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Food basket in Ayorou

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,293–3,590

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,222–3,838

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,384 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,293 and 3,590 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,222 and 3,838 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Ayorou: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,384 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,293 and 3,590 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,222 and 3,838 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,772–3,671 3,191 2,517–3,877
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,382–3,524 2,850 2,153–4,023
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,293–3,590 2,787 2,188–3,893
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,344–3,725 2,811 2,140–3,914
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,222–3,838 2,855 1,872–4,099
Cost history (195 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,480
Aug 20263,384
Jul 20263,972
Jun 20264,188
May 20263,792
Apr 20263,348
Mar 20263,396
Feb 20262,952
Jan 20263,108
Dec 20253,252
Nov 20253,060
Oct 20252,892
Sept 20253,276
Aug 20253,624
Jul 20253,792
Jun 20253,792
May 20253,792
Apr 20253,792
Mar 20253,768
Feb 20254,056
Jan 20253,684
Dec 20243,876
Nov 20244,128
Oct 20243,972
Sept 20244,908
Aug 20245,796
Jul 20245,556
Jun 20244,920
May 20244,608
Apr 20244,512
Mar 20244,164
Feb 20243,816
Jan 20243,792
Dec 20233,552
Nov 20233,384
Oct 20233,384
Sept 20234,224
Aug 20234,440
Jul 20234,224
Jun 20234,224
May 20234,224
Apr 20233,804
Mar 20233,804
Feb 20233,804
Jan 20233,804
Dec 20223,780
Nov 20222,844
Oct 20223,600
Sept 20224,344
Aug 20224,344
Jul 20224,284
Jun 20224,140
Apr 20224,224
Mar 20223,804
Feb 20223,804
Jan 20223,384
Dec 20213,384
Nov 20212,952
Oct 20212,868
Sept 20213,480
Aug 20213,384
Jul 20213,384
Jun 20212,988
May 20213,396
Apr 20212,952
Mar 20212,796
Feb 20212,952
Jan 20212,952
Dec 20202,256
Nov 20202,952
Oct 20203,432
Sept 20203,432
Aug 20204,284
Jul 20202,952
Jun 20202,988
May 20203,048
Apr 20202,532
Mar 20202,640
Feb 20202,532
Jan 20202,544
Dec 20192,688
Nov 20192,472
Oct 20192,568
Sept 20192,544
Jul 20191,848
Jun 20192,844
May 20192,532
Apr 20192,568
Mar 20192,604
Feb 20192,604
Jan 20192,604
Dec 20182,532
Nov 20182,532
Oct 20182,532
Sept 20183,048
Aug 20183,480
Jul 20183,480
May 20183,480
Mar 20182,952
Feb 20183,000
Jan 20183,048
Dec 20172,988
Nov 20172,568
Oct 20172,604
Sept 20172,832
Aug 20173,480
Jul 20173,480
Jun 20173,480
May 20173,480
Apr 20173,048
Mar 20172,604
Feb 20172,604
Jan 20172,604
Nov 20162,568
Oct 20162,568
Sept 20162,868
Aug 20163,000
Jul 20162,532
Jun 20162,592
May 20162,604
Apr 20162,604
Mar 20162,604
Feb 20162,604
Jan 20162,604
Dec 20152,604
Oct 20152,568
Sept 20152,568
Aug 20152,616
Jul 20152,604
Jun 20152,604
May 20152,532
Apr 20152,532
Mar 20152,500
Feb 20152,527
Jan 20152,436
Nov 20142,597
Oct 20142,602
Sept 20142,877
Aug 20142,877
Jul 20143,043
Jun 20143,043
May 20142,949
Apr 20142,854
Mar 20142,838
Feb 20142,906
Jan 20142,571
Dec 20132,571
Nov 20132,535
Oct 20132,556
Sept 20133,000
Aug 20133,084
Jul 20133,088
Jun 20133,088
May 20132,958
Apr 20132,916
Mar 20133,134
Jan 20132,535
Dec 20122,772
Nov 20122,772
Oct 20123,392
Sept 20123,569
Aug 20124,179
Jul 20123,954
May 20124,064
Apr 20123,396
Dec 20112,988
Nov 20112,568
Oct 20112,632
Sept 20112,616
Jul 20112,724
Jun 20112,748
May 20112,668
Apr 20112,800
Mar 20112,628
Feb 20112,564
Jan 20112,337
Dec 20102,172
Nov 20102,250
Oct 20102,636
Sept 20102,962
Aug 20103,120
Jul 20103,211
May 20102,770
Apr 20102,814
Feb 20102,679
Jan 20102,708
Dec 20092,688
Nov 20092,688
Oct 20092,280
Sept 20092,889
Aug 20093,134
Jul 20092,968
May 20092,692
Apr 20092,738
Mar 20092,778

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186