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Food basket in Goudoumaria

Diffa, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,795–2,928

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,669–2,998

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,748 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,795 and 2,928 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,669 and 2,998 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Goudoumaria: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,748 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,795 and 2,928 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,669 and 2,998 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,199–2,941 2,493 1,992–3,072
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,811–2,841 2,159 1,647–2,951
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,795–2,928 2,168 1,653–2,963
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,789–2,969 2,167 1,627–3,448
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,669–2,998 2,155 1,429–3,281
Cost history (194 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20262,784
Aug 20262,748
Jul 20263,048
Jun 20263,036
May 20262,796
Apr 20262,424
Mar 20262,412
Feb 20262,220
Jan 20261,992
Dec 20252,016
Nov 20252,220
Oct 20252,232
Sept 20252,304
Aug 20252,868
Jul 20253,300
Jun 20253,444
May 20253,420
Apr 20253,276
Mar 20253,384
Feb 20253,336
Jan 20253,432
Dec 20243,240
Nov 20243,312
Oct 20243,444
Sept 20243,900
Aug 20245,640
Jul 20244,944
Jun 20244,200
May 20243,948
Apr 20243,744
Mar 20243,684
Feb 20243,492
Jan 20243,480
Dec 20233,576
Nov 20233,336
Oct 20233,420
Sept 20234,656
Aug 20234,500
Jul 20233,912
Jun 20233,912
May 20233,696
Apr 20233,372
Mar 20233,360
Feb 20232,412
Jan 20232,868
Dec 20223,120
Nov 20222,952
Oct 20223,636
Sept 20223,816
Aug 20224,008
Jul 20223,720
Jun 20223,684
May 20223,252
Apr 20223,624
Mar 20223,600
Feb 20223,540
Jan 20223,264
Dec 20213,168
Nov 20213,096
Oct 20212,700
Sept 20213,684
Aug 20214,320
Jul 20214,368
Jun 20213,852
May 20213,576
Apr 20213,684
Mar 20213,504
Feb 20213,240
Jan 20212,508
Dec 20202,856
Nov 20203,048
Oct 20202,412
Sept 20203,384
Aug 20203,304
Jul 20203,228
Jun 20203,072
May 20202,688
Apr 20202,829
Mar 20202,460
Feb 20202,184
Jan 20202,136
Dec 20192,400
Nov 20192,448
Oct 20192,316
Sept 20192,316
Jul 20192,280
Jun 20192,376
May 20192,400
Apr 20192,412
Mar 20192,412
Feb 20192,304
Jan 20192,304
Dec 20182,400
Nov 20182,400
Oct 20182,400
Aug 20183,072
Jul 20183,072
Jun 20182,856
May 20182,784
Apr 20182,700
Mar 20182,952
Feb 20182,952
Jan 20182,916
Dec 20172,880
Nov 20173,024
Oct 20173,096
Sept 20173,096
Aug 20174,152
Jul 20174,152
Jun 20173,612
May 20173,624
Apr 20173,048
Mar 20173,048
Feb 20172,832
Jan 20172,832
Nov 20162,148
Oct 20162,148
Sept 20163,540
Aug 20163,540
Jul 20162,904
Jun 20162,604
May 20162,604
Feb 20162,304
Jan 20162,376
Dec 20152,496
Oct 20152,244
Sept 20152,400
Aug 20152,436
Jul 20152,436
Jun 20152,808
May 20152,700
Apr 20152,604
Mar 20152,775
Feb 20152,973
Jan 20152,814
Nov 20143,344
Oct 20143,267
Sept 20143,291
Aug 20143,348
Jul 20143,312
Jun 20143,240
May 20142,789
Apr 20142,789
Mar 20143,110
Feb 20143,672
Jan 20143,672
Dec 20133,672
Nov 20133,414
Oct 20133,558
Sept 20133,786
Aug 20134,036
Jul 20134,225
Jun 20133,792
May 20133,561
Apr 20133,498
Mar 20133,226
Jan 20133,110
Dec 20122,786
Nov 20122,776
Oct 20122,765
Sept 20123,464
Aug 20123,573
Jul 20123,223
May 20123,456
Apr 20123,456
Dec 20112,544
Nov 20112,544
Oct 20112,412
Sept 20112,340
Jul 20112,484
Jun 20112,316
May 20112,292
Apr 20112,334
Mar 20112,388
Jan 20112,332
Dec 20102,088
Nov 20101,872
Oct 20102,199
Sept 20102,586
Aug 20102,942
Jul 20102,950
Jun 20102,840
May 20102,229
Feb 20102,376
Jan 20102,604
Dec 20092,492
Nov 20092,334
Oct 20092,316
Sept 20092,616
Aug 20092,807
Jul 20092,364
Jun 20092,400
May 20092,304
Apr 20092,400

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186