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Food basket in Arlit

Agadez, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,621–3,676

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,472–3,837

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,444 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,621 and 3,676 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,472 and 3,837 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Arlit: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,444 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,621 and 3,676 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,472 and 3,837 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,045–3,681 3,329 2,753–3,726
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,816–3,622 3,186 2,436–3,883
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,621–3,676 3,121 2,101–4,043
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,506–3,760 3,093 1,907–4,041
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,472–3,837 3,100 1,996–4,052
Cost history (368 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,372
Aug 20263,444
Jul 20263,420
Jun 20263,264
May 20263,444
Apr 20263,324
Mar 20263,264
Feb 20263,372
Jan 20263,468
Dec 20253,552
Nov 20253,480
Oct 20253,612
Sept 20253,948
Aug 20254,032
Jul 20254,272
Jun 20254,272
May 20254,104
Apr 20254,104
Mar 20254,104
Feb 20254,164
Jan 20254,104
Dec 20243,996
Nov 20244,080
Oct 20244,620
Sept 20245,700
Aug 20245,988
Jul 20245,808
Jun 20244,680
May 20244,332
Apr 20243,996
Mar 20244,056
Feb 20243,876
Jan 20243,876
Dec 20233,876
Nov 20233,876
Oct 20233,996
Sept 20233,876
Aug 20233,876
Jun 20233,876
May 20233,912
Apr 20233,876
Mar 20233,876
Feb 20233,876
Jan 20233,876
Dec 20223,876
Nov 20223,108
Oct 20223,876
Sept 20223,876
Aug 20223,876
Jul 20223,876
Jun 20223,876
May 20223,876
Apr 20223,876
Mar 20224,044
Feb 20224,032
Jan 20223,804
Dec 20213,480
Nov 20213,660
Oct 20213,204
Sept 20213,972
Aug 20213,768
Jul 20213,672
Jun 20213,612
May 20213,660
Apr 20213,552
Mar 20213,432
Feb 20213,324
Jan 20213,012
Dec 20202,232
Nov 20203,240
Oct 20203,240
Sept 20203,204
Aug 20203,318
Jul 20203,252
Jun 20203,216
May 20203,660
Apr 20203,432
Mar 20203,084
Feb 20202,736
Jan 20202,736
Dec 20192,976
Nov 20192,736
Oct 20192,964
Sept 20192,964
Aug 20192,976
Jul 20192,736
Jun 20192,976
Apr 20192,976
Mar 20192,976
Feb 20192,976
Jan 20192,976
Nov 20182,976
Oct 20182,976
Sept 20182,976
Aug 20183,432
Jul 20183,432
Apr 20183,204
Mar 20182,976
Feb 20182,976
Jan 20183,096
Dec 20172,976
Nov 20173,168
Oct 20173,204
Sept 20173,432
Aug 20173,876
Jun 20174,044
May 20173,432
Apr 20173,432
Feb 20173,060
Jan 20172,736
Nov 20163,204
Oct 20163,276
Sept 20163,204
Aug 20162,880
Jul 20162,880
Jun 20162,748
May 20162,748
Mar 20162,748
Feb 20162,748
Jan 20162,748
Dec 20152,664
Oct 20152,748
Sept 20152,748
Aug 20152,748
Jul 20152,892
Jun 20152,976
May 20152,976
Apr 20152,976
Mar 20152,977
Feb 20152,866
Jan 20152,748
Nov 20143,118
Oct 20143,182
Sept 20143,206
Aug 20143,188
Jul 20143,188
Jun 20143,188
May 20143,200
Apr 20143,200
Mar 20143,200
Feb 20143,212
Jan 20143,188
Dec 20133,042
Nov 20132,977
Oct 20132,979
Sept 20133,283
Aug 20133,429
Jul 20133,422
Jun 20133,403
May 20133,416
Apr 20133,408
Mar 20133,165
Feb 20133,226
Jan 20133,263
Dec 20122,769
Nov 20122,838
Oct 20122,840
Sept 20122,846
Aug 20123,661
Jul 20123,780
May 20123,393
Apr 20123,228
Mar 20123,120
Feb 20122,948
Jan 20122,880
Dec 20112,840
Nov 20112,844
Oct 20112,604
Sept 20112,604
Jul 20112,604
Jun 20112,857
May 20112,820
Apr 20112,830
Mar 20112,608
Feb 20112,353
Jan 20112,351
Dec 20102,340
Nov 20102,340
Oct 20102,372
Sept 20102,832
Aug 20103,068
Jul 20102,827
Jun 20102,822
May 20102,840
Apr 20102,858
Mar 20102,847
Feb 20102,923
Jan 20103,056
Dec 20093,067
Nov 20093,000
Oct 20092,820
Sept 20093,048
Aug 20093,056
Jul 20092,938
Jun 20092,820
May 20092,835
Apr 20092,820
Mar 20092,805
Feb 20092,805
Jan 20092,816
Dec 20082,712
Nov 20082,551
Oct 20082,352
Sept 20082,736
Aug 20082,820
Jul 20082,808
Jun 20082,328
May 20082,328
Apr 20082,352
Mar 20082,220
Feb 20082,136
Jan 20082,136
Dec 20072,075
Nov 20071,887
Oct 20071,923
Sept 20072,008
Aug 20072,108
Jul 20072,118
Jun 20072,128
May 20072,134
Apr 20072,132
Mar 20072,131
Feb 20072,118
Jan 20072,134
Dec 20062,101
Nov 20061,870
Oct 20062,071
Sept 20062,328
Aug 20062,353
Jul 20062,330
Jun 20062,346
May 20062,353
Apr 20062,367
Mar 20062,369
Feb 20062,353
Jan 20062,118
Dec 20052,118
Nov 20051,903
Oct 20052,045
Sept 20052,964
Aug 20053,323
Jul 20053,298
Jun 20052,823
May 20052,799
Apr 20052,566
Mar 20052,467
Feb 20052,326
Jan 20052,093
Dec 20042,114
Nov 20042,101
Oct 20041,891
Sept 20041,957
Aug 20042,101
Jul 20042,014
Jun 20042,023
May 20042,109
Apr 20041,869
Mar 20041,860
Feb 20041,641
Jan 20041,453
Dec 20031,420
Nov 20031,449
Oct 20031,439
Sept 20031,606
Aug 20031,637
Jul 20031,917
Jun 20032,109
May 20032,113
Apr 20032,112
Mar 20032,088
Feb 20032,076
Jan 20032,076
Dec 20022,136
Nov 20021,950
Oct 20021,812
Sept 20022,712
Aug 20022,640
Jul 20022,382
Jun 20022,268
May 20022,268
Apr 20022,280
Mar 20022,280
Feb 20022,274
Jan 20021,964
Dec 20011,812
Nov 20011,764
Oct 20011,824
Sept 20012,268
Aug 20012,868
Jul 20012,460
Jun 20012,232
Apr 20012,616
Mar 20012,052
Feb 20011,920
Jan 20011,920
Dec 20001,872
Nov 20001,644
Oct 20001,704
Sept 20001,692
Aug 20001,704
Jul 20001,704
Jun 20001,656
May 20001,596
Apr 20001,524
Mar 20001,416
Feb 20001,416
Jan 20001,416
Oct 19991,308
Sept 19991,524
Aug 19991,476
Jul 19991,452
Apr 19991,344
Mar 19991,344
Feb 19991,344
Jan 19991,380
Dec 19981,320
Nov 19981,428
Oct 19981,488
Sept 19982,112
Aug 19982,784
Jul 19982,676
Jun 19982,640
May 19982,820
Apr 19982,256
Mar 19982,088
Feb 19981,920
Jan 19981,932
Dec 19971,968
Nov 19971,992
Oct 19971,632
Sept 19972,148
Aug 19972,316
Jul 19972,160
Jun 19972,136
May 19972,172
Apr 19971,944
Mar 19971,728
Feb 19971,668
Jan 19971,428
Dec 19961,404
Nov 19961,404
Oct 19961,392
Sept 19961,620
Aug 19961,764
Jul 19961,524
Jun 19961,512
May 19961,608
Apr 19961,416
Mar 19961,356
Nov 19951,128
Oct 1995960
Sept 19951,092
Aug 19951,176
Jul 19951,092
Jun 19951,032
May 1995996
Apr 19951,056
Mar 19951,056
Feb 19951,008
Nov 1994780
Oct 19941,140
Aug 19941,212
Jun 19941,104
May 1994996
Apr 1994996
Mar 19941,008
Feb 1994936
Jan 1994996

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186