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Food basket in Abalak

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,633–3,830

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,549–4,049

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,864 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,633 and 3,830 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,549 and 4,049 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Abalak: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,864 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,633 and 3,830 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,549 and 4,049 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,200–4,003 3,591 2,881–4,050
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,584–3,742 3,117 2,199–3,811
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,633–3,830 3,099 2,391–4,110
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,656–3,908 3,145 2,485–3,928
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,549–4,049 3,156 2,138–4,526
Cost history (177 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,864
Jul 20264,140
Jun 20263,708
May 20263,480
Apr 20263,420
Mar 20263,564
Feb 20263,528
Jan 20263,396
Dec 20253,384
Nov 20253,576
Oct 20253,180
Sept 20253,576
Jul 20253,840
Jun 20254,188
Apr 20254,428
Mar 20254,368
Feb 20253,876
Jan 20253,912
Dec 20243,840
Nov 20243,756
Oct 20243,900
Sept 20245,208
Aug 20245,592
Jul 20245,892
Jun 20245,076
May 20244,740
Apr 20244,512
Mar 20244,380
Feb 20244,380
Jan 20243,996
Dec 20233,948
Nov 20233,948
Oct 20233,864
Sept 20234,764
Aug 20234,872
Jul 20234,080
Jun 20234,296
May 20234,212
Apr 20234,176
Feb 20234,092
Jan 20233,972
Dec 20223,888
Nov 20224,620
Oct 20223,444
Jun 20225,004
Apr 20224,440
Mar 20224,452
Feb 20224,452
Jan 20224,140
Dec 20213,948
Nov 20213,480
Oct 20213,660
Jul 20214,032
Jun 20214,032
May 20214,020
Apr 20213,996
Feb 20213,708
Jan 20213,504
Dec 20202,964
Nov 20202,856
Sept 20204,044
Aug 20204,363
Jul 20203,876
Jun 20203,504
May 20203,480
Apr 20203,372
Mar 20203,252
Feb 20203,192
Jan 20202,880
Dec 20192,712
Nov 20192,472
Oct 20192,664
Aug 20192,724
Jul 20192,280
Jun 20192,868
May 20193,012
Mar 20192,724
Feb 20192,976
Jan 20192,688
Dec 20182,688
Nov 20182,676
Aug 20183,720
Jul 20184,284
Jun 20184,188
May 20184,188
Apr 20183,624
Mar 20183,516
Feb 20183,456
Jan 20183,432
Dec 20173,360
Nov 20173,360
Sept 20173,576
Aug 20174,956
Jul 20174,500
Jun 20173,924
May 20173,840
Apr 20173,660
Mar 20173,204
Feb 20173,432
Jan 20172,448
Oct 20162,292
Sept 20163,828
Aug 20163,576
Jul 20163,000
Jun 20163,000
Mar 20162,304
Feb 20162,544
Jan 20162,304
Aug 20152,616
Jul 20152,772
Jun 20152,460
May 20152,544
Apr 20152,304
Mar 20152,308
Feb 20152,308
Jan 20152,190
Nov 20142,308
Aug 20143,137
Jul 20143,281
Jun 20143,252
May 20143,195
Apr 20143,320
Mar 20143,162
Feb 20143,083
Jan 20143,083
Dec 20133,320
Sept 20133,536
Aug 20133,990
Jul 20134,032
Jun 20133,674
May 20133,492
Apr 20133,492
Mar 20133,264
Jan 20133,081
Dec 20123,204
Sept 20123,468
Aug 20124,468
Jul 20124,432
May 20123,666
Apr 20123,396
Dec 20113,396
Nov 20112,916
Jul 20112,448
Jun 20112,556
May 20112,628
Apr 20112,392
Mar 20112,040
Feb 20112,353
Jan 20112,358
Dec 20102,022
Nov 20102,208
Sept 20102,916
Aug 20103,144
Jul 20103,250
May 20103,228
Apr 20103,000
Mar 20102,844
Feb 20102,796
Jan 20102,796
Aug 20093,401
Jul 20092,940
Jun 20092,742
May 20092,797
Apr 20092,688
Mar 20092,667
Feb 20092,598
Jan 20092,539
Dec 20082,410
Nov 20082,400
Aug 20082,808
Jul 20082,796
Jun 20082,352
May 20082,292
Apr 20082,196
Mar 20082,340
Feb 20082,208
Jan 20082,028

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186