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Food basket in Aderbissinat

Agadez, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,311–3,548

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,346–3,807

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,564 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,311 and 3,548 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,346 and 3,807 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Aderbissinat: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,564 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,311 and 3,548 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,346 and 3,807 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,882–3,689 3,248 2,624–3,845
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,516–3,587 2,874 2,157–3,773
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,311–3,548 2,774 2,143–3,901
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,330–3,689 2,828 1,978–4,298
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,346–3,807 2,933 1,967–4,745
Cost history (207 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,264
Aug 20263,564
Jul 20263,324
Jun 20263,144
May 20263,084
Apr 20262,940
Mar 20262,928
Feb 20262,844
Jan 20262,700
Dec 20252,844
Nov 20252,844
Oct 20252,892
Sept 20253,144
Aug 20253,576
Jul 20253,984
Jun 20254,320
May 20254,284
Apr 20254,284
Mar 20254,416
Feb 20254,152
Jan 20254,188
Dec 20243,720
Nov 20243,708
Oct 20244,200
Sept 20244,848
Aug 20245,784
Jul 20245,604
Jun 20244,704
May 20244,404
Apr 20243,600
Mar 20243,528
Feb 20243,540
Jan 20243,600
Dec 20233,696
Nov 20233,360
Oct 20233,240
Sept 20233,696
Aug 20233,804
Jul 20233,492
Jun 20233,456
May 20233,312
Apr 20233,456
Mar 20233,228
Feb 20233,036
Jan 20233,156
Dec 20223,228
Nov 20223,156
Oct 20223,000
Sept 20224,008
Aug 20223,948
Jul 20224,152
Jun 20223,648
May 20223,984
Apr 20223,888
Mar 20223,768
Jan 20223,648
Dec 20213,528
Nov 20213,300
Oct 20213,780
Sept 20213,648
Aug 20213,948
Jul 20213,480
Jun 20213,480
May 20213,528
Apr 20213,444
Feb 20213,456
Jan 20213,060
Dec 20203,036
Nov 20202,616
Oct 20202,820
Sept 20203,876
Aug 20204,468
Jul 20204,224
Jun 20203,300
May 20203,108
Apr 20203,120
Mar 20202,976
Feb 20203,792
Jan 20203,360
Dec 20192,448
Nov 20192,448
Oct 20192,448
Sept 20192,364
Aug 20192,568
Jul 20192,328
Jun 20192,328
May 20192,388
Feb 20192,208
Jan 20192,400
Dec 20182,448
Nov 20182,208
Oct 20182,448
Sept 20183,180
Aug 20183,432
Jul 20183,432
Jun 20183,432
May 20183,432
Apr 20183,432
Mar 20182,940
Feb 20182,940
Jan 20182,940
Dec 20172,940
Nov 20172,940
Oct 20172,940
Sept 20174,140
Aug 20173,276
Jul 20173,924
Jun 20173,780
May 20173,612
Apr 20173,552
Mar 20173,252
Feb 20173,108
Jan 20172,664
Nov 20162,220
Oct 20162,892
Sept 20162,892
Aug 20162,664
Jun 20162,664
May 20162,892
Apr 20162,220
Mar 20162,004
Feb 20162,004
Jan 20162,004
Dec 20152,004
Oct 20152,376
Sept 20152,172
Aug 20152,196
Jul 20152,184
Jun 20152,184
May 20152,364
Apr 20152,160
Mar 20151,942
Feb 20152,174
Jan 20151,992
Nov 20142,310
Oct 20142,637
Sept 20142,856
Aug 20142,900
Jul 20143,280
Jun 20143,022
May 20142,786
Apr 20142,893
Mar 20142,857
Feb 20142,854
Jan 20142,945
Dec 20133,208
Nov 20133,297
Jul 20133,792
Jun 20133,297
May 20133,597
Apr 20133,565
Mar 20133,238
Jan 20132,957
Dec 20123,324
Nov 20123,600
Oct 20122,781
Sept 20123,817
Aug 20124,188
Jul 20124,188
May 20123,543
Apr 20123,294
Dec 20112,807
Nov 20112,640
Oct 20112,112
Sept 20112,088
Jul 20112,128
Jun 20112,160
May 20112,160
Apr 20111,944
Mar 20111,739
Jan 20111,766
Dec 20101,734
Nov 20101,565
Oct 20101,769
Sept 20102,360
Aug 20102,844
Jul 20102,887
Jun 20102,815
May 20102,715
Apr 20102,533
Mar 20102,365
Feb 20102,442
Jan 20102,604
Dec 20092,143
Nov 20092,520
Oct 20092,334
Sept 20092,640
Aug 20093,042
Jul 20092,880
Jun 20092,412
May 20092,463
Apr 20092,424
Mar 20092,430
Feb 20092,406
Jan 20092,388
Dec 20082,284
Nov 20082,013
Oct 20081,932
Sept 20082,112
Aug 20082,256
Jul 20082,148
Jun 20081,908
May 20081,860
Apr 20081,884
Mar 20081,896
Feb 20081,776
Jan 20081,464

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186