
May 20202,856
Mar 20202,676
Feb 20202,916
Jan 20202,436
Dec 20191,704
Nov 20191,644
Oct 20192,052
Sept 20192,352
Aug 20192,460
Jul 20192,604
Jun 20192,736
May 20192,652
Apr 20193,120
Mar 20193,120
Jan 20192,520
Dec 20182,436
Nov 20182,184
Oct 20182,976
Aug 20183,624
Jul 20183,792
Jun 20183,792
May 20183,672
Apr 20183,084
Feb 20183,048
Jan 20183,048
Oct 20172,784
Sept 20172,568
Aug 20174,308
Jul 20173,708
May 20173,360
Apr 20173,528
Mar 20173,216
Feb 20173,060
Jan 20172,520
Nov 20161,944
Oct 20162,028
Sept 20163,720
Aug 20163,348
Jul 20163,348
Jun 20162,940
May 20162,772
Mar 20162,772
Feb 20162,400
Jan 20162,400
Dec 20152,196
Oct 20152,676
Sept 20152,736
Aug 20152,748
Jul 20152,736
Jun 20152,736
May 20152,652
Apr 20152,448
Mar 20152,429
Feb 20152,443
Jan 20152,202
Nov 20142,544
Oct 20142,501
Sept 20142,820
May 20143,000
Apr 20143,120
Mar 20142,910
Feb 20142,880
Jan 20142,692
Aug 20133,300
Jul 20133,492
May 20133,150
Mar 20133,120
Jan 20132,620
Oct 20122,280
Sept 20123,680
Aug 20123,777
Jul 20124,055
May 20123,312
Dec 20112,526
Nov 20112,152
Oct 20111,872
Sept 20112,022
Jul 20111,968
Jun 20112,222
May 20111,955
Apr 20111,978
Feb 20112,158
Dec 20101,836
Nov 20102,076
Sept 20103,396
Aug 20103,396
Jul 20103,320
Jun 20103,135
May 20102,687
Apr 20102,920
Feb 20102,568
Jan 20102,692
Dec 20092,618
Nov 20092,184
Oct 20091,872
Sept 20092,712
Aug 20092,820
Jul 20092,220
May 20092,055
Apr 20092,208

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186