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Food basket in Agadez Commune

Agadez, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,793–4,033

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,707–4,200

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,960 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,793 and 4,033 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,707 and 4,200 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Agadez Commune: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,960 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,793 and 4,033 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,707 and 4,200 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,285–4,101 3,727 2,974–4,202
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,011–3,994 3,340 2,448–4,038
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,793–4,033 3,241 2,545–4,296
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,718–4,131 3,264 2,282–4,953
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,707–4,200 3,303 2,393–5,137
Cost history (419 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,684
Aug 20263,960
Jul 20263,888
Jun 20263,540
May 20263,396
Apr 20263,336
Mar 20263,360
Feb 20263,360
Jan 20263,600
Dec 20253,540
Nov 20253,216
Oct 20253,264
Sept 20253,600
Aug 20254,320
Jul 20254,800
Jun 20254,656
May 20254,800
Apr 20254,800
Mar 20254,524
Feb 20254,356
Jan 20254,308
Dec 20243,936
Nov 20243,960
Oct 20244,776
Sept 20245,988
Aug 20246,144
Jul 20245,784
Jun 20245,160
May 20244,392
Apr 20243,804
Mar 20243,696
Feb 20243,576
Jan 20243,576
Dec 20233,552
Nov 20233,792
Sept 20234,032
Aug 20234,020
Jul 20233,792
Jun 20233,792
May 20233,792
Apr 20233,792
Mar 20233,972
Feb 20233,804
Jan 20233,792
Dec 20223,996
Nov 20223,888
Sept 20224,224
Aug 20224,224
Jul 20224,224
Jun 20224,236
May 20224,152
Apr 20224,116
Mar 20224,152
Feb 20223,792
Jan 20223,732
Dec 20213,636
Nov 20213,792
Oct 20213,480
Sept 20214,020
Aug 20213,828
Jul 20213,768
Jun 20213,516
May 20213,516
Apr 20213,552
Mar 20213,552
Feb 20213,324
Jan 20212,988
Dec 20202,964
Nov 20203,084
Oct 20203,492
Sept 20204,248
Aug 20203,828
Jul 20203,675
Jun 20203,324
May 20202,940
Apr 20202,832
Mar 20202,832
Feb 20202,604
Jan 20202,604
Dec 20192,592
Nov 20192,592
Oct 20192,820
Sept 20192,760
Aug 20192,652
Jul 20192,664
Jun 20192,832
May 20192,820
Apr 20192,820
Mar 20192,772
Feb 20192,772
Jan 20192,904
Dec 20182,976
Nov 20183,000
Oct 20183,144
Sept 20183,624
Aug 20183,624
Jul 20183,624
Jun 20183,624
May 20183,384
Apr 20183,084
Mar 20183,084
Feb 20183,084
Jan 20183,084
Dec 20173,084
Nov 20173,084
Oct 20173,084
Sept 20173,744
Aug 20173,972
Jul 20173,756
Jun 20173,528
May 20173,984
Apr 20173,132
Mar 20173,132
Feb 20173,132
Jan 20173,000
Nov 20163,156
Oct 20163,036
Sept 20163,036
Aug 20163,012
Jul 20162,976
Jun 20163,000
Feb 20162,556
Jan 20162,556
Dec 20152,748
Oct 20153,000
Sept 20153,024
Aug 20153,036
Jul 20152,712
Jun 20152,712
May 20152,760
Apr 20152,940
Mar 20152,846
Feb 20152,769
Jan 20152,940
Dec 20143,216
Nov 20143,158
Oct 20143,769
Sept 20144,225
Aug 20144,000
Jul 20143,846
Jun 20143,396
May 20143,488
Apr 20143,488
Mar 20143,600
Feb 20143,591
Jan 20143,571
Dec 20133,571
Oct 20133,680
Sept 20134,286
Aug 20134,269
Jul 20134,213
Jun 20133,810
May 20133,804
Apr 20133,612
Mar 20133,333
Feb 20133,327
Jan 20133,083
Dec 20123,096
Oct 20122,798
Sept 20124,032
Aug 20124,035
Jul 20123,924
May 20123,502
Apr 20123,492
Mar 20123,028
Feb 20123,036
Jan 20123,054
Dec 20112,795
Nov 20112,691
Oct 20112,268
Sept 20112,176
Aug 20112,328
Jul 20112,326
Jun 20112,136
May 20112,328
Apr 20112,328
Mar 20112,328
Feb 20112,256
Jan 20112,157
Dec 20102,260
Nov 20102,006
Oct 20102,134
Sept 20102,659
Aug 20102,976
Jul 20102,988
Jun 20103,000
May 20102,920
Apr 20102,546
Mar 20102,568
Feb 20102,568
Jan 20102,568
Dec 20092,582
Nov 20092,478
Oct 20092,376
Sept 20092,832
Aug 20093,015
Jul 20092,694
Jun 20092,592
May 20092,568
Apr 20092,598
Mar 20092,595
Feb 20092,578
Jan 20092,588
Dec 20082,370
Nov 20082,172
Oct 20082,376
Sept 20082,592
Aug 20082,484
Jul 20082,352
Jun 20082,160
May 20082,136
Apr 20082,124
Mar 20082,136
Feb 20081,908
Jan 20081,884
Dec 20071,860
Oct 20071,888
Sept 20071,911
Aug 20072,035
Jul 20072,020
Jun 20072,005
May 20072,031
Apr 20072,022
Mar 20072,037
Feb 20071,992
Jan 20071,927
Dec 20061,890
Oct 20062,062
Sept 20062,225
Aug 20062,387
Jul 20062,317
Jun 20062,137
May 20062,176
Apr 20062,018
Mar 20062,065
Feb 20062,134
Jan 20062,105
Dec 20052,126
Nov 20052,085
Oct 20052,088
Sept 20053,418
Aug 20054,041
Jul 20053,621
Jun 20052,702
May 20052,678
Apr 20052,582
Mar 20052,342
Feb 20052,038
Jan 20052,082
Dec 20041,909
Oct 20041,912
Sept 20041,980
Aug 20042,054
Jul 20041,885
Jun 20041,772
May 20041,760
Apr 20041,672
Mar 20041,601
Feb 20041,526
Jan 20041,459
Dec 20031,426
Oct 20031,417
Sept 20031,607
Aug 20031,664
Jul 20031,799
Jun 20031,935
May 20031,922
Apr 20031,890
Mar 20031,936
Feb 20032,016
Jan 20031,982
Dec 20021,866
Nov 20021,848
Oct 20021,920
Sept 20022,562
Aug 20022,748
Jul 20022,436
Jun 20022,532
May 20022,376
Apr 20022,286
Mar 20022,088
Feb 20022,118
Jan 20021,804
Dec 20011,836
Nov 20011,800
Oct 20011,896
Sept 20012,520
Aug 20012,712
Jul 20012,688
Jun 20012,688
May 20012,508
Apr 20012,760
Mar 20012,256
Feb 20011,896
Jan 20011,824
Dec 20002,124
Oct 20001,656
Sept 20001,656
Aug 20001,596
Jul 20001,596
Jun 20001,716
May 20001,584
Apr 20001,524
Mar 20001,404
Feb 20001,452
Jan 20001,296
Dec 19991,452
Oct 19991,284
Sept 19991,296
Aug 19991,416
Jul 19991,452
Jun 19991,260
May 19991,224
Apr 19991,224
Mar 19991,260
Feb 19991,212
Jan 19991,236
Dec 19981,356
Nov 19981,416
Oct 19981,572
Sept 19982,520
Aug 19983,024
Jul 19982,628
Jun 19982,736
May 19982,916
Apr 19982,532
Mar 19982,124
Feb 19982,112
Jan 19981,992
Dec 19971,944
Nov 19971,884
Oct 19971,692
Sept 19972,052
Aug 19972,328
Jul 19972,256
Jun 19972,064
May 19972,052
Apr 19972,052
Mar 19971,692
Feb 19971,704
Jan 19971,452
Dec 19961,452
Oct 19961,260
Sept 19961,848
Aug 19961,932
Jul 19961,452
Jun 19961,512
May 19961,500
Apr 19961,320
Mar 19961,080
Feb 19961,068
Jan 19961,008
Dec 19951,056
Oct 1995912
Sept 19951,020
Aug 19951,104
Jul 19951,008
Jun 1995948
May 1995816
Apr 1995828
Mar 1995900
Feb 1995888
Jan 1995876
Dec 1994756
Oct 1994972
Sept 19941,020
Aug 19941,128
Jul 19941,236
Jun 19941,020
May 1994924
Apr 1994972
Mar 1994984
Feb 1994924
Jan 1994636
Dec 1993624
Oct 1993708
Sept 1993768
Aug 1993816
Jul 1993888
Jun 1993804
May 1993780
Apr 1993804
Mar 1993876
Feb 1993900
Jan 1993924
Dec 1992804
Nov 1992864
Oct 1992912
Sept 1992948
Aug 1992984
Jul 19921,140
Jun 1992840
May 1992756
Apr 1992756
Mar 1992684
Feb 1992684
Jan 1992804
Oct 1991660
Sept 1991912
Aug 19911,164
Jul 19911,128
Jun 1991996
May 1991972
Apr 1991984
Mar 1991996
Feb 19911,020
Jan 1991852
Dec 1990780
Nov 1990768
Oct 1990828
Sept 1990876
Aug 1990828
Jul 1990864
Jun 1990780
May 1990816
Apr 1990816
Mar 1990720
Feb 1990720
Jan 1990756

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186