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Food basket in Filingue

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,167–3,421

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,100–3,516

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,360 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,167 and 3,421 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,100 and 3,516 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Filingue: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,360 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,167 and 3,421 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,100 and 3,516 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,661–3,459 3,002 2,388–3,614
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,248–3,352 2,635 2,060–3,490
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,167–3,421 2,606 1,940–3,480
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,176–3,472 2,630 1,969–3,735
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,100–3,516 2,694 1,747–3,739
Cost history (351 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,300
Aug 20263,360
Jul 20263,480
Jun 20263,360
May 20263,180
Apr 20263,060
Mar 20263,120
Feb 20262,796
Jan 20263,204
Dec 20253,552
Nov 20253,300
Oct 20253,000
Sept 20253,036
Aug 20253,720
Jul 20254,260
Jun 20254,140
May 20254,140
Apr 20254,140
Mar 20254,080
Feb 20253,996
Jan 20253,480
Dec 20243,744
Nov 20243,660
Oct 20243,540
Sept 20245,244
Aug 20245,124
Jul 20244,884
Jun 20244,236
May 20243,840
Apr 20244,296
Mar 20243,276
Feb 20243,840
Jan 20243,096
Dec 20233,396
Nov 20233,600
Oct 20233,600
Sept 20234,488
Feb 20233,624
Dec 20223,600
Nov 20222,736
Oct 20223,240
Sept 20224,392
Aug 20224,344
Jul 20224,500
Jun 20224,176
May 20224,260
Apr 20224,080
Mar 20223,840
Feb 20224,200
Jan 20223,600
Dec 20213,540
Nov 20213,360
Oct 20213,024
Sept 20213,600
Aug 20213,600
Jul 20213,456
Jun 20213,360
May 20213,360
Apr 20213,312
Feb 20213,048
Jan 20212,808
Dec 20202,364
Nov 20202,424
Oct 20202,412
Sept 20203,456
Aug 20203,720
Jul 20203,465
Jun 20202,880
May 20202,820
Apr 20202,820
Mar 20202,820
Feb 20202,820
Jan 20202,340
Dec 20192,700
Nov 20193,240
Oct 20192,880
Sept 20193,240
Jul 20193,384
Jun 20193,036
May 20193,216
Apr 20193,432
Mar 20193,432
Feb 20193,432
Dec 20182,856
Nov 20182,868
Oct 20183,132
Sept 20183,528
Aug 20183,996
Jul 20183,996
May 20183,492
Mar 20183,468
Feb 20183,156
Jan 20183,156
Dec 20173,036
Nov 20172,880
Oct 20172,880
Sept 20174,080
Jul 20173,600
May 20173,360
Apr 20173,360
Feb 20173,120
Jan 20173,120
Nov 20162,400
Sept 20163,360
Aug 20162,880
Jul 20162,880
Jun 20162,880
May 20162,640
Apr 20162,640
Mar 20162,640
Feb 20162,400
Jan 20162,400
Dec 20152,400
Oct 20152,520
Sept 20152,640
Aug 20152,652
Jul 20152,520
Jun 20152,520
May 20152,520
Apr 20152,520
Mar 20152,520
Feb 20152,521
Jan 20152,520
Nov 20142,521
Oct 20142,434
Sept 20142,773
Aug 20143,025
Jul 20143,277
May 20143,025
Apr 20143,025
Mar 20143,025
Feb 20143,025
Jan 20142,773
Dec 20132,781
Nov 20132,856
Oct 20132,773
Sept 20133,300
Aug 20133,528
Jul 20133,528
May 20133,024
Apr 20133,277
Mar 20133,214
Feb 20132,772
Jan 20132,520
Dec 20122,689
Nov 20122,772
Oct 20122,521
Sept 20123,782
Aug 20123,782
Jul 20123,780
May 20123,528
Apr 20123,528
Mar 20123,276
Feb 20123,228
Jan 20123,228
Dec 20113,030
Sept 20112,520
Jul 20112,472
Jun 20112,472
May 20112,472
Apr 20112,270
Feb 20112,222
Jan 20112,222
Dec 20102,220
Nov 20102,222
Sept 20103,188
Aug 20103,210
Jul 20103,210
Jun 20103,045
May 20102,593
Mar 20102,904
Feb 20102,652
Jan 20102,652
Dec 20092,664
Nov 20092,172
Oct 20092,178
Sept 20092,688
Aug 20092,927
Jul 20092,808
Jun 20092,561
May 20092,602
Apr 20092,436
Mar 20092,436
Feb 20092,439
Jan 20092,274
Dec 20082,058
Nov 20081,789
Oct 20081,656
Sept 20082,532
Aug 20082,844
Jul 20082,892
Jun 20082,352
May 20082,256
Apr 20082,256
Mar 20082,256
Feb 20082,256
Jan 20081,740
Dec 20071,687
Nov 20071,607
Oct 20071,558
Sept 20071,704
Aug 20071,946
Jul 20071,918
Jun 20071,803
May 20071,755
Apr 20071,752
Mar 20071,757
Feb 20071,743
Jan 20071,794
Dec 20061,728
Nov 20061,699
Oct 20061,444
Sept 20061,846
Aug 20062,471
Jul 20062,264
Jun 20062,248
May 20062,262
Apr 20062,155
Mar 20062,223
Feb 20062,172
Jan 20062,255
Dec 20051,967
Nov 20051,670
Oct 20051,803
Sept 20051,902
Aug 20053,908
Jul 20053,608
Jun 20053,066
May 20052,739
Apr 20052,590
Mar 20052,458
Feb 20052,156
Jan 20052,083
Dec 20041,798
Nov 20041,585
Oct 20041,529
Sept 20041,711
Aug 20041,914
Jul 20041,816
Jun 20041,673
May 20041,607
Apr 20041,564
Mar 20041,579
Feb 20041,538
Jan 20041,551
Dec 20031,519
Nov 20031,449
Oct 20031,361
Sept 20031,551
Aug 20031,752
Jul 20031,813
Jun 20031,811
Mar 20032,313
Feb 20032,148
Jan 20031,812
Dec 20021,668
Nov 20021,344
Oct 20021,428
Sept 20021,950
Aug 20023,006
Jul 20022,850
Jun 20022,712
May 20022,592
Jan 20021,908
Dec 20011,548
Nov 20011,548
Oct 20011,542
Sept 20011,416
Aug 20011,992
Dec 20001,770
Nov 20001,404
Sept 20001,656
Aug 20002,616
Jul 20001,536
Jun 20001,536
May 20001,554
Apr 20001,464
Mar 20001,518
Feb 20001,512
Jan 20001,316
Dec 19991,008
Nov 19991,224
Oct 19991,260
Sept 19991,140
Aug 19991,368
Jul 19991,404
Jun 19991,284
May 19991,248
Apr 19991,404
Feb 19991,344
Jan 19991,044
Dec 1998996
Nov 19981,260
Oct 19981,248
Sept 19981,620
Aug 19982,748
Jul 19983,060
Jun 19982,640
May 19982,616
Apr 19982,700
Mar 19982,004
Feb 19982,040
Jan 19981,992
Dec 19971,668
Nov 19971,596
Oct 19971,644
Sept 19971,692
Aug 19972,400
Jul 19972,352
Jun 19972,040
May 19972,136
Apr 19971,956
Mar 19971,788
Feb 19971,500
Jan 19971,416
Dec 19961,224
Nov 19961,116
Oct 1996960
Sept 19961,380
Aug 19961,860
Jul 19961,656
Jun 19961,584
May 19961,656
Apr 19961,452
Mar 19961,224
Feb 19961,020
Jan 1996984
Dec 1995828
Nov 1995816
Oct 1995708
Sept 1995732
Aug 1995888
Jul 1995864
Jun 1995948
May 19951,008
Apr 1995900
Mar 1995948
Feb 1995768
Jan 1995768
Dec 1994612
Nov 1994732
Oct 1994672
Sept 1994852
Aug 19941,128
Jul 19941,092
Jun 19941,068
May 19941,080
Apr 1994960
Mar 1994972
Feb 19941,032
Jan 19941,008

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186