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Food basket in Ingall

Agadez, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,635–3,745

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,650–3,915

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,720 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,635 and 3,745 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,650 and 3,915 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Ingall: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,720 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,635 and 3,745 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,650 and 3,915 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,228–3,852 3,520 3,019–4,003
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,800–3,693 3,129 2,410–3,802
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,635–3,745 3,059 2,271–3,761
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,550–3,817 3,015 2,119–4,223
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,650–3,915 3,109 2,394–4,691
Cost history (195 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,396
Aug 20263,720
Jul 20263,648
Jun 20263,312
May 20263,120
Apr 20263,060
Mar 20262,832
Feb 20262,832
Jan 20262,820
Dec 20253,036
Nov 20252,952
Oct 20252,916
Sept 20253,216
Aug 20253,672
Jul 20254,224
Jun 20254,224
May 20254,224
Apr 20254,212
Mar 20254,140
Feb 20254,116
Jan 20253,984
Dec 20243,768
Nov 20243,900
Oct 20244,800
Sept 20246,324
Aug 20245,760
Jul 20245,172
Jun 20244,740
May 20244,608
Apr 20244,392
Mar 20244,032
Feb 20244,032
Jan 20243,792
Dec 20233,768
Nov 20233,696
Oct 20233,792
Sept 20234,620
Aug 20234,248
Jul 20233,900
Jun 20233,768
May 20233,756
Apr 20233,756
Mar 20233,528
Feb 20233,792
Jan 20233,792
Dec 20223,756
Nov 20223,732
Oct 20223,684
Sept 20224,200
Aug 20224,668
Jun 20224,224
Apr 20224,224
Mar 20224,224
Feb 20224,224
Jan 20223,756
Dec 20213,756
Nov 20213,792
Oct 20213,792
Sept 20214,152
Aug 20214,032
Jul 20213,780
Jun 20213,732
May 20213,756
Apr 20213,684
Mar 20213,504
Feb 20213,504
Jan 20213,360
Dec 20202,628
Nov 20203,036
Oct 20203,108
Sept 20203,960
Aug 20203,559
Jul 20203,264
Jun 20203,276
May 20203,132
Apr 20203,060
Mar 20203,060
Feb 20202,916
Jan 20202,784
Dec 20192,796
Nov 20192,688
Oct 20192,556
Sept 20192,724
Aug 20192,808
Jul 20192,820
Jun 20192,808
May 20192,796
Apr 20192,796
Mar 20192,796
Feb 20192,748
Jan 20192,748
Dec 20182,736
Nov 20182,748
Oct 20182,748
Sept 20183,120
Aug 20183,492
Jul 20183,528
Jun 20183,264
May 20183,300
Apr 20183,300
Mar 20183,264
Feb 20183,264
Jan 20183,324
Dec 20173,324
Nov 20173,324
Oct 20173,060
Sept 20174,236
Aug 20174,032
Jul 20174,032
Jun 20174,116
Apr 20173,300
Mar 20173,216
Feb 20173,060
Jan 20173,000
Nov 20162,928
Oct 20163,252
Sept 20163,432
Aug 20163,204
Jul 20162,772
Jun 20162,460
May 20162,556
Feb 20162,592
Jan 20162,628
Dec 20152,748
Oct 20152,700
Sept 20152,964
Aug 20153,024
Jul 20152,916
Jun 20153,084
May 20153,108
Apr 20153,156
Mar 20153,172
Feb 20153,172
Jan 20152,864
Nov 20143,436
Oct 20143,965
Sept 20143,965
Aug 20143,965
Jul 20143,960
Jun 20143,672
May 20143,856
Apr 20143,673
Mar 20143,529
Feb 20143,529
Jan 20143,469
Dec 20133,529
Nov 20133,529
Oct 20133,529
Sept 20133,765
Aug 20133,765
Jul 20133,881
Jun 20133,735
May 20133,827
Apr 20133,857
Mar 20133,673
Jan 20133,684
Dec 20123,443
Nov 20123,420
Oct 20123,522
Sept 20123,691
Aug 20123,918
Jul 20123,648
May 20123,204
Apr 20123,014
Dec 20112,924
Nov 20112,700
Oct 20112,508
Sept 20112,508
Jul 20112,604
Jun 20112,556
May 20112,424
Apr 20112,281
Mar 20112,251
Feb 20112,326
Jan 20112,326
Nov 20102,333
Oct 20102,373
Sept 20102,700
Aug 20102,771
Jul 20102,737
Jun 20102,692
May 20102,765
Jan 20102,742
Dec 20092,676
Nov 20092,685
Oct 20092,781
Sept 20092,820
Aug 20093,024
Jul 20092,736
Jun 20092,731
May 20092,770
Apr 20092,754
Mar 20092,752
Feb 20092,656
Jan 20092,714

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186