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Food basket in Gotheye

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,601–3,968

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,396–4,102

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,792 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,601 and 3,968 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,396 and 4,102 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Gotheye: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,792 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,601 and 3,968 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,396 and 4,102 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,317–4,185 3,713 2,848–4,551
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,719–3,995 3,195 2,325–4,236
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,601–3,968 3,110 2,396–4,209
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,500–3,993 3,061 2,179–4,548
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,396–4,102 3,118 1,897–5,057
Cost history (194 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,756
Aug 20263,792
Jul 20264,044
Jun 20263,504
May 20263,732
Apr 20263,384
Mar 20263,552
Feb 20263,408
Jan 20263,240
Dec 20253,240
Nov 20253,240
Oct 20253,312
Sept 20253,732
Aug 20254,056
Jul 20254,416
Jun 20254,188
May 20254,200
Apr 20254,200
Mar 20254,188
Feb 20254,056
Jan 20253,840
Dec 20243,696
Nov 20243,696
Oct 20243,960
Sept 20245,484
Aug 20245,844
Jul 20245,940
Jun 20245,172
May 20244,656
Apr 20244,560
Mar 20244,224
Feb 20243,912
Jan 20243,480
Dec 20233,168
Nov 20233,564
Oct 20233,252
Sept 20233,828
Aug 20234,440
Jul 20233,384
Jun 20233,324
May 20233,192
Apr 20233,228
Mar 20233,060
Feb 20233,468
Jan 20233,492
Dec 20223,156
Nov 20222,820
Oct 20222,964
Sept 20224,632
Aug 20224,848
Jul 20225,052
Jun 20224,644
May 20224,500
Apr 20224,500
Mar 20224,200
Feb 20224,632
Jan 20224,404
Dec 20214,224
Nov 20214,128
Oct 20213,300
Sept 20214,248
Aug 20213,672
Jul 20213,336
Jun 20213,336
May 20213,000
Apr 20213,000
Mar 20212,556
Feb 20212,772
Jan 20212,736
Dec 20202,556
Nov 20202,664
Oct 20203,384
Sept 20204,692
Aug 20204,399
Jul 20203,672
Jun 20203,564
May 20203,252
Apr 20203,336
Mar 20203,336
Feb 20203,084
Jan 20202,832
Dec 20192,664
Nov 20193,000
Oct 20192,856
Sept 20192,856
Aug 20193,000
Jul 20193,072
Jun 20193,048
May 20193,144
Apr 20192,604
Mar 20192,604
Feb 20192,772
Jan 20192,460
Dec 20182,460
Nov 20182,772
Oct 20182,436
Sept 20182,640
Jul 20182,880
Mar 20182,400
Feb 20182,400
Jan 20182,160
Dec 20172,400
Nov 20172,400
Oct 20172,280
Sept 20173,480
Aug 20172,880
Jun 20173,096
May 20173,096
Apr 20172,196
Mar 20172,088
Feb 20172,280
Oct 20163,156
Sept 20163,468
Aug 20162,544
Jul 20162,604
Jun 20162,604
May 20162,604
Apr 20162,400
Mar 20162,400
Feb 20162,400
Jan 20161,920
Dec 20151,920
Oct 20153,000
Sept 20153,000
Aug 20153,000
Jul 20153,000
Jun 20153,000
May 20153,000
Apr 20153,000
Mar 20153,000
Feb 20153,000
Jan 20153,000
Nov 20143,000
Oct 20143,000
Sept 20143,000
Aug 20143,000
Jul 20143,000
Jun 20143,000
May 20143,000
Apr 20143,000
Mar 20143,000
Feb 20143,000
Jan 20143,000
Dec 20133,000
Nov 20133,000
Oct 20133,000
Sept 20133,000
Aug 20133,000
Jul 20133,000
Jun 20133,000
May 20133,000
Apr 20133,000
Mar 20133,000
Jan 20132,769
Dec 20122,462
Nov 20122,148
Oct 20124,105
Sept 20124,421
Aug 20124,421
Jul 20124,421
May 20123,711
Apr 20123,468
Dec 20113,098
Nov 20113,000
Oct 20113,072
Sept 20113,072
Jul 20113,077
Jun 20113,072
May 20113,114
Apr 20113,156
Mar 20113,156
Jan 20112,333
Nov 20101,948
Oct 20102,350
Sept 20103,309
Aug 20102,880
Jul 20102,880
Jun 20102,863
May 20103,021
Mar 20102,436
Feb 20102,688
Jan 20102,481
Dec 20092,568
Nov 20092,357
Oct 20092,154
Sept 20093,692
Aug 20093,378
Jul 20093,601
Jun 20093,692
May 20093,282
Apr 20093,072
Mar 20093,072
Feb 20092,658
Jan 20092,145

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186