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Food basket in Karofane

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,046–3,488

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,128–3,723

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,360 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,046 and 3,488 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,128 and 3,723 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Karofane: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,360 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,046 and 3,488 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,128 and 3,723 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,710–3,544 3,046 2,384–3,724
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,256–3,458 2,724 1,937–3,556
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,046–3,488 2,621 1,715–3,589
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,140–3,547 2,685 1,823–3,727
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,128–3,723 2,785 1,691–3,825
Cost history (172 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,000
Aug 20263,360
Jul 20263,720
Jun 20263,744
May 20263,288
Apr 20263,156
Mar 20263,240
Feb 20262,820
Jan 20262,880
Dec 20252,688
Nov 20252,676
Oct 20252,676
Sept 20252,904
Aug 20253,312
Jul 20254,164
Jun 20254,452
May 20254,260
Apr 20254,212
Mar 20254,128
Feb 20253,960
Jan 20254,128
Dec 20243,900
Nov 20243,744
Oct 20243,120
Sept 20243,600
Aug 20246,192
Jul 20245,940
Jun 20245,352
May 20244,788
Apr 20244,608
Mar 20244,176
Feb 20244,116
Jan 20243,924
Dec 20233,504
Nov 20233,420
Oct 20233,648
Sept 20234,488
Aug 20234,488
Jun 20234,176
May 20234,248
Apr 20234,056
Mar 20234,056
Feb 20233,768
Jan 20233,468
Dec 20223,348
Nov 20223,840
Oct 20223,756
Sept 20223,168
Aug 20225,028
Jul 20224,440
Jun 20224,440
May 20224,368
Apr 20224,272
Mar 20224,272
Feb 20224,176
Jan 20223,612
Dec 20213,444
Nov 20213,276
Oct 20214,476
Sept 20214,476
Aug 20214,440
Jul 20214,356
Jun 20213,996
May 20213,912
Apr 20213,912
Mar 20213,576
Feb 20213,564
Jan 20213,096
Dec 20202,460
Nov 20202,640
Oct 20203,000
Sept 20203,468
Aug 20203,924
Jul 20203,252
Jun 20203,252
May 20203,324
Apr 20203,180
Mar 20203,132
Feb 20202,928
Jan 20202,736
Dec 20192,400
Nov 20192,256
Oct 20192,148
Sept 20192,532
Aug 20192,400
Jun 20192,892
May 20193,036
Apr 20192,424
Mar 20192,424
Feb 20192,352
Jan 20192,424
Dec 20182,496
Nov 20182,376
Oct 20182,496
Sept 20183,432
Aug 20183,660
Jul 20183,876
Jun 20183,912
May 20183,576
Apr 20183,396
Mar 20183,360
Feb 20182,952
Jan 20183,288
Dec 20172,724
Nov 20172,868
Oct 20173,348
Sept 20173,468
Jul 20173,720
Jun 20173,660
May 20173,624
Apr 20173,636
Mar 20173,084
Feb 20172,688
Jan 20172,688
Nov 20161,824
Oct 20161,824
Sept 20163,396
Aug 20163,396
Jul 20162,916
Jun 20162,712
May 20162,712
Apr 20162,424
Mar 20162,748
Feb 20162,748
Jan 20162,544
Dec 20152,424
Oct 20152,484
Sept 20152,484
Aug 20152,508
Jul 20152,472
Jun 20152,448
May 20152,088
Apr 20152,100
Mar 20151,959
Feb 20151,978
Jan 20151,668
Nov 20142,077
Oct 20141,964
Sept 20142,103
Aug 20142,842
Jul 20143,000
Feb 20142,982
Oct 20132,832
May 20123,036
Apr 20122,916
Dec 20113,276
Nov 20112,388
Oct 20111,770
Sept 20112,012
Jul 20112,160
May 20112,208
Apr 20112,216
Feb 20112,158
Jan 20112,005
Dec 20101,710
Nov 20101,554
Sept 20102,947
Aug 20102,921
Jul 20102,782
Jun 20102,880
May 20102,756
Apr 20102,638
Feb 20102,520
Jan 20102,310
Dec 20091,896
Nov 20092,340
Oct 20091,963
Sept 20092,382
Aug 20092,725
Jul 20092,478
May 20092,091
Apr 20092,004

Track record of the basket forecasts in Niger

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 84% 97% 5% 2,204
Estimate (this month) 80% 96% 7% 2,199
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,193
In 2 months 73% 95% 12% 2,188
In 3 months 69% 94% 15% 2,186