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Food basket in Birnin Gaoure

Dosso, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,878–2,963

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,890–3,155

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,964 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,878 and 2,963 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,890 and 3,155 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Birnin Gaoure: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,964 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,878 and 2,963 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,890 and 3,155 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,486–3,095 2,741 2,196–3,164
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,070–2,961 2,436 1,876–3,003
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,878–2,963 2,302 1,667–3,128
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,907–3,048 2,350 1,666–3,294
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,890–3,155 2,398 1,641–3,802
Cost history (198 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20262,904
Aug 20262,964
Jul 20262,964
Jun 20262,964
May 20262,736
Apr 20262,736
Mar 20262,736
Feb 20262,736
Jan 20262,532
Dec 20252,280
Nov 20252,412
Oct 20252,520
Sept 20252,676
Aug 20253,144
Jul 20253,192
Jun 20253,168
May 20253,180
Apr 20253,108
Mar 20253,108
Feb 20253,396
Jan 20253,348
Dec 20243,096
Nov 20242,904
Oct 20243,360
Sept 20243,828
Aug 20244,980
Jul 20244,620
Jun 20244,176
May 20243,684
Apr 20243,552
Mar 20243,420
Feb 20243,180
Jan 20243,216
Dec 20233,000
Nov 20232,916
Oct 20233,072
Sept 20233,720
Aug 20233,720
Jul 20233,108
Jun 20233,060
May 20232,820
Apr 20232,664
Mar 20232,664
Feb 20232,664
Jan 20232,664
Dec 20222,616
Nov 20222,616
Oct 20222,724
Sept 20223,168
Aug 20223,336
Jul 20223,336
Jun 20223,336
May 20223,336
Apr 20223,204
Mar 20223,108
Feb 20222,940
Jan 20222,664
Dec 20212,664
Nov 20212,664
Oct 20212,676
Sept 20213,000
Aug 20213,108
Jul 20213,108
Jun 20213,108
May 20212,964
Apr 20212,664
Mar 20212,664
Feb 20212,664
Jan 20212,400
Dec 20202,220
Nov 20202,220
Oct 20202,220
Sept 20203,276
Aug 20203,110
Jul 20202,664
Jun 20202,508
May 20202,400
Apr 20202,220
Mar 20202,220
Feb 20202,004
Jan 20201,908
Dec 20191,776
Nov 20191,776
Oct 20192,004
Sept 20192,220
Jul 20192,280
Jun 20192,448
May 20192,448
Apr 20192,220
Mar 20192,220
Feb 20192,220
Jan 20192,196
Dec 20182,064
Nov 20182,004
Oct 20182,220
Sept 20182,664
Aug 20182,892
Jul 20182,892
May 20182,784
Apr 20182,664
Mar 20182,964
Feb 20182,664
Jan 20182,664
Dec 20172,664
Oct 20172,220
Aug 20173,780
Jul 20173,780
Jun 20173,564
May 20172,892
Apr 20172,688
Mar 20172,484
Feb 20172,280
Jan 20171,656
Nov 20161,860
Oct 20162,472
Sept 20162,688
Aug 20162,640
Jul 20162,064
Jun 20162,532
May 20162,496
Apr 20162,412
Mar 20162,400
Feb 20162,400
Jan 20162,400
Dec 20152,160
Oct 20152,472
Sept 20152,388
Aug 20152,652
Jul 20152,736
Jun 20152,472
May 20152,460
Apr 20152,640
Mar 20152,419
Feb 20152,419
Jan 20152,424
Nov 20142,143
Oct 20142,097
Sept 20142,584
Aug 20142,903
Jul 20143,089
Jun 20143,114
May 20143,064
Apr 20143,039
Mar 20142,963
Feb 20142,895
Jan 20142,924
Dec 20132,903
Nov 20132,903
Oct 20132,903
Sept 20133,624
Aug 20133,629
Jul 20133,629
Jun 20133,978
May 20133,629
Apr 20133,569
Mar 20133,031
Jan 20133,145
Dec 20123,144
Nov 20122,903
Oct 20122,903
Sept 20123,790
Aug 20123,871
Jul 20123,871
May 20123,629
Apr 20123,024
Dec 20112,424
Nov 20112,424
Oct 20112,424
Sept 20112,172
Jul 20112,348
Jun 20112,664
May 20112,424
Apr 20112,424
Mar 20112,172
Jan 20111,935
Dec 20101,938
Nov 20101,939
Oct 20101,935
Sept 20102,097
Aug 20103,145
Jul 20103,145
Jun 20102,866
May 20102,903
Apr 20102,806
Mar 20102,664
Feb 20102,664
Jan 20102,664
Dec 20092,184
Nov 20092,020
Oct 20091,852
Sept 20092,784
Aug 20092,915
Jul 20092,664
Jun 20092,664
May 20092,672
Mar 20092,672
Feb 20092,661
Jan 20092,491

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186