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Food basket in Bankilare

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,478–4,320

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,741–4,669

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,488 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,478 and 4,320 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,741 and 4,669 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Bankilare: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,488 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,478 and 4,320 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,741 and 4,669 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 6,315); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,622–4,662 4,208 3,052–4,941
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,857–4,271 3,434 2,284–4,628
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,478–4,320 3,212 2,071–4,569
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,673–4,444 3,381 2,179–5,437
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,741–4,669 3,462 2,271–6,315
Cost history (168 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20264,320
Aug 20264,488
Jul 20264,428
Jun 20263,864
May 20263,600
Apr 20263,588
Mar 20263,564
Feb 20263,564
Jan 20263,492
Dec 20253,564
Nov 20253,564
Oct 20253,540
Sept 20253,996
Aug 20254,416
Jul 20254,416
Jun 20254,440
May 20253,924
Apr 20253,588
Mar 20253,552
Feb 20253,564
Dec 20243,468
Nov 20243,600
Oct 20243,840
Sept 20245,484
Aug 20245,244
Jul 20245,328
Jun 20244,932
May 20244,560
Apr 20244,092
Mar 20244,284
Feb 20244,032
Jan 20243,936
Dec 20233,240
Nov 20232,676
Oct 20233,588
Sept 20234,920
Aug 20234,716
Jul 20234,332
Jun 20234,032
May 20233,948
Apr 20233,780
Mar 20233,480
Feb 20233,216
Jan 20233,108
Dec 20222,688
Nov 20222,688
Oct 20223,996
Sept 20224,656
Aug 20225,004
Jul 20224,920
Jun 20224,476
May 20224,476
Apr 20224,392
Mar 20224,032
Feb 20224,032
Jan 20223,588
Dec 20213,288
Nov 20212,688
Oct 20213,036
Sept 20213,324
Aug 20213,492
Jul 20213,264
Jun 20213,072
May 20213,108
Apr 20213,048
Feb 20212,640
Jan 20212,604
Dec 20203,048
Nov 20202,208
Oct 20202,820
Sept 20203,588
Aug 20203,778
Jul 20203,240
Jun 20203,132
May 20202,940
Apr 20202,766
Mar 20202,688
Feb 20202,688
Jan 20202,664
Dec 20192,556
Nov 20192,484
Oct 20192,616
Sept 20192,688
Aug 20192,688
Jul 20192,952
Jun 20192,760
May 20192,736
Apr 20192,868
Mar 20192,868
Oct 20182,172
Sept 20183,324
Aug 20183,432
Jun 20183,456
May 20183,516
Apr 20183,564
Feb 20183,024
Jan 20183,024
Dec 20172,496
Nov 20172,604
Oct 20172,088
Sept 20172,856
Jun 20173,300
May 20173,180
Apr 20172,952
Mar 20172,772
Feb 20172,616
Jan 20172,532
Nov 20162,532
Oct 20162,472
Sept 20163,612
Aug 20163,048
Jul 20163,264
Jun 20163,000
May 20162,532
Oct 20152,484
Sept 20152,556
Aug 20152,772
Jul 20152,748
Jun 20153,072
May 20152,592
Apr 20152,364
Jan 20152,018
Nov 20142,083
Oct 20141,964
Sept 20142,802
Aug 20143,033
Jul 20143,029
Jun 20143,000
May 20143,043
Apr 20142,609
Mar 20142,571
Jan 20142,532
Sept 20132,979
Aug 20133,001
Jul 20132,973
Jun 20132,952
May 20132,572
Nov 20121,878
Oct 20121,740
Sept 20124,338
Aug 20124,319
Jul 20124,176
May 20124,001
Apr 20123,618
Dec 20113,081
Nov 20112,188
Oct 20112,208
Sept 20112,328
Jul 20112,322
Jun 20112,348
May 20112,528
Apr 20112,260
Mar 20112,214
Oct 20101,812
Sept 20102,787
Aug 20102,974
Jul 20102,818
Jun 20102,571
May 20102,535
Apr 20102,688
Oct 20092,604
Sept 20092,812
Aug 20093,000
Jul 20092,904
Jun 20092,375
May 20092,535
Apr 20092,532
Mar 20092,532

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186