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Food basket in Badaguichiri

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,756–2,952

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,866–3,121

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,940 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,756 and 2,952 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,866 and 3,121 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Badaguichiri: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,940 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,756 and 2,952 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,866 and 3,121 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,334–3,039 2,663 2,233–3,180
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,916–2,895 2,356 1,819–3,037
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,756–2,952 2,179 1,626–3,041
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,997–3,195 2,426 1,754–3,354
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,866–3,121 2,382 1,681–3,760
Cost history (161 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20262,760
Aug 20262,940
Jul 20263,360
Jun 20262,880
May 20262,484
Apr 20262,400
Mar 20262,400
Feb 20262,520
Jan 20262,304
Oct 20252,304
Sept 20252,640
Aug 20253,000
Jul 20253,360
Jun 20253,360
May 20253,360
Apr 20253,360
Mar 20253,540
Feb 20253,480
Jan 20253,300
Oct 20243,180
Sept 20244,140
Aug 20245,040
Jul 20245,184
Jun 20244,320
May 20244,080
Apr 20243,936
Mar 20243,588
Feb 20243,180
Jan 20243,072
Oct 20233,276
Aug 20234,164
Jul 20233,576
Jun 20233,336
May 20233,096
Apr 20233,096
Feb 20233,060
Oct 20222,904
Sept 20223,144
Aug 20223,624
Jul 20223,576
Jun 20223,588
Apr 20223,468
Mar 20223,336
Feb 20223,336
Jan 20223,120
Dec 20213,240
Sept 20213,372
Aug 20213,648
Jul 20213,648
Jun 20213,288
May 20213,120
Apr 20213,012
Mar 20212,916
Feb 20212,772
Jan 20212,448
Dec 20202,928
Nov 20202,148
Sept 20203,036
Aug 20203,604
Jul 20203,462
Apr 20202,484
Mar 20202,376
Feb 20202,232
Jan 20202,004
Nov 20191,896
Oct 20191,764
Aug 20191,992
Jul 20191,956
Jun 20192,280
May 20192,172
Apr 20192,244
Mar 20192,232
Feb 20192,220
Jan 20191,980
Dec 20182,196
Sept 20182,676
Aug 20182,640
Jul 20183,120
Mar 20182,652
Feb 20182,652
Jan 20182,400
Nov 20172,220
Sept 20172,844
Aug 20173,864
Jul 20173,804
Jun 20173,600
May 20173,588
Apr 20173,504
Mar 20172,892
Feb 20173,000
Jan 20172,640
Nov 20162,196
Oct 20162,136
Aug 20163,096
Jun 20162,640
May 20162,040
Apr 20161,920
Mar 20161,908
Feb 20161,896
Jan 20161,896
Oct 20152,148
Sept 20152,172
Jul 20152,340
Jun 20152,184
May 20152,172
Apr 20152,016
Mar 20151,928
Feb 20151,926
Jan 20151,920
Aug 20142,698
Jul 20142,633
May 20142,851
Mar 20142,590
Feb 20142,970
Jan 20142,619
Dec 20132,723
Nov 20132,388
Oct 20132,508
Sept 20133,570
Aug 20133,588
Jul 20133,384
Jun 20133,264
May 20133,204
Apr 20133,228
Mar 20133,120
Jan 20132,832
Dec 20122,868
Sept 20122,913
Aug 20123,185
Jul 20123,590
May 20123,107
Apr 20122,904
Nov 20112,195
Sept 20111,884
Jul 20112,256
Jun 20112,232
May 20112,226
Apr 20112,328
Jan 20111,792
Dec 20101,932
Nov 20101,601
Sept 20102,051
Aug 20102,780
Jul 20102,640
Jun 20102,723
May 20102,475
Apr 20102,132
Mar 20102,214
Feb 20102,217
Jan 20102,112
Dec 20092,112
Nov 20092,112
Sept 20092,184
Aug 20092,353
Jul 20092,262
Jun 20091,998
May 20091,984
Apr 20092,016
Mar 20091,959
Feb 20091,996
Jan 20092,057

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186