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Food basket in Bouza

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,736–2,785

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,740–2,974

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,628 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,736 and 2,785 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,740 and 2,974 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Bouza: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,628 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,736 and 2,785 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,740 and 2,974 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,151–2,815 2,416 1,944–2,969
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,784–2,699 2,122 1,685–2,806
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,736–2,785 2,106 1,634–2,798
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,792–2,897 2,159 1,603–3,479
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,740–2,974 2,192 1,492–3,610
Cost history (190 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20262,376
Aug 20262,628
Jul 20263,108
Jun 20262,880
May 20262,724
Apr 20262,400
Mar 20262,196
Feb 20262,256
Jan 20262,424
Dec 20252,412
Nov 20252,436
Oct 20252,484
Sept 20252,736
Aug 20253,192
Jul 20254,056
Jun 20253,612
May 20253,096
Apr 20253,156
Mar 20253,432
Feb 20253,456
Jan 20253,492
Dec 20243,228
Nov 20242,964
Oct 20243,408
Sept 20243,336
Aug 20244,596
Jul 20244,560
Jun 20244,344
May 20244,032
Apr 20243,792
Mar 20243,576
Feb 20243,528
Jan 20243,084
Dec 20233,408
Nov 20233,480
Oct 20233,228
Sept 20233,684
Aug 20234,164
Jul 20233,468
Jun 20233,336
May 20233,204
Apr 20233,156
Mar 20233,084
Feb 20233,420
Jan 20233,012
Dec 20222,748
Nov 20222,508
Oct 20222,676
Sept 20223,216
Aug 20223,852
Jul 20223,636
Jun 20223,372
Apr 20223,828
Mar 20223,456
Feb 20223,432
Jan 20223,072
Dec 20213,072
Nov 20212,976
Oct 20212,892
Sept 20213,516
Aug 20213,516
Jul 20213,468
Jun 20213,372
May 20213,372
Apr 20213,180
Mar 20213,192
Feb 20213,696
Jan 20212,868
Dec 20202,448
Nov 20202,088
Oct 20202,340
Sept 20203,216
Aug 20203,490
Jul 20202,964
Jun 20202,664
May 20202,460
Apr 20202,508
Mar 20202,508
Feb 20202,460
Jan 20202,460
Dec 20192,328
Nov 20192,316
Oct 20192,088
Sept 20192,172
Aug 20192,328
Jul 20192,004
Jun 20192,328
May 20192,388
Apr 20192,328
Mar 20192,328
Feb 20192,112
Jan 20192,172
Dec 20182,304
Nov 20182,220
Oct 20182,088
Sept 20182,088
Aug 20183,036
Jul 20183,144
Jan 20182,532
Dec 20172,532
Nov 20172,520
Oct 20172,652
Sept 20173,516
Aug 20173,960
Jul 20173,516
Jun 20173,456
Apr 20173,192
Mar 20172,784
Feb 20172,832
Nov 20161,956
Oct 20161,728
Sept 20163,036
Aug 20163,000
Jul 20162,568
May 20162,244
Apr 20162,184
Mar 20162,184
Feb 20162,184
Jan 20162,160
Dec 20151,944
Oct 20152,028
Sept 20152,256
Aug 20152,208
Jul 20152,172
Jun 20152,136
May 20152,172
Apr 20152,196
Mar 20151,727
Feb 20152,050
Jan 20151,860
Nov 20141,727
Oct 20141,989
Sept 20142,158
Aug 20142,611
Jul 20142,871
Jun 20142,816
May 20142,723
Apr 20142,836
Mar 20142,804
Feb 20142,657
Jan 20142,658
Dec 20132,737
Nov 20132,592
Oct 20132,614
Sept 20133,593
Aug 20134,120
Jul 20133,971
Jun 20133,542
May 20133,327
Apr 20133,375
Mar 20133,249
Jan 20133,123
Dec 20123,333
Nov 20122,844
Oct 20122,814
Sept 20122,806
Aug 20123,364
Jul 20123,180
May 20122,832
Dec 20112,779
Jul 20112,100
Jun 20112,148
May 20111,920
Apr 20112,088
Feb 20112,158
Jan 20112,102
Dec 20101,828
Nov 20101,596
Oct 20101,500
Sept 20102,031
Aug 20102,737
Jul 20102,737
Jun 20102,708
May 20102,840
Apr 20102,456
Mar 20102,472
Feb 20102,508
Jan 20102,460
Dec 20092,352
Nov 20092,346
Oct 20092,184
Sept 20092,649
Aug 20092,734
Jul 20092,547
Jun 20092,274
May 20092,325
Apr 20092,244
Mar 20092,208
Feb 20092,291
Jan 20092,324

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186